Belgium: post-race analysis 2018
The race was a little
less exciting than it might have been, but once all the results were
shaken out it was mildly profitable and told us quite a bit about the
state of play. Namely, Ferrari are fastest, certainly in a straight
line. Next time we’re in Monza, which is mostly straight lines.
Good news for pub owners in Italy, one thinks.
Off the line the top
few were all in order. However, danger was afoot. Hulkenberg had a
massive double lock up (no brake failure he just screwed up) and
ploughed into Alonso’s rear. The Spaniard’s car pirouetted
through the air, smacking into Leclerc’s and causing a chain
reaction that ultimately saw all the named fellows as well as
Raikkonen and Ricciardo retire.
Just past Eau Rouge,
Vettel got in Hamilton’s slipstream and used the superior Ferrari
horsepower to sweep past the Mercedes. The Force Indias were very
close, and Ocon was passed by Perez.
The safety car emerged.
Raikkonen, who had a puncture at this stage, limped to the pits.
Ricciardo’s rear wing was wrecked and I was astounded to see the
team opted to change it and put him out a couple of laps down. Bottas
had run into the back of a Williams and came in for an early stop and
a fresh nose.
Hamilton was unable to
pass Vettel with a similar manoeuvre when the safety car came in.
Thereafter the German gradually extended his lead. Further down the
field, Bottas was making steady progress, and both Raikkonen and
Ricciardo were a little more sluggish. The Finn of Ferrari ultimately
had to retire due to rear wing problems and the Aussie decided to
save engine mileage when he was still a lap down around lap 30.
Verstappen had had a
trouble free race and managed to pass both Force Indias. He had a bit
of a lonely time, too slow to catch the two frontrunners, too fast to
be concerned by those behind him (Red Bull fears of a rampant Bottas
were overcooked, though had the Finn not made an early pit stop he
may well have ended up on the podium).
After the pit stops
Hamilton was just a second and a half behind Vettel, yet the
Ferrari’s pace advantage was, if anything, even better on the soft
tyre than the supersoft. Vettel effortlessly increased the gap, an
ominous sign for Mercedes ahead of Monza.
Perez and Ocon drove
well to finish 5th and 6th, a great result for
the team who, having been brought under new ownership, move
immediately off of zero points and are now just behind Sauber. Behind
them came Grosjean and Magnussen, a very strong finish for the team
vying with Renault for best of the rest.
Speaking of Renault,
they had a nightmare of a day, with a lap 1 DNF for Hulkenberg and
Sainz just 11th.
Gasly nabbed 9th
and Ericsson 10th, both good results (Gasly will be glad
to score after embarrassing himself a smidge in qualifying by
spinning at the pit lane exit).
Sirotkin and Stroll
both finished pointlessly, with Hartley and Vandoorne bringing up the
rear. Not great for McLaren, to finish slowest and not at all.
Having made eleven
thousand bets, some were bound to come off. I finished a tiny bit
ahead for the race. Which makes a nice change. If Red Bull had run
Verstappen to the end I might have been a shade displeased.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 231
Vettel 214
The gap is narrowed by
7 points to just 17. Hamilton remains top, but Monza is thought to be
very tasty for Ferrari. I think Force India and Haas might like it
too.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 375
Ferrari 360
Red Bull 238
Renault 82
Haas 76
McLaren 52
Toro Rosso 30
Sauber 19
Force India 18
Williams 4
It looks near certain
Force India will end up ahead of Toro Rosso. The question is whether
they can catch McLaren. Today was a very good result for the ‘new’
team and an advantage of 34 points in eight remaining races is
eminently possible, though still a big ask. At the sharp end, it’s
tight between the top two, with Red Bull in a little league all of
their own. Renault I expect to suffer from Haas passing them in
Monza, but tighter circuits will help the French team.
Monza is in just a
week, so we’ll see how that ends up turning out. I think it’ll be
a good day for the Tifosi.
Morris Dancer
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