Bahrain: pre-race 2017

Well, I didn’t do that very well, did I? Bottas got his first ever pole, and Hamilton’s run of pole positions came to an end. However, the grid is rather tasty.

The first session of qualifying saw the surprising departure of Perez, who qualified only 18^th (imagine he must have had some sort of technical woe). This definitely afflicted Sainz, who posted the fastest first sector time before his car failed him (worth recalling he also had engine woe in practice). Also out were Vandoorne, Ericsson and Magnussen.

Alonso reached Q2 but didn’t run in it. Ahead of him Kvyat was the fastest of those eliminated, followed by Stroll, Wehrlein (who drove well on his return), and Ocon. So, a pretty rubbish qualifying for Force India.

The final session saw Hamilton half a tenth ahead of Bottas after the first run, with the Ferraris a large margin behind, followed by the Red Bulls. On the second run, Bottas improved to go fastest, but Hamilton buggered up his middle sector and ended up a few hundredths behind.

Vettel retained 3^rd on the grid, albeit half a second off the Mercedes, but Ricciardo managed to squeeze ahead of Raikkonen.

The Ferrari Finn is 5^th, ahead of Verstappen, but Raikkonen and the Red Bulls are covered by one and a half tenths.

Behind them, Hulkenberg did very well to get within two-tenths of Verstappen, a similar margin ahead of Massa.

Grosjean is a whopping seven-tenths down the road, starting alongside Palmer, who qualifies in a career best 10^th, but over a second behind his team mate. Very good qualifying for Renault, but one suspects they may be looking for a new driver for next season.

With Mercedes doing better in qualifying due to better engine modes, the race pace itself should be tighter. That being so, this is quite intriguingly poised (Channel 4’s pundits reckoned the Mercedes qualifying mode may be worth half a second. That would put Vettel and the Silver Arrows level, with the Red Bulls and Raikkonen not far off either).

Added to that, we have Force Indias weirdly off the pace, Williams perhaps going backwards, dubious reliability for Haas, Toro Rosso and Ferrari. It’s all set up very nicely.

Ferrari also tend to be kind to their tyres, and a two or one stop strategy is viable. Passing is possible but tricky.

Bets that came to mind were:

Hulkenberg, top 6

Lay Massa, points

Wehrlein, points

Ricciardo, podium

Verstappen, podium

Raikkonen, not to be classified

Hulkenberg is 1.9 for a top 6 finish. Given this appears to require someone ahead of him to break down, it doesn’t tempt me.

Couldn’t get odds to lay Massa (was a bit of a long shot).

Wehrlein is 11 for points. This requires, essentially, he stays on the circuit, doesn’t suffer technical woe and those ahead of him do. It’s possible, especially given technical woe that has affected several teams, but is contingent on luck.

Ricciardo is 3.25 for a podium. That’s quite intriguing. He starts 4^th, and in the first few races the Red Bulls have started nicely and the Ferraris have been a bit dodgy (we’ll see tomorrow whether this is an odds and evens sides of the track factor).

Verstappen is 4.5, the same odds as he was when he started 17^th in China, which may reflect the difficulty of overtaking in Bahrain. I’d probably prefer Ricciardo in the circumstances.

Raikkonen is 5.5 not to be classified. He’s suffered an engine problem in practice and Vettel also had some problems. However, there’s mostly good run off so a small off-track excursion probably wouldn’t do it.

Of those, the Ricciardo bet looks most interesting to me.

A perusal of the markets threw up the following:

Bottas, win, 3.5

Vettel, win, 3.75 (4.9 Betfair)

Red Bull, top scoring team, 15

Bottas starts on pole and has started races well. He was very close to Hamilton throughout qualifying, and will get first call on the strategy. But can he beat Hamilton? 3.5 is quite long for a pole-sitter in what is probably the fastest car (although that is open to question).

Vettel’s Ferrari should be more or less on pace with Mercedes and kinder to its tyres in the race, although he has started a bit tardily of late. This could lead to a separate strategy (perhaps two stop for Silver Arrows, one for the Prancing Horse). Backing at 4.9 and hedging at evens may be worth considering.

Ferrari have had engine woe. If that happens again they are almost certain to be outscored by Red Bull. Probably too much of a long shot to back Red Bull to top score, though.

Although the grid’s intriguingly set up for the race, I’m not sure what will happen. It’s hard to tell which of the three teams will be fastest, and there’s likely to be some varying strategies too.

I backed Vettel at 5 with Betfair to win, with a hedge set up at evens (in case the odds decline due to strategical shenanigans and/or the Ferrari decides to expire after he gets in a good position).

The Ferrari’s fast, he’s driving very well, his team mate is unlikely to bother him, and I’m slightly surprised his odds are longer than both the drivers ahead of him.

Next morning I waited impatiently for the markets to be added (surprised they weren’t already all up). Only two new bets looked of interest, the first of which was Hamilton to lead lap 1 at 3.6 (on Betfair). So far, the Mercedes has started better than the Ferrari, and Bottas may be nervous. Hamilton will absolutely be gunning for him into the first corner and he knows how important it is to get past early. On the other hand, Bottas has identical machinery and has also had good starts.

The other is Sainz not to be classified at 4.5. I rate Sainz as a driver, and think he might be the most overlooked chap in F1, but his car has broken down twice already. Bahrain doesn’t have many close barriers so a DNF largely depends on reliability failure, collision or pit stop tomfoolery. Tempting but decided against it.

So, after all that waiting, still just the one tip:

Vettel, win (Betfair), 5, hedged at evens.

The race starts at 4pm UK time. I’ll get the post-race analysis up this evening.

Morris Dancer