Belgium: pre-race 2018

So. Bad luck this year. It continues. You’d think I flung a hand grenade into a hall of mirrors before the season started.

Q1 was pretty much as expected with the Williams and McLarens both departing. However, there was a bit of a surprise with Sainz dropping out too, fastest of those exiting at this stage. Ironically, his team mate mate Hulkenberg made it through but will start at the back due to engine penalties.

Hulkenberg did not bother setting a time in Q2, and it was a little surprising that both Saubers were eliminated (a sign of just how much progress they’ve made this year). Both Toro Rossos, with whom Sauber are locked in a tight battle in the Constructors’, also failed to progress, qualifying ahead of the Sauber pairing.

At this stage, all looked fine. Raikkonen seemed in strong contention for a top 2 finish.

Then it started to rain. Raikkonen clocked the fastest time and, had the rain intensified, that would’ve been splendid. Instead, he came into the pits (unsure if that was a bad strategy call of a reliability failing), and the rain lessened. Before you could say alakazam he was 6^th. And had no chance at all of putting in a faster time to prevent that decline down the grid.

Hamilton and Vettel got the front row but, very impressively, Ocon and Perez got the second row for Force India. That’s pretty tasty, and they might be able to stay in the top 6 (though I fully expect a pair of irate Finns to surge past them). Grosjean qualified 5^th, with Verstappen and Ricciardo on the fourth row (ironically going backwards in the wet, contrary to the usual improvement). Magnussen qualified 9^th and Bottas, starting at the back with engine penalties, didn’t bother getting his boots wet.

So, humbug to the weather ruining my bet but there’s not much that can be done about that.

The weather forecast, for what that’s worth, is for the race to be dry.

My initial thoughts on betting were:

Raikkonen podium

Ocon/Perez top 6

Raikkonen is just 1.4 for a podium. Bit tight.

Ocon and Perez are 1.9 and 2.2 respectively to be top 6. There’s also a double top 6 finish market, with Force India at 3.75.

A perusal of the markets threw up:

Ferrari, double podium finish, 1.72

Force India, double classified, 1.44

Renault, double classified, 1.57

Force India, double points finish, 1.72

Raikkonen, fastest lap, 7

Sirotkin, to be classified, 1.5

Ricciardo/Verstappen, not to be classified, 4 (each)

With Bottas starting at the back and even the Red Bulls a day and a half behind everyone else, a Ferrari double podium finish is effectively a bet on them having a race without a crash or reliability failure. The odds aren’t long, but still quite tempting (provided it doesn’t rain…).

Force India and Renault are the joint 3^rd most reliable team, with 4 total DNFs, compared to 3 for Mercedes and Ferrari. Odds of just under and just over 1.5 aren’t very long, but may still be worth a shot.

On a similar note, Force India start 3^rd and 4^th and are highly likely to finish in the points. At 1.72, that may be better value than the 1.44 to be doubly classified.

Raikkonen often gets fastest laps. He is very good around Spa. And his car is probably the fastest. So his odds of 7 may be worth a look.

Sirotkin has had 3 DNFs this season. Fewer than the Red Bulls, Grosjean and Hartley, and equal to Ocon, Hulkenberg, Stroll, Grosjean, Alonso, Vandoorne, Leclerc and Gasly. Why his odds on being classified are 1.5 I don’t know, but it’s a shade too long.

Ricciardo and Verstappen have 4 DNFs each, a rate of 33%. The odds of 4 therefore represent some value.

I quite like a lot of those, though none stands out as magnificent value. So, quite a lot to look at. Got to admit, I’m tempted to follow Mr. Sandpit’s suggestion and reduce my stakes, spraying smaller sums on a wide array of bets.

Bets which I think are value:

Ferrari, double podium finish, 1.72

Force India, double points finish, 1.72

Ricciardo/Verstappen, not to be classified, 4 (each)

I’m going to pair up the not to be classified bets, and pair up the doubles bets, so it’s half a stake on each one. And if Raikkonen gets the fastest lap I reserve the right to brood angrily.

Just as I’d decided that and moved to put the bets on, new markets appeared, and one had two clear value bets.

Betting without Hamilton and Vettel (each way fifth the odds top 3)

Backed Ricciardo at 7.5, and Bottas at 9, both each way

The Mercedes and Ferrari are in a league of their own here and I’d be unsurprised to see Bottas rise all the way to 5^th. Similarly, Red Bull, whilst behind the top 2 teams, are miles ahead of the rest. It’s entirely possible both could be top 5, and remarkable if neither were.

Didn’t intend to make quite so many bets, but there we are. Smaller stakes perhaps wise to take account of the four tips.

Just one final note: I’ll probably be delayed posting the post-race ramble tomorrow. May go up on Monday instead.

Morris Dancer