Brazil: pre-race

Damned weather forecast. Second race in a row I’ve had a qualifying bet in mind and not backed it, although this time it was down to the forecast being wrong. Oh well.

Grosjean, Vergne, Perez and Maldonado went out in Q1. Due to penalties reshuffling the pack, Vergne, Maldonado, Kvyat and Perez will be the last four on the grid.

In Q2 we lost Gutierrez (surprisingly quick in eleventh), Hulkenberg, Sutil and Kvyat. The penalties mean Grosjean will start alongside Sutil in the race.

Q3 was a bit tighter than expected. Rosberg claimed pole (and the qualifying trophy, a new prize this year) just 0.033s ahead of Hamilton. Massa might’ve challenged for pole but made a mistake on his final run. Despite that, he still claimed third ahead of Bottas. Either the Finn’s just happened upon two tracks he isn’t quite right on or Massa’s in the zone right now.

After a dodgy Friday, McLaren recovered well and Button got a strong fifth (incidentally, the rumour mill suggests an announcement of Alonso moving to McLaren, replacing Button, will be made shortly before Abu Dhabi). Vettel was sixth, followed by Magnussen and Alonso, with Ricciardo and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10.

Didn’t expect the McLaren to be so swift, the Williams to be so close to the Mercedes, or the Red Bull to be so poor. If it does rain, the Red Bull’s downforce should help it a lot. In the dry, the Williams is dominant in the final sector (long ‘straight’) which will mean it’s both hard to pass and has a good chance of overtaking other cars.

The forecast for the race is that it will be dry, but thunderstorms remain possible. Given the forecasters were wrong both the morning and afternoon on Saturday, keep an open mind about the elements.

So, it’s useful to consider what might happen if it’s wet, and what might happen if it’s dry.

In the wet, I’d expect Button and Hulkenberg to do relatively well, the Red Bulls also, and perhaps Bottas too [he’s good in the wet but his car lacks downforce]. Mercedes would retain dominance and might be even further ahead because the Silver Arrows have strong downforce and their nearest rivals here, Williams, do not. Hulkenberg points, Button podium and Ricciardo top six would all be possibilities.

In the dry, it might well be closer between Mercedes and Williams. Bottas has been starting badly recently, but Massa was strong last week and has been good again here. The gap from Williams to McLaren is over half a second, so I’d expect the top four to drive off into the sunset, but Button to stand a good chance of staying top six. I could see Ricciardo drifting up the order, Alonso perhaps going backwards. Not sure about Vettel and Magnussen. Suspect they may go backwards. I think Raikkonen and Gutierrez will drift back and Hulkenberg forward.

Potential bets:

Williams top score

Massa podium

Ricciardo top 6

Button podium

Hulkenberg points

Williams to top score is something I’m a little wary of. I’ve backed it twice, but the team seems to lack a little bit of luck and some strategic sharpness (Austria might’ve gone their way). So, long odds are necessary to tempt me. The 5 available is not enough.

Massa in the dry or Button in the wet have a decent crack at a podium. On Betfair, Massa’s 2.7 and Button’s 9. The Brazilian’s odds are quite tempting.

Ricciardo’s only 1.45 to be top 6. Doesn’t tempt me. The top four should be over the hills and far away, and the Red Bull may struggle to overtake due to being relatively slow on the long straight.

Hulkenberg (longer odds at Ladbrokes) is 1.72 for points. Unsure about this. Force India are the clear worst of the Mercedes-powered teams, he had a reliability failure in Austin last week, and when I checked the speed trap for Ricciardo (tenth, if you’re wondering) I noticed that Hulkenberg was 5km/h slower (possibly an effect of ruining his tyres on his fastest lap, but that’ll also harm him in the race).

Also worth recalling the Williams seemed to gain the least (0.7s rather than 1.2s or so) from the soft rather than medium tyres. On the other hand, if that holds up, and they were challenging for pole on the softs, that could have them set fair for the race.

Massa to be on the podium at 2.7 looks good to me (Betfair), hedged at 1.33 (in case he’s in a strong third but rain comes later).

If it rains at the start I’ll be bloody annoyed. Unless both Mercedes crash out, there’s a red flag and Massa wins, obviously.

Interlagos is probably my favourite circuit. There have been many fantastic races there, so hopefully we’ll have another one later today. Whatever happens the title cannot be decided at this race.

Morris Dancer