Brazil: pre-race
Damned weather
forecast. Second race in a row I’ve had a qualifying bet in mind
and not backed it, although this time it was down to the forecast
being wrong. Oh well.
Grosjean, Vergne, Perez
and Maldonado went out in Q1. Due to penalties reshuffling the pack,
Vergne, Maldonado, Kvyat and Perez will be the last four on the grid.
In Q2 we lost Gutierrez
(surprisingly quick in eleventh), Hulkenberg, Sutil and Kvyat. The
penalties mean Grosjean will start alongside Sutil in the race.
Q3 was a bit tighter
than expected. Rosberg claimed pole (and the qualifying trophy, a new
prize this year) just 0.033s ahead of Hamilton. Massa might’ve
challenged for pole but made a mistake on his final run. Despite
that, he still claimed third ahead of Bottas. Either the Finn’s
just happened upon two tracks he isn’t quite right on or Massa’s
in the zone right now.
After a dodgy Friday,
McLaren recovered well and Button got a strong fifth (incidentally,
the rumour mill suggests an announcement of Alonso moving to McLaren,
replacing Button, will be made shortly before Abu Dhabi). Vettel was
sixth, followed by Magnussen and Alonso, with Ricciardo and Raikkonen
rounding out the top 10.
Didn’t expect the
McLaren to be so swift, the Williams to be so close to the Mercedes,
or the Red Bull to be so poor. If it does rain, the Red Bull’s
downforce should help it a lot. In the dry, the Williams is dominant
in the final sector (long ‘straight’) which will mean it’s both
hard to pass and has a good chance of overtaking other cars.
The forecast for the
race is that it will be dry, but thunderstorms remain possible. Given
the forecasters were wrong both the morning and afternoon on
Saturday, keep an open mind about the elements.
So, it’s useful to
consider what might happen if it’s wet, and what might happen if
it’s dry.
In the wet, I’d
expect Button and Hulkenberg to do relatively well, the Red Bulls
also, and perhaps Bottas too [he’s good in the wet but his car
lacks downforce]. Mercedes would retain dominance and might be even
further ahead because the Silver Arrows have strong downforce and
their nearest rivals here, Williams, do not. Hulkenberg points,
Button podium and Ricciardo top six would all be possibilities.
In the dry, it might
well be closer between Mercedes and Williams. Bottas has been
starting badly recently, but Massa was strong last week and has been
good again here. The gap from Williams to McLaren is over half a
second, so I’d expect the top four to drive off into the sunset,
but Button to stand a good chance of staying top six. I could see
Ricciardo drifting up the order, Alonso perhaps going backwards. Not
sure about Vettel and Magnussen. Suspect they may go backwards. I
think Raikkonen and Gutierrez will drift back and Hulkenberg forward.
Potential bets:
Williams top score
Massa podium
Ricciardo top 6
Button podium
Hulkenberg points
Williams to top score
is something I’m a little wary of. I’ve backed it twice, but the
team seems to lack a little bit of luck and some strategic sharpness
(Austria might’ve gone their way). So, long odds are necessary to
tempt me. The 5 available is not enough.
Massa in the dry or
Button in the wet have a decent crack at a podium. On Betfair,
Massa’s 2.7 and Button’s 9. The Brazilian’s odds are quite
tempting.
Ricciardo’s only 1.45
to be top 6. Doesn’t tempt me. The top four should be over the
hills and far away, and the Red Bull may struggle to overtake due to
being relatively slow on the long straight.
Hulkenberg (longer odds
at Ladbrokes) is 1.72 for points. Unsure about this. Force India are
the clear worst of the Mercedes-powered teams, he had a reliability
failure in Austin last week, and when I checked the speed trap for
Ricciardo (tenth, if you’re wondering) I noticed that Hulkenberg
was 5km/h slower (possibly an effect of ruining his tyres on his
fastest lap, but that’ll also harm him in the race).
Also worth recalling
the Williams seemed to gain the least (0.7s rather than 1.2s or so)
from the soft rather than medium tyres. On the other hand, if that
holds up, and they were challenging for pole on the softs, that could
have them set fair for the race.
Massa to be on the
podium at 2.7 looks good to me (Betfair), hedged at 1.33 (in case
he’s in a strong third but rain comes later).
If it rains at the
start I’ll be bloody annoyed. Unless both Mercedes crash out,
there’s a red flag and Massa wins, obviously.
Interlagos is probably
my favourite circuit. There have been many fantastic races there, so
hopefully we’ll have another one later today. Whatever happens the
title cannot be decided at this race.
Morris Dancer
Although Hamilton has that 24 point lead the double points in Abu Dhabi means a win isn't enough. So he'll stay on the track. If he doesn't take the lead on the first corner then I don't think there will be any heroics from him. Too much to lose.
ReplyDeleteEven with the short odds Rosberg has to still be value at 5/4 with Hills where I do most of my F1. He's got to go all out for two wins now. I'm taking the win.
Bottas might be behind Massa but he's been better all season. Think I'll take a podium there, or maybe each way.
Button has always been good in the wet and great at this track. Wo here 2 years ago and 4th last year from a 14th start. Not been out of the top 5 since 2008. Plus he's probably looking to put in a good one if he's going to be looking for a new seat next season. I got on heavily at 10/11 for a top 6 to make it worthwhile.
I know 2/7 for the safety car is silly but can you seriously see us not having one?
It's possible, but I think a safety car very likely. However, as you've suggested, the odds are very short.
ReplyDeleteBottas has been better most of the season. But the same could be said of Ricciardo. Massa's won at Interlagos at least once.
Well that went rather well - especially as the uncertainty shown in my comment about Bottas turned into inaction. Only the weather and thus the safety car let me down!
ReplyDelete