Bahrain: pre-qualifying 2017
Before we get to
practice, Alonso has announced he’ll be racing in the Indy 500.
He’ll be replaced for Monaco, with which the aforementioned race
clashes, by Jenson Button. There’s a special on Ladbrokes for
Button to be top 10 there at 4. Possible, but the car is unreliable,
though I thought it worth mentioning in case anyone disagreed.
Also, this marks the
first full race weekend for Pascal Wehrlein, who resumes his place (that had been occupied temporarily by Antonio Giovinazzi).
I put a small sum on
Red Bull for the Constructors’ at 46 about a week ago. My reasoning
was that they’ve got two very good drivers, whereas the teams ahead
of them have one number one driver and one chap slightly off the
boil. With new regulations there’s lots of room for development
which has historically been a Red Bull strength. It’s still odds
against, of course, I just think 46 is far too long.
In first practice
Vettel was fastest, four-tenths ahead of Ricciardo. Verstappen was
half a second down the road, followed by Perez, Massa and Stroll.
Ocon, Alonso, Grosjean and Hamilton rounded out the top 10.
Mercedes didn’t have
any problems, they just weren’t going for fast times, probably
because the daytime first and third practice sessions aren’t that
much use when qualifying and the race are twilight/nocturnal affairs.
Raikkonen’s engine
went kaput in this session.
In second practice,
things were quite tight. Vettel was fastest again, less than half a
tenth ahead of Bottas, with Ricciardo two-hundredths off the Finn and
Hamilton a tenth off the Aussie. Hulkenberg was next, with Massa,
Verstappen, Grosjean and Kvyat following.
Sainz’s engine
(Renault, I think) also broke in a puff of blue smoke. Seems
overheating is a problem for more than one team. Vettel had a
reliability problem on track and his car seemed stricken, but he
managed to get out later in the session.
There’s a suggestion
Red Bull may have brought some upgrades (and I think Ferrari has a
new front wing). With new regulations, there will be an almighty
development war over the course of the season.
At this stage, it’s
looking very tight at the top, with Red Bull seemingly having narrowed the gap. Ricciardo was half and almost one second faster than
Verstappen. If there’s only one set of new parts, that could
explain the difference (or it could just be the usual practice
nonsense).
Reliability may be
weaker than usual due to overheating, as well as the new regulations
bedding in.
Raikkonen took on a new
engine, although Ferrari are hoping they’ll be able to mend the
wonky one and get it working later in the season. If things stay very
tight between the top two teams this year, reliability could be the
deciding factor. In that area, Mercedes seems to have a slight edge.
In the latter half of
third practice, Grosjean crashed into the barriers. The Frenchman
sounds to have been grumpy about his car before this as well.
Rather unexpectedly,
Verstappen was fastest in third practice, a tenth ahead of Hamilton
(who reportedly had a pretty scruffy lap). Vettel was almost half a
second back, but just four-thousandths up on Bottas, who was
three-hundredths ahead of Raikkonen. Massa was two-hundredths off the
slower Finn. Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Sainz and Kvyat round out the top
10.
After the good Red Bull
pace in second practice I did contemplate backing them for this and
that (both drivers were 29 to lead lap 1 and 34 to win, but only 3.5
for the podium) but decided against it. They were a long way back in
the first two races. If they actually have closed the gap that would
be an astonishing rate of progress, and I’ll believe it when I see
it.
So, bets that sprang to
mind:
Hamilton, pole
Massa, Q3
Kvyat, Q3
Hamilton was 1.72 for
pole. I think he should be more like 1.4, so I’ve backed this. The
third practice lap was poor but he had the pace in the car to top the
timesheets and he’s both an excellent qualifier and has a car that
seems to give just a little bit more than others in single lap pace.
Might end up looking silly, but the odds were significantly longer
than I expected.
The other two potential
bets had no odds of which to speak.
So, one tip:
Hamilton, pole
(Betfair), 1.72
Qualifying is at 4pm UK
time. I’ll perhaps have the pre-race article done this evening, or
perhaps tomorrow morning. The race is at 4pm tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
I'm going for Vettel for the win. Twice a winner here, once engine failure before the race and once a bad pitstop ... so this is a great track for him
ReplyDeleteOcon for points based on the price, and Bottas for fastest lap.
Once again, I'm struggling to find any sort of value for this GP.
ReplyDeleteMore out of frustration than anything else, I've opted for the Hulk to finish in the top six at odds of 2.1, thereby requiring him to improve by just one place on his grid position ... not too much to ask surely?
Hey, chaps.
ReplyDeleteI had hoped to get the pre-race article done yesterday morning, but not all the markets were up.
I've also backed Vettel to win at 5, hedged at evens.
Ocon for points is something I looked at but the dreadful Force India qualifying has put me off.
I did look at Hulkenberg to be top 6 but the Renault's been a little limp. Very good qualifying, though. Hmm.
Anyway, once I am infused with caffeine and have checked the markets I'll see about getting the pre-race article up this morning.