Canada: post-race analysis
Well, the race didn’t
go to plan, but it was plain misjudgement on my part. The Force India
was fast enough to keep the Lotus behind it but a strategic cock-up
allowed Maldonado to pass. I also over-estimated the chances of
technical woe at the sharper end (nothing really happened there). It
would’ve been interesting to know how I might’ve bet on double
score for a team (again, would’ve likely looked at Force
India/Lotus, the former losing, the latter winning) but I’m not
unhappy with the first green weekend of the year [the hedge was
unmatched, incidentally].
Off the line it was
more or less formation flying. Over the course of the first lap
Hulkenberg managed to pass Maldonado and Sainz slid down a few
places, but otherwise it was largely as you were.
Within the first two
laps Hamilton had broken DRS range, and retained that gap or more
throughout the whole race, so, at the sharp end, it was not a
thriller.
The top four were all
spread, especially the two Finns, and Raikkonen seemed destined for
the final podium place. However, during his second stint an
unexpected lump of Kinetic power kicked him into a spin at the
hairpin. This allowed Bottas to pass and appears to have damaged
Raikkonen’s tyres, as he was one of the relatively few cars to have
another stop. Congratulations to Mr. Sandpit for his 5 bet on Bottas
to get on the podium (I considered this but then thought it’d never
happen. Ahem).
Hulkenberg was not fast
enough to pull away from Maldonado but he was swift enough to keep
the Venezuelan behind. However, Lotus performed the undercut well and
Force India ran maybe 10 laps deeper (which seems very odd, though
perhaps they believed Maldonado would need a second stop).
Vettel and Massa were
cutting their way through the field, and Grosjean was doing nicely
when he passed Will Stevens’ Manor Marussia then cut across him,
wrecking the Briton’s front wing and giving himself a puncture.
Both men had to pit, and this shoved Grosjean further down the order
(it would’ve been interesting to see whether the Frenchman could’ve
kept 5th or 6th from Vettel/Massa had he not
made the extra stop).
When passing
Hulkenberg, Vettel and he collided in the final chicane. Hulkenberg
was spun and had to (briefly) go against the direction of traffic
[albeit on an empty track] to rejoin. No action was taken and
Hulkenberg said ‘it was racing’. Whilst it allowed Massa to also
pass him easily, it didn’t really affect much in the end.
Hamilton got the win,
Rosberg 2nd and Bottas 3rd. Raikkonen will be
unhappy with 4th but there was little he could do about
it, and his team mate nabbed 5th. Massa got 6th,
more solid points for Williams (clearly the third best car on this
sort of circuit). Maldonado will be delighted with 7th,
which may be his first finish and is his first points of the year.
Then we have
Hulkenberg, Kvyat and Grosjean (who got a 5s time penalty for the
Stevens collision but he retains 10th).
Neither Toro Rosso ever
looked like scoring and Ricciardo likewise failed. The Saubers were
also lacklustre, and both McLarens were slow before retiring. Worth
noting ahead of circuits like Austria and Monza.
I do think that the
Lotus is slower than the Williams/Ferrari, but it remains to be seen
whether they could’ve kept the faster cars behind them (as
Hulkenberg managed with Maldonado on-track). Despite multiple
problems in qualifying, the Ferraris and Williams were fine in the
race, with only McLaren suffering technical woe (with a double
retirement).
The lack of rain,
crashing and safety car coupled with a very dominant win by Hamilton
meant the race was less exciting than might’ve been hoped for.
Still far better than Monaco, of course.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 158
Rosberg 134
Vettel 108
It’s not all over for
Vettel, but he needs to start winning regularly. Without that, he
doesn’t stand a chance. Rosberg could yet close the gap, but he
also needs to start winning again.
Constructors’ (from
4th down):
Red Bull 54
Lotus 23
Sauber/Force India 21
Toro Rosso 15
I think Red Bull’s
almost nailed on for 4th. The Lotus has been unreliable, but if they
sort their technical gremlins they could yet snatch 4th, though it'll be tricky. Sauber will fall behind Force India, I think (they’re tied, Sauber
technically ahead, but the Force India hasn’t been upgraded all
year).
Toro Rosso are
interesting. They could finish ahead of Sauber and maybe Force India.
In betting terms, I’m
delighted to finally get a green result. It was fortunate, frankly,
(Hulkenberg in qualifying was good judgement, Perez was fluky and I
was just plain wrong about the race) but I’ve also had bad luck
this year so it’s swings and roundabouts.
The next race is in
Austria, in a fortnight. Last year Williams arguably should’ve won.
They won’t this year, I think, but straight line speed will be
critical, so expect a comparable result to Canada. Also, after that
race Force India should get their B-spec car (and therefore start
getting upgrades).
Morris Dancer
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