Belgium: pre-qualifying 2018

There have bee one or two driver announcements in the mid-season interval, following Ricciardo leaving Red Bull for Renault. Alonso is out, leaving F1, with his McLaren seat being taken by Sainz. It remains to be seen who will be the team mate of the younger Spaniard. Most think it’ll be Norris or Vandoorne.

Gasly has been named as Verstappen’s team mate, which isn’t a huge surprise. We have no confirmation as yet regarding Raikkonen or Leclerc for the second Ferrari seat, though the Finn may well retain it (had seemed nailed on the young Monegasque would get the seat, but the change in Ferrari leadership may have changed that).

It’s also believed Stroll will end up going to Force India, though who his team mate will be (should it happen) is uncertain.

Speaking of Force India, it’s been quite a turbulent time. They emerged from administration, brought about by Perez (ironically) to prevent a worse financial move by a different creditor, only to have all their points removed. So they’re now bottom of the Constructors’. They’ll probably overhaul Williams pronto and then surpass Toro Rosso and Sauber into the season, but it’d be a big ask for them to catch up to the likes of McLaren in the races remaining.

The mid-season break usually seems very long, but after four races in quick succession it actually felt like a nice break. Anyway, teams will have had some mandatory time off, as well as continuing their work trying to develop the cars.

It seems that Bottas may have a big engine upgrade, and changes mean he’ll start from the back of the grid. Same goes for Hulkenberg. The Ferraris and Hamilton also have upgraded engines but no corresponding penalty.

Happily, we return to F1 with a proper circuit: Spa. Can be soggy sometimes, has great corners, some gravel traps, and a layout that can suit either a low or high downforce setup.

It’s almost impossible to tell at this stage who’s made marginal gains, but the vast gap between the top three and the rest of the field will not have been bridged. It’s simply too huge a difference to narrow significantly over a few weeks (or, indeed, a season).

Vettel topped first practice, a tenth and a half ahead of Verstappen, who was an equal margin ahead of Hamilton. Raikkonen and Bottas followed with Ricciardo nearly a second off the Finns. Ocon, Hulkenberg, Perez, and Sainz round out the top 10.

In second practice Raikkonen was top, ahead of Hamilton. Bottas, Verstappen, Vettel and Ricciardo completed the top chaps, and Perez was best of the rest, a full eight-tenths up on Sainz. Ericsson and Leclerc made it a good session for the Saubers.

Third practice had it nice and tight at the top. Vettel was top, half a tenth ahead of his team mate, Raikkonen the same margin ahead of Hamilton. Bottas was well off the pace but probably wasn’t trying a qualifying simulation. Nevertheless, he was still half a second ahead of Verstappen and Ricciardo, with the same margin from the Aussie to Leclerc. Perez was a surprising three-tenths off the Monegasque, followed by Hulkenberg and Ocon.

With Bottas penalised already, it’s a three horse race for pole, almost certainly (the Finn will be set up for maximum overtaking opportunities). Raikkonen has a very strong record around this circuit. Predictions are complicated by both top teams having major engine upgrades and we don’t know who was sandbagging the most.

There’s also the potential for rain, but third practice was dry and it’s believed qualifying will be too.

Raikkonen is 5.5 for pole. Each way equates to a third the odds for top 2. Tricky, but I think that’s worth backing.

Morris Dancer