Austria: post-race analysis 2016
The
race was thrilling for the eyes and frustrating for the wallet. Of
three tips offered this weekend, not one came off. One was definitely
ill-judgement (Hamilton started well), one was possible but for
misfortune (Vettel to get fastest qualifying time each way) and one
really should’ve come off but every little thing seemed against it
(Raikkonen each way for the win).
Off
the line, Hamilton actually started well. So did Button. Raikkonen
passed Hulkenberg, who slid down the order (through the race), but
the Finn was unable to get closer because Button was, quite
selfishly, in the way. [There was a blank space on the grid ahead of
Wehrlein due to Massa starting, with Kvyat, in the pit lane. The
German forgot about this, went one place too far on the grid and
reversed into position but, oddly, there's no rule against reversing on the grid and he didn’t get a penalty for that].
Ricciardo
had a poor start and Verstappen a flyer, so much so the Red Bulls
ended up swapping places.
Rosberg
was slicing through the field like Zorro through a cavalcade of
corrupt noblemen, with Vettel doing a similar job right behind him.
Pit
stops came earlier than expected, with Rosberg one of the leading
cars to switch from ultrasoft to soft. The Ferraris and Hamilton
(still leading, ahead of Raikkonen) stayed out longer.
Hamilton
pitted perhaps a dozen laps after Rosberg, also to soft tyres, and
Raikkonen came in a lap after. However, the Finn ended up behind both
Red Bulls, way back in 6th. Dire strategic error from
Ferrari, who appeared to forget that there were more than two teams
in the race. The Prancing Horse needs to sort the strategy out,
because they should’ve been competing for the win today.
Vettel
stayed out longer on the supersoft tyre. Until around lap 26 or so,
when his right rear tyre exploded on the start/finish straight. He,
unsurprisingly, crashed and was out of the race. A safety car emerged
for maybe half a dozen laps. Given it wasn’t the softest tyre
compound available, an explosion after just 26 laps (of a 71 lap
race) is a bit concerning, and it’s fortunate there wasn’t anyone
right behind him [Rosberg was a little way back] or they could’ve
been struck with a load of rubber flying at hundreds of miles per
hour.
This
closed the field up. Rosberg led, having undercut Hamilton in the pit
stops, with Verstappen, Ricciardo and Raikkonen next. Bizarrely, Nasr
(who had yet to stop) was 6th at this stage.
When
the safety car trundled in, the top five started to spread out rather
boringly, although further down the field the likes of Perez and
Massa were cutting through the field with aplomb.
However,
moves were afoot. Ricciardo was pitted, and Raikkonen started closing
the gap on Verstappen. Both Mercedes pitted (Rosberg to supersoft,
Hamilton to soft, which irked the Briton when he learnt his team mate
had a softer compound).
Rosberg
had a 2s gap he was managing nicely until he took a scenic approach
to cornering and lost a second. Raikkonen was getting into DRS range
of Verstappen.
Hamilton
kept on getting closer as Rosberg’s tyres frayed (post-race, it was
said by the team Rosberg had a brake issue). On the final lap,
Hamilton moved to pass Rosberg, who didn’t turn into the corner and
ran the Briton wide. They collided again when Hamilton returned to
the circuit, and Rosberg’s damage (perhaps from the first contact)
cost him significant time. Hamilton went on to win and Rosberg was
passed by both Verstappen and Raikkonen.
In
the end Raikkonen was 3rd, just a few tenths off of
Verstappen. But for dire strategy he could’ve competed for victory.
Bit galling, given my bet, but things turn out that way sometimes
(and sometimes you fluke a long odds winner). Rosberg claimed 4th.
Ricciardo
was 5th and Button got a fantastic 6th for
McLaren. I did not see that coming, and it may indicate the Honda
isn’t as appalling as I thought it was. Grosjean got 7th,
benefiting from a free pit stop due to the safety car, and getting
much needed points for Haas, who started the season very well but
have been a bit lacklustre of late.
Sainz
was 8th, which is pretty good for a chap whose engine
exploded in qualifying. Bottas got 9th and kudos to
Wehrlein for getting his first ever F1 point with 10th.
That is, however, bad news for Sauber, who have 0 points still.
Perez
crashed late on due to a car failure, and Hulkenberg was retired due
to a substantial vibration (may sound like a rubbish excuse but
that’s what caused suspension failures and could indicate
significant problems). This was a race Force India must have hoped
for a double points finish, so getting zero is pretty disappointing
for them.
Massa
was also on for points, but had to retire (Kvyat retired on the
second lap).
Drivers’
standings:
Rosberg
153
Hamilton
142
Vettel
96
Raikkonen
96
Ricciardo
88
Verstappen
72
Rosberg’s
daftness cost him 6 points (difference between 2nd and
4th) which may yet prove decisive at the season’s end.
Are Ferrari out of this? So far, reliability is costing them more
than anything else. Vettel has had about three DNFs. He’d be
within a race victory or so of the lead but for that [NB another
rare race when I don’t make the Ferrari not classified bet
coincides with a Ferrari not being classified...]. The season’s
halfway done. It is possible Vettel could yet win, though I think it
unlikely.
Constructors’
standings:
Mercedes
295
Ferrari
192
Red
Bull 168
Williams
92
Force
India 59
Toro
Rosso 36
McLaren
32
Haas
28
Renault
6
Manor
1
Sauber
0
With
the result for Button and Grosjean, the battle for 6th
between Toro Rosso, McLaren and Haas is suddenly looking very close.
Manor nabbing a point means they’ll get several million next year
in prize money. Sauber rooted to the foot of the table isn’t good
news but apparently they do have a new sponsor lined up to inject
much needed cash.
Whilst
Red Bull have closed the gap a bit on Ferrari that’s due more to
reliability failures than pace (Raikkonen should’ve finished ahead
of Verstappen, and probably Hamilton too). In Constructor terms, the
Red Bull may yet leapfrog the Prancing Horse, but the Ferrari is the
faster car.
So,
a very exciting race, and a really bad weekend for betting. Hopefully
Silverstone, in just a week’s time, will be as exciting, and a good
deal more profitable.
Morris
Dancer
Your assumption that Hamilton would started poorly is utterly reasonable given the previous races this season - in the end you were unlucky.
ReplyDeleteAnd well done to Manor with their point. Though as someone who is somewhat steeped in the history of the sport, it's sad to see Sauber at Null Point.
It is. I hope Sauber can keep going.
ReplyDeleteIt was a fair assumption, but just not my weekend. Rosberg is definitely under investigation and Hamilton may be (seems to be some confusion over that) so it's possible the Raikkonen bet will yet prove a winner, though I suspect not.