Canada: pre-qualifying
The tyres for this
weekend are soft and supersoft. It’s possible rain will affect
things, although right now a dry qualifying/race appears more
probable.
The circuit is mostly
straights and slow corners, so aerodynamics matter less and straight
line speed is handy. Honda and Ferrari have both used some engine
tokens to improve their power, though it remains it be seen just what
impact the improvements will have made to performance.
In P1 Hamilton was
four-tenths up on Rosberg, who was over a second ahead of Grosjean.
Hulkenberg and Vettel were next, followed by Massa, Kvyat, Maldonado,
Alonso and Verstappen.
The second practice
session had Hamilton up on Vettel by four-tenths, with Raikkonen and
Rosberg next. Maldonado, Bottas, Grosjean, Massa, Kvyat and Ricciardo
round out the top 10.
P2 was disrupted by
rain, which saw Hamilton introduce his front wing to the barriers in
a relatively low speed crash (no damage beyond the front wing).
It was remarked in P2
that the Ferrari’s long runs were faster than the Mercedes,
although McNish wisely reminded us that we don’t know what fuel
loads were being run. It certainly appears that the prancing horse is
in the running, on pace, for a race win, although I’d still expect
them to be behind when it comes to qualifying.
At this stage, things
look quite good for Lotus, who may be best of the rest after the
Mercedes-Ferrari tussle for dominance. Whilst the Lotus looks fast,
McNish reckoned they were a bit of a handful, which might see them
qualify well but struggle a little over a race distance. During P3
Vettel lost some electrical energy (kinetic). If that happens in the
race/qualifying he’ll struggle to make the top 10.
Verstappen has a 15
place grid penalty (5 for the Monaco incident and 10 for changing to
engine number five).
P3 was notable for Nasr
weaving to warm his tyres, losing control and hitting the barriers
[bit of a schoolboy error], which brought out a red flag. A second
red flag emerged when Button’s McLaren broke down late on.
Because of this, the
session was about as representative of true pace as Sepp Blatter is
of the average football fan. Nevertheless, Rosberg was fastest ahead
of Raikkonen and Grosjean. Bottas, Perez and Kvyat were next,
followed by Massa, Vettel, Sainz and Maldonado.
Bets:
Lotus drivers Q3
Force India drivers Q3
The Mercedes engine
appears a tasty advantage, with only the Ferrari team itself seeming
able to challenge the Mercedes dominance.
The Lotus drivers were
both under 1.5. The Force India drivers, by contrast, were both 2.75,
so I’ve backed both Hulkenberg and Perez at 2.75 to make Q3 [that’s
with Ladbrokes].
The circuit isn’t big
on aerodynamics, which is the Force India’s key weakness. Both
drivers are good, and the Mercedes engine is the one to have. It’s
not a certainty, but I think they both have a decent shot of making
it and would be surprised if neither achieved a top 10 place.
That said, my results
this year have been incredibly red, so do at your own risk.
The pre-race piece will
probably be up tomorrow rather than this evening.
Morris Dancer
It's hard to see past Haliton winning. The Mercedes should outpace all rivals on the more open track but their team strategy has been a mess so far - so I would have looked at Vettel for podium pre-qualifying but not now.
ReplyDeleteI think Maldonado is value for both top 6 and first retirement. The Lotus engine is right for this track. Doom or Glory for Maldonado here and his previous performace gives nice odds for the Glory version.
Danill Kyvat is fourth fastest after Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams. If he plays it safe on this circuit there are points to be had. Plus he bollocking from Helmut Marko will be ringing in his ears.
McLaren for Both Cars Finish. even with Button's engine problem - it's not been typical. If both finish then they should also both be in the points. My usual bookies Hills aren't offering that so I'm going to look elsewhere to place that bet.
Must disagree strongly on McLaren getting double points. McLaren are behind Ferrari, Mercedes, Lotus, Williams, Force India, Red Bull and Toro Rosso and have rubbish reliability as well.
ReplyDeleteKvyat for points might be worth a look. With Vettel's penalty (he starts either 18th or 19th, there seems to be some confusion) the German may be value for top 6, depending on the odds.
I'll give it a proper look in the morning.