Austria: post-race analysis 2016

The race was thrilling for the eyes and frustrating for the wallet. Of three tips offered this weekend, not one came off. One was definitely ill-judgement (Hamilton started well), one was possible but for misfortune (Vettel to get fastest qualifying time each way) and one really should’ve come off but every little thing seemed against it (Raikkonen each way for the win).

Off the line, Hamilton actually started well. So did Button. Raikkonen passed Hulkenberg, who slid down the order (through the race), but the Finn was unable to get closer because Button was, quite selfishly, in the way. [There was a blank space on the grid ahead of Wehrlein due to Massa starting, with Kvyat, in the pit lane. The German forgot about this, went one place too far on the grid and reversed into position but, oddly, there's no rule against reversing on the grid and he didn’t get a penalty for that].

Ricciardo had a poor start and Verstappen a flyer, so much so the Red Bulls ended up swapping places.

Rosberg was slicing through the field like Zorro through a cavalcade of corrupt noblemen, with Vettel doing a similar job right behind him.

Pit stops came earlier than expected, with Rosberg one of the leading cars to switch from ultrasoft to soft. The Ferraris and Hamilton (still leading, ahead of Raikkonen) stayed out longer.

Hamilton pitted perhaps a dozen laps after Rosberg, also to soft tyres, and Raikkonen came in a lap after. However, the Finn ended up behind both Red Bulls, way back in 6^th. Dire strategic error from Ferrari, who appeared to forget that there were more than two teams in the race. The Prancing Horse needs to sort the strategy out, because they should’ve been competing for the win today.

Vettel stayed out longer on the supersoft tyre. Until around lap 26 or so, when his right rear tyre exploded on the start/finish straight. He, unsurprisingly, crashed and was out of the race. A safety car emerged for maybe half a dozen laps. Given it wasn’t the softest tyre compound available, an explosion after just 26 laps (of a 71 lap race) is a bit concerning, and it’s fortunate there wasn’t anyone right behind him [Rosberg was a little way back] or they could’ve been struck with a load of rubber flying at hundreds of miles per hour.

This closed the field up. Rosberg led, having undercut Hamilton in the pit stops, with Verstappen, Ricciardo and Raikkonen next. Bizarrely, Nasr (who had yet to stop) was 6^th at this stage.

When the safety car trundled in, the top five started to spread out rather boringly, although further down the field the likes of Perez and Massa were cutting through the field with aplomb.

However, moves were afoot. Ricciardo was pitted, and Raikkonen started closing the gap on Verstappen. Both Mercedes pitted (Rosberg to supersoft, Hamilton to soft, which irked the Briton when he learnt his team mate had a softer compound).

Rosberg had a 2s gap he was managing nicely until he took a scenic approach to cornering and lost a second. Raikkonen was getting into DRS range of Verstappen.

Hamilton kept on getting closer as Rosberg’s tyres frayed (post-race, it was said by the team Rosberg had a brake issue). On the final lap, Hamilton moved to pass Rosberg, who didn’t turn into the corner and ran the Briton wide. They collided again when Hamilton returned to the circuit, and Rosberg’s damage (perhaps from the first contact) cost him significant time. Hamilton went on to win and Rosberg was passed by both Verstappen and Raikkonen.

In the end Raikkonen was 3^rd, just a few tenths off of Verstappen. But for dire strategy he could’ve competed for victory. Bit galling, given my bet, but things turn out that way sometimes (and sometimes you fluke a long odds winner). Rosberg claimed 4^th.

Ricciardo was 5^th and Button got a fantastic 6^th for McLaren. I did not see that coming, and it may indicate the Honda isn’t as appalling as I thought it was. Grosjean got 7^th, benefiting from a free pit stop due to the safety car, and getting much needed points for Haas, who started the season very well but have been a bit lacklustre of late.

Sainz was 8^th, which is pretty good for a chap whose engine exploded in qualifying. Bottas got 9^th and kudos to Wehrlein for getting his first ever F1 point with 10^th. That is, however, bad news for Sauber, who have 0 points still.

Perez crashed late on due to a car failure, and Hulkenberg was retired due to a substantial vibration (may sound like a rubbish excuse but that’s what caused suspension failures and could indicate significant problems). This was a race Force India must have hoped for a double points finish, so getting zero is pretty disappointing for them.

Massa was also on for points, but had to retire (Kvyat retired on the second lap).

Drivers’ standings:

Rosberg 153

Hamilton 142

Vettel 96

Raikkonen 96

Ricciardo 88

Verstappen 72

Rosberg’s daftness cost him 6 points (difference between 2^nd and 4^th) which may yet prove decisive at the season’s end. Are Ferrari out of this? So far, reliability is costing them more than anything else. Vettel has had about three DNFs. He’d be within a race victory or so of the lead but for that [NB another rare race when I don’t make the Ferrari not classified bet coincides with a Ferrari not being classified...]. The season’s halfway done. It is possible Vettel could yet win, though I think it unlikely.

Constructors’ standings:

Mercedes 295

Ferrari 192

Red Bull 168

Williams 92

Force India 59

Toro Rosso 36

McLaren 32

Haas 28

Renault 6

Manor 1

Sauber 0

With the result for Button and Grosjean, the battle for 6^th between Toro Rosso, McLaren and Haas is suddenly looking very close. Manor nabbing a point means they’ll get several million next year in prize money. Sauber rooted to the foot of the table isn’t good news but apparently they do have a new sponsor lined up to inject much needed cash.

Whilst Red Bull have closed the gap a bit on Ferrari that’s due more to reliability failures than pace (Raikkonen should’ve finished ahead of Verstappen, and probably Hamilton too). In Constructor terms, the Red Bull may yet leapfrog the Prancing Horse, but the Ferrari is the faster car.

So, a very exciting race, and a really bad weekend for betting. Hopefully Silverstone, in just a week’s time, will be as exciting, and a good deal more profitable.

Morris Dancer