Austria: pre-qualifying

Tyres for this weekend are supersoft and soft. Austria’s all about straight line speed, so I imagine it’ll be very similar to Canada. Lotus in particular may be a team to watch.

Alonso gets a 20 place grid penalty due to replacing so much of his engine, and Ricciardo gets a 10 place penalty.

Button has a 25 place grid penalty. The grid has 20 cars.

In first practice Rosberg was three-tenths ahead of Hamilton, followed by the Finns Raikkonen and Bottas. Nasr and Kvyat were next, with Ricciardo, Verstappen, Massa and Perez rounding out the top 10.

Second practice was led by Vettel, who was a hundredth ahead of Rosberg. Raikkonen was two-tenths down the road, with Maldonado just a tenth back. Hamilton was next, but didn’t get a clean lap (on pace he would’ve been a few tenths ahead of the field). Hulkenberg and Grosjean followed, with Verstappen, Nasr and Perez finishing off the top 10.

Ferrari are reportedly looking really rather racy. However, that’s been said before, only for Mercedes to be dominant in the race. I still expect the running order to be Mercedes-Ferrari-Williams. Lotus and Force India should punch above their weight, with Red Bull and Toro Rosso doing poorly, as per Canada.

Not representative of qualifying for reasons outlined below, but in P3 Vettel was fastest, two-hundredths up on Hamilton, who was a tenth ahead of Raikkonen. Perez was next (on supersoft, unlike most of those around him), then Rosberg, Massa and Bottas. Verstappen, Maldonado and Grosjean come next.

Third practice was disrupted by a red flag 30 minutes in, when Alonso’s McLaren failed, again. Rain came at more or less the same time. Drivers tried to put in qualifying simulations after that, but the track was too wet. Most drivers did head out (mostly wet tyres, but Vettel opted for intermediates and was quick), though Hamilton stayed in the pits.

It’s possible that conditions will also be wet in qualifying. Could be good for Toro Rosso, who appeared quick in the wet at the end of P3. On the other hand, it makes trying to predict qualifying trickier than would otherwise be the case.

Potential bets:

Lay Ricciardo Q3

Maldonado Q3

Hulkenberg Q3

Lay Hamilton pole

Lay Massa/Bottas Q3 [if it looks like being wet]

Ricciardo’s got a lay value of 2.8, which is rubbish.

Maldonado was a tight 1.33 to reach Q3. Given potential rain/crashing/reliability, that did not tempt me at all.

Hulkenberg was 1.66. For similar reasons, that’s not long enough.

I was a bit surprised Hamilton was over evens for pole, I was expecting something more like 1.5 or less.

The potential laying of Williams’ drivers is solely due to the prospect of rain. The Williams suffers in the wet, and one or both could easily miss Q3 if it’s soggy. There was very little available for either (some for Bottas at 1.14, but it’s worth noting he’s been very good in the wet in the past, so Massa would be the better lay). Whilst I think there’s merit in laying them to reach Q3, the lack of money available means I can’t tip it [I did lay them both, but there was only a few pounds up].

So, no tip for qualifying.

Morris Dancer