2014 F1 season review
This year has been a
slightly odd season. One team was utterly dominant, but because they
allowed the drivers to compete and they were pretty evenly matched it
remained closely fought until the final race (and it’s worth noting
that if Hamilton rather than Rosberg had suffered the power failure
in Abu Dhabi then Rosberg would be world champion right now).
Teams
From the very first
race a few things which would be critical for the season were
apparent. The Mercedes was fastest, by a mile. It was also a little
bit unreliable. The Mercedes engine was the best, by a mile.
Ricciardo would confound expectations and beat Vettel. The Williams
was very fast.
We also had a red
herring with a great McLaren result [something I’m considering for
next year is that McLaren seem to, for some reason, punch above their
weight in Australia, and the same may be true in Russia].
As the season wore on
it became clear the title would be between the Mercedes’ team
mates. We saw an epic duel in Bahrain (arguably the first time that
circuit has produced anything interesting, so perhaps they’ll keep
it as a night race), controversy in Monaco, collision in Spa, and
many reliability failures throughout the season. I expect 2015 to
also be very close between the two Mercedes drivers, with the team
likely to dominate next year as well.
Whilst Red Bull’s
whining grates, Ricciardo remained eminently likeable, and was a
revelation in a top team, pulling off perhaps the best passes of the
year. It’ll be interesting to see how he’ll do against Kvyat. I
suspect he’ll continue to be the de facto number one driver, but
given I thought Vettel would crush him perhaps my view should be
taken with a pinch of salt. It’s also worth noting that despite the
torrid testing time the team suffered they were the clear
best-of-the-rest after the irresistible speed of the Mercedes.
Williams wins the
Lazarus award for coming back from the dead. After a piffling 5
points and finishing 9th last year, they came 3rd,
beating the might of Ferrari and McLaren despite having far fewer
resources. Next season I expect them to do very well, but the
question will be whether they can challenge for wins, and beat Red
Bull.
The Ferrari pairing of
Alonso and Raikkonen looked great. But it wasn’t really. Alonso was
faster by a long way, the Finn never got to grips with the less than
pointy front end of the prancing horse, the engine was perhaps the
worst on the grid and the car was, once again, lacklustre. With James
Allison having more of a hand in next season’s there’s some hope,
but the team’s just lost arguably the best driver on the grid. The
Vettel-Raikkonen pairing could be interesting, as they’re
apparently friends. However, to beat Williams or Red Bull (never mind
Mercedes) they’ll need a much faster car.
McLaren had another
weak season, but it was a little strange. After (following
Ricciardo’s disqualification when his team decided following the
rules was optional) Australia’s double podium the car’s relative
pace slid backwards, and for a long while they were under serious
threat from Force India. However, they developed the car better, and
strong performances from Button enabled them to retain 5th.
But for a team like McLaren, the season remains a failure. Their
stronger results near the end of 2014 and renewed partnership with
Honda offers some hope for 2015, as does the probable yet unconfirmed
re-signing of Alonso.
Force India will rue
only finishing 6th after many strong performances earlier
in the season. With the best engine and a good driver lineup they
could’ve achieved more but went down an aerodynamic dead end in
development, losing relative pace as the season wore on to McLaren.
But for that, they could’ve finished a place higher. However, with
the best engine on the grid and retaining both Hulkenberg and Perez
(a very solid pairing, in my view) they may aspire to finish 5th
or even 4th next year.
Toro Rosso had a decent
season. Kvyat really hit the ground running, and Vergne performed
well (very well, in some cases). I think it’s a bit rough to throw
Vergne overboard and shove Kvyat into the top team, given the
Frenchman outscored the Russian by 22 points to 8. With Verstappen
(then 17) and Carlos Sainz Junior joining next year the drivers will
have a combined age a couple of years greater than Jenson Button by
himself. There’s a lot of good things being said about Verstappen.
We’ll see how he copes next year.
If Williams was
Lazarus, Lotus was Wile E. Coyote just as he realises he’s run off
a cliff. The performance absolutely nose-dived this season.
Grosjean’s a very good driver, he proved that when the car was
better in earlier seasons, but this year the Lotus was very poor in
almost all conditions. Next year, they’ll have the Mercedes engine
which will help them on cost, power and efficiency, but they still
need a fundamental redesign in order to climb up the order.
Marussia had the
ultimate up and down season. The talented Jules Bianchi (often touted
as destined for a top team) scored them their first points with a 9th
in Monaco. Later in the season he suffered a tremendously heavy
crash, and although he can now breathe unaided he remains in a very
serious condition. The team subsequently went into administration
and, despite having tens of millions in prize money heading their way
if they can find a buyer, things look bad for them entering the sport
in 2015.
It was a dreadful
season for Sauber. Sutil’s a decent but not outstanding driver, and
Gutierrez’s main asset seems to be his wallet. It’s unsurprising
the team, which suffered its first pointless year in the sport, has
axed both. They’re being replaced with Felipe Nasr (apparently it’s
now being pronounced Nasir, which will at least reduce commentator
confusion) and Marcus Ericsson. Those heady days of Perez and
Kobayashi getting four podiums in a year seem a long way off.
Caterham again finished
last, and also went into administration following a complex and
unseemly contract dispute between the current and former owners (the
former turning out to perhaps still be the owner). Despite this, they
made the final race and may return in 2015, though that remains
uncertain.
Drivers
Hamilton had a very
good season. The bad luck more or less evened itself out (there is a
strong case to say Rosberg had it worst, as he had at least 3
effective retirements [Abu Dhabi counting double], lost 7 points to
reliability in Canada and had a nightmare sequence of small
misfortunes in Hungary. In qualifying, he was second best although at
least part of this was due to his car occasionally exploding. In the
race, his pace was the same as Rosberg, but it was his wheel-to-wheel
advantage which made the difference and won him the title.
Rosberg also had a very
good season, matching Hamilton on pace and beating him (with some
help from good fortune) in qualifying. Wheel-to-wheel was his
Achilles’ Heel, but in Brazil he showed he could keep Hamilton
behind him for lap after lap, and that will help his confidence and
perhaps performance next year. Rosberg is a very serious title
contender for next year, and I expect the two team mates to be at it
hammer and tongs in 2015 once again.
Ricciardo was a
revelation at Red Bull, not only out-qualifying and out-racing Vettel
by a clear distance, but also pulling off probably the best passes of
the year. He’s an extremely impressive driver, and although I don’t
think he’ll be able to match the Mercedes’ chaps next year (due
to hardware rather than skill) he should be a world champion someday.
The honey badger has teeth.
Bottas won a tight
contest for 4th in the Drivers’ championship. He was
good all year but not flawless. An unforced error in Australia cost
him points, and at the end of the season he was starting badly.
However, he did achieve a variety of podiums, was solid in both
qualifying and in the races and will be aiming for a first win next
year.
Vettel seemed a bit
shell-shocked this season, probably due to a combination of a
substantial power deficit and the removal of a lot of downforce, at
which his team had always excelled. Having Ricciardo come along and
outperform him didn’t help, and the final race (where they started
21-22 and finished 4-8) was a good summary of how the season’s
gone. Vettel’s a very good driver but he needs to rediscover his
form. This season, after four successive titles, was poor.
Alonso once again drove
well, and once again punched above his weight given his car. However,
it seems that he and the short-lived team principal Mattiacci fell
out, and this encouraged the Spaniard to jump ship (can’t really
blame him).
Massa was 7th.
The first half of the season was reasonable but not outstanding,
though in the second half he put in some very good performances, most
notably in Brazil where he achieved a good podium finish. I would
guess that much of the improvement came as he properly bedded in with
the team and got used to changes in the car and team structure
compared to Ferrari. With Bottas, he forms a strong driver pairing
for Williams going forward.
Button won more than
twice the points of Magnussen, and performed better than him in both
the races and qualifying. When McLaren started out-developing the
Force India, the Briton was the chap leading the charge and racking
up points. I’ve been pretty impressed by Button, and hope he
retains his seat.
Hulkenberg, who’ll be
competing for Porsche at Le Mans in addition to racing for Force
India next year, had a good but not incredible season. Perez kept him
honest and he beat his team mate overall.
Perez was one place but
37 points below Hulkenberg. The Mexican’s performed well, but was
hampered by some reliability issues. Whilst I do think his German
team mate is the better driver the points are not a true reflection
of performance this year. Perez is a talented chap, and it’s good
to see both men retaining their seats.
Magnussen was
disappointing, to be honest. After an initial podium finish in
Australia, things looked set fair. But after that he was usually
second best to his team mate on both Saturdays and Sundays, and ended
up with fewer than half as many points as Button. If he keeps the
seat I hope he can improve rapidly.
Raikkonen had barely a
third the points of Alonso. Very poor. His only saving grace is that
if the team makes a pointier front end for him next year he might
roar back to life.
Vergne had a good
season, occasionally putting in cracking performances and usually
being solid. He had almost thrice as many points as his team mate but
is being given the heave-ho. After a good season, that’s rough.
Like Di Resta before him, he’s good enough to be in the sport but
is leaving it anyway.
Grosjean’s a bit hard
to assess because the Lotus wasn’t so much a dog as a rabid mongrel
that occasionally burst into flames. He’s a very good driver, and I
hope the team can offer him a car that at least gives him a chance to
show off his skill next year.
Kvyat was impressive.
At 19, I thought him too young, but he hit the ground running and
only made a handful of errors all season. However, he was out-paced
and out-scored by Vergne, which makes me think his promotion to Red
Bull may be premature. Ricciardo drove for HRT and then had a couple
of seasons with Toro Rosso before being promoted.
Maldonado must be
wondering whether leaving Williams for Lotus was a wise move.
Hampered by a car that was usually very slow and sometimes aflame, he
was also beaten by his team mate and rarely troubled the scoreboard.
Bianchi’s season is
defined by the horrific crash he suffered in bad weather. Whilst his
condition has improved it remains very serious, and I hope he can
make a full recovery.
Sutil, Ericsson,
Gutierrez, Chilton and Kobayashi [as well as one-off Caterham drivers
Stevens and Lotterer] scored nothing. This is down to the car more
than anything else. Kobayashi has proven himself a decent driver, and
we’ll see next year what Ericsson can do. It seems likely Sutil,
Gutierrez, Chilton and Kobayashi will not be joining us in 2015
[unless Caterham can find a buyer, perhaps].
Betting
The betting really was
a season of two halves. Really rather good in the first half, and
notably poor in the second (the second half was green if you
bet-and-forget and very slightly red if you hedged). Title bets, most
notably the 16/1 or 24/1 (depending on bookie) on Rosberg went well,
as although it didn’t come off it was very hedgeable. Other bets,
the 50/1 on Magnussen for the title, for example, didn’t come off
but were more than off-set by Mercedes’ dominance.
Oddly, I did better in
qualifying in the second half than I did in the race (in fact,
qualifying was green and racing red). First time I can recall that
happening. I did decide against 3 qualifying bets late on, 2 of which
ended up coming off. Mildly irked by that. The return on interest
[not including title bets] was 28% with hedging and 45% without.
Given how good the first half was, that’s a little disappointing,
but overall I was ahead so I can’t complain too much.
Rambling about the
future
The season also saw the
end of two ‘nice’ team principals: Stefano Domenicali (whose
successor has already been replaced, allegedly for the crime of
considering F1’s needs above the financial self-interest of the
Ferrari F1 team), and Martin Whitmarsh, who was deposed by a
resurrected Ron Dennis. We also saw, although this was known about
beforehand, the departure of Ross Brawn, which was a great shame.
Without him the Mercedes would not be so dominant right now. There
are rumours about his return, possibly including in a few years as an
Audi team principal. Whether that’ll happen or not I can’t say,
but it’d be great to see him come back.
I’ve put a small sum
on Betfair for Rosberg to win the title at 4.7, hedged at 3. I think
it’ll be a two horse race, and he came very close this year. Even
if he fails in 2015, the bet may very well be hedgeable.
My expectation is that
Mercedes will again be dominant. Williams may beat Red Bull (Kvyat
may struggle at the sharp end and at the end of 2014 the Williams was
the better car). Ferrari and McLaren will be interesting to watch for
personnel as well as engine reasons. Likewise Lotus. Sauber is hard
to predict, with two new drivers (although Sutil has raised a
contract dispute with the team).
It’s unclear whether
we’ll see Caterham again, but Marussia appears increasingly
unlikely to feature on the grid.
The season will be 20
races long, as we keep Austria (Williams will be pleased) and Mexico
joins the calendar. Azerbaijan is, I think, set for 2016.
The next post is likely to be pre-season, around the time of the tests next year.
Morris Dancer
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