Germany: post-race analysis 2016
Fair to say a tip that
was plain wrong (whilst Hulkenberg did receive a minor grid penalty
after I bet, this did not affect things substantially) and a race
that had some interesting moments but was not a classic.
The first lap was
frantic and exciting. Rosberg had an atrocious start, slipping to
4th, and Verstappen had a tasty getaway, rising to 2nd
behind Hamilton.
Hamilton spent the rest
of the race cruising to victory and contemplating what to do on his
summer holiday.
Gutierrez started 11th
and was the only man on the soft (all others on supersoft). The
potential strategic advantage was lost somewhat when he left the
handbrake on at the start and fell down to around 16th.
As Rosberg fought back
he passed Verstappen after a round of pit stops with an aggressive
overtake, very late braking into the hairpin. This level of
excitement was clearly contrary to the principles of modern F1 and
the German was duly penalised with a 5s penalty [which he took at his
next pit stop]. That’ll teach him to be interesting. (Also worth
noting Verstappen’s late move in Hungary got no penalty).
Hamilton got the
victory. Ricciardo appeared to find the tyres easier to handle than
his team mate, and ended up 2nd with Verstappen having to
settle for 3rd. In the final stint, Rosberg made up no
time whatsoever on the Red Bulls. Not sure why, but it meant he
finished a dreary 4th.
The Ferraris trundled
about in a race of their own. Vettel was called into the pits and
declined. The team radioed again saying they’d try an undercut and
he, quite reasonably, pointed out the next car was miles ahead.
Vettel was 5th, Raikkonen 6th.
It had been assumed
everyone would try two stopping but three seemed to be the way to go.
Bottas attempted a two stop but his tyres fell off the cliff. He was
gobbled up by Hulkenberg and Button. Button and Alonso both appeared
to have fuel-saving issues (the Honda is a thirsty beast) but it was
worse for the Spaniard who slipped out of the points altogether (to
the benefit of Perez).
Massa had to retire
after an early contact with Palmer appeared to damage his car (pace
was dire and he got passed left, right and centre).
A dreadful result for
Rosberg. He’s had two poles in the last two races, and started
abysmally. The mid-season break is an opportunity for him to pull
himself together (and perhaps enjoy watching the Olympics). Hamilton
must feel great, but if his reliability starts failing his lead could
vanish overnight. That said, Hamilton is psychologically stronger
than Rosberg. The Briton is in with a great chance of a third
consecutive title.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 217
Rosberg 198
Ricciardo 133
Raikkonen 122
Vettel 120
Verstappen 115
**
Bottas 58
Alonso 24
Magnussen 6
The title is, of
course, a two horse race. Hamilton is favourite, and rightly so. He
has the pace, track record (as it were) and mental strength. On
Rosberg’s side is a summer break to pick himself up, historically
performing well in the latter half of the season (particularly last
year) and Hamilton’s impending penalties. If you believe Rosberg
can do it, or get close, now is likely the optimum time to back him.
Also worth noting I
mentioned in the mid-season review some thoughts on how I might
spread-bet, hence the inclusion of the latter three drivers’
points. Buying Bottas at 93 and Verstappen at 206 are looking so-so
and pretty good respectively, I think. Selling Magnussen at 11 and
Alonso at 53 is looking promising.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 415
Red Bull 256
Ferrari 242
Williams 96
Force India 81
Toro Rosso 45
McLaren 42
Haas 28
Renault 6
Manor 1
Sauber 0
Red Bull and Ferrari
should have a good fight for 2nd, although the title is
sewn up. Behind them, I think Force India may overtake Williams
(it’ll be close). I think McLaren will pass Toro Rosso. Not only
does the McLaren have a nice chassis, Kvyat seems mentally destroyed
right now. The lower four will, I think, finish in their current
order.
So, the bet didn’t
come off. Not delighted, but it was one of those weekends when I
didn’t have a clue what would happen. Kudos to Mr. Putney, who got
his Hamilton-win bet right and was a shade unfortunate the time
margin wasn’t a little larger.
As I said, there’s a
four week break until Spa. Hamilton, I understand, will have a new
engine for that so Rosberg should (indeed, must) claw back some
relative points. A mere week after that is Monza (for the final
time?). Ferrari must beat Red Bull at those types of circuits,
especially Monza, if they want to finish 2nd.
Morris Dancer
Why have F1 crowds recently taken to booing Hamilton after he'd won, this was especially noticeable last week and again today, when he was in a German car, well notionally anyway?
ReplyDeleteHey, Mr. Putney.
DeleteI didn't see that (I stop paying attention after the race ends). I think it's just bad manners, frankly. Especially odd after a race in which Hamilton did nothing wrong, or even controversial.