China: pre-race 2017
Well, after the doom of
yesterday, qualifying went perfectly well and the race seems set for
tomorrow (7am UK time), although there’s a 90% chance of rain.
In the first part of
qualifying a number of chaps dropped out who ought not due to a (second consecutive) last lap cock-up by Giovinazzi, this time losing
control on the final corner’s astroturf, ploughing his Sauber into
the barrier and forcing those behind (including Ocon, Palmer and
Grosjean) to abort their final laps. Vandoorne also failed to escape
(16th) and Verstappen qualified 19th, but that
was due to his engine software being disobedient. Giovinazzi,
ironically, qualified for Q2 but was unable to compete in it due to
his car not being MOT compliant.
Second qualifying ran a
bit more to form. Despite impressive driving, Alonso could only
manage 13th, with Magnussen just ahead and Sainz 11th.
Ericsson was 14th, just ahead of his team mate.
It was very tight
between the top four going into the last session, and so it proved.
Hamilton nabbed pole by two-tenths, ahead of Vettel who was just a
thousandth up on Bottas. Raikkonen, who had looked good in Q2, was a
couple of tenths further back (same two rows as Australia).
Ricciardo was 5th
but nearly a second off Ferrari. Worryingly for Red Bull, as well as
Verstappen’s car being naughty, Williams have been very close to
them. In the end, Massa was half a second down the road, but in the
race, especially with the super long straight, Red Bull may struggle
to hold onto 5th. Hulkenberg was a short way behind Massa,
and rather better than I thought Renault might do. Perez was a tenth
or so further back, Kvyat a hundredth off, and Stroll reached Q3 but
was half a second off the Russian and seven-tenths off his team mate.
However, the Canadian was ropey in Australian qualifying but raced
impressively until his car stopped working.
As mentioned above,
there is a high chance of rain. Ninety percent, and it could be all
race.
We also have a number
of drivers out of position. Verstappen’s the stand out fellow, but
there’s also Grosjean and Ocon.
Looking at that, some
bets that spring to mind are:
Verstappen, podium
Toro Rosso, double
points finish
Vettel, win
Ferrari, top score
Alonso, points
Verstappen is just 4.5
for a podium. Frankly, the 34 each way to win appeals more than that.
In mostly dry conditions, he’d be struggling to be top 6. There
needs to be a lot of rain and probably some luck too.
Toro Rosso, unlike many
other midfield teams this year, have a closely matched pair and a
pretty good car. I think they’re likelier than most to double
score. They’re 2.75 for a double points finish, which is somewhat
tempting.
Vettel is 2.5 for the
win. Hmm. I do think he has a great chance. The Ferrari appears
superior on race pace but the Prancing Horse had a slightly dodgy
start in Australia.
Ferrari are 2.37 to top
score. Given this likely requires a victory, and that Raikkonen seems
relatively unlikely to get it, this doesn’t appeal.
Alonso is 2.25 for
points. I think he has a credible chance but given (with limited
data) McLaren has a 50% DNF rate so far this year and wet conditions
are uncertain, it doesn’t appeal.
So, everything’s
pretty tight. Nothing leaps out (I expected others to have the same
thought as me on Verstappen, but 4.5 is too damned short). As is
traditional now, I decided to have an idle browse and see if anything
leapt out at me.
Verstappen, win each
way, 34
Hulkenberg, top 6, 3
Perez, top 6, 4.33
Grosjean, not to be
classified, 2.62
Hulkenberg, not to be
classified, 3.5
Massa, not to be
classified, 4.5
Ricciardo/Verstappen,
not to be classified, 4.5
Lap 1 leader, Bottas,
10
Williams, double points
finish, 3
Just in: Grosjean and
Palmer have 5 place grid penalties for speeding after Giovinazzi
crashed.
If Verstappen can rise
from 17th (promoted two places due to the aforementioned
penalties for Grosjean and Palmer) to 3rd, at 4.5, then to
be 2nd at 11 seems like relatively good value. The
question is whether he can. Worth remembering the conditions at
Interlagos where he drove faster than the rest by miles, was
incredibly wet (so much so the safety car kept coming out). A little
drizzle won’t do it. If it’s mostly dry, his car simply isn’t
fast enough. May be an element of getting a bit giddy about
Verstappen when it comes to the odds.
Red Bull seem to have
lost some pace compared to those snapping at their heels. I think, on
pace, they’re still ahead but more likely to get bottled up behind
others due to being faster in twisty bits than on the straight.
There’s also a reliability question mark (Ricciardo had woe in Oz,
in qualifying at China a similar problem has afflicted Verstappen).
So, 6th and perhaps 5th is up for grabs.
Massa’s odds are only 1.66, and given Stroll had a reliability
failure DNF last time, and I suspect the Williams (historically being
weak on downforce) will suffer more than most if it is wet.
Hulkenberg’s a skilful wet driver (though his car may also be
fragile) and next in line. Then there’s Perez, right behind his
former team mate. Hard to call, but I’d probably favour Hulkenberg.
Odds of 3 aren’t stonking, though.
There are a slew of not
to be classified bets up for consideration due to a combination of
rubbish reliability last time, and the potential for much rain. The
least reliable last time was Haas. Grosjean starts second to last, so
there’s scope for immediate woe off the start line. However, 2.62
is a bit tight. Hulkenberg is a good driver but has had some first
lap problems in the past (not horrendous, but enough to perhaps
shorten his odds). He’s good in the wet but his team mate’s car
failed last time. Massa may be the most tempting. Not only did his
team mate’s car fail in Australia, but I suspect the Williams will
be weaker in the rain than others, and that also increases the chance
of sliding around and into a wall. Of course, this sort of bet is
largely down to luck, although contributing factors can be considered
(it also overlaps quite a bit, in the reverse sense, of the top 6 bet
I was looking at).
Ricciardo and
Verstappen at 4.5 each not to be classified are quite similar to the
Massa bet.
I’m a little bit
tempted to just slice one stake into little pieces and spread it
across the field. I’m undecided whether that would be indicative of
wisdom or immense cowardice.
Readers may recall I
noted a slight pattern at the start of the Australian Grand Prix,
with Ferrari a little sluggish, and Mercedes/Red Bull rather tastier
(also, Stroll making up ground and Grosjean going backwards). If they
general trend is repeated here, then the start, and the first few
corners in China have plenty of scope for crashing and embuggerance,
could be good for Bottas. Hamilton is also likely to be strongly
focused on Vettel. Odds of 10 are fairly long. However, if it’s a
wet start, they’ll trundle round after the safety car and Hamilton
will only lose the lead if he manages to slide off the track.
Williams for a double
points finish at 3 looks good, if the race is mostly dry. If it’s
wetter, I think the Toro Rosso bet at 2.75 looks better.
Anyway, the uncertainty
means that bets that could come off in either the wet or the dry are
the ones to go for, otherwise weather could easily turn them red.
Current forecast is for heavy rain around the start of the race.
So, two tips, both
Ladbrokes:
Hulkenberg, top 6, 3
One stake split equally
between Grosjean, Ricciard, Massa and Verstappen (2.62, and 4.5 for
the latter three) not to be classified
Between the rain and
reliability, I’d be quite surprised if they all finished. I was
quite tempted by Verstappen each way for the win at 34 (that seems
out of kilter with the 4.5 for a podium).
Anyway, the race is
intriguingly poised. It starts at 7am UK time, so hopefully I’ll
remember to wake up in time.
Morris Dancer
Hamilton for the win, Bottas for the podium.
ReplyDeleteLance Stroll for points. This track should suit his aggression.
I'm taking both Renaults to score. Palmer's penalty makes it a juicy 8/1 for a packed and unpredictable midfield.
Not sure I agree on Hamilton. Perfectly plausible but the odds don't appeal. Likewise Bottas for a podium.
DeleteStroll for points could work. I think a lot depends on the conditions, which always makes predictions hard.
Palmer starts dead last, but if it's wet and he can keep the car on the road, attrition will help him a lot. Could make a similar argument for Haas, though.
Morris - I couldn't come up with any inspiring bets of my own, so on this occasion I've followed you in by backing Hulkenberg to finish Top 6, except that I've placed this bet with Betfair Sportsbook at decimal odds of 3.5, i.e. offering a 25% better return than Ladbrokes. The same odds are also available from PP, Betfair's stable mate.
ReplyDeleteFingers crossed!