Russia: post-race analysis
Well, the Kvyat top six
tip looks bloody stupid now. After Vergne got a top 6 somewhere
recently and with Red Bull looking ropey I thought it worth a shot. It
appears Toro Rosso screwed up their set-up so it was stellar in
qualifying and appalling in the race. Disappointed, and although the
qualifying tip means the loss is minimal, it’s still another red
race and (in the latter half) I’ve had a single winning race tip
from seven attempts, which is just rubbish.
The race itself wasn’t
the best, although my prediction of it being mostly processional at
the sharp end and more competitive in the lower points positions was
accurate.
Kvyat had a shocker of
a start, Magnussen had a good one and Alonso also flew up the order.
Rosberg just about got the jump on Hamilton but braked badly,
flat-spotting both tyres so he had to pit on lap 1.
Massa also pitted on
lap 1, although he went for softs, with Rosberg opting for mediums.
For Hamilton, it was a
lovely day at the seaside, cruising around serenely on his way to a
destined triumph. Bottas drove well but the car wasn’t quite up to
challenging the Mercedes. In fact, Rosberg managed to do 52/53 laps
on his medium tyres and passed Bottas, showing just how great the
Silver Arrows were (if he hadn’t cocked up the first corner,
Rosberg may have had the pace to beat Hamilton on track, but we’ll
never know for sure).
Kvyat had an atrocious
first lap after a bad start and slipped well back, Vergne also
sliding down the order. Button’s race was a strong but boring one,
finishing 4th, with Magnussen working his way up to 5th,
for McLaren’s best finish since the first race this season.
Alonso’s 6th
was impressive, and largely due to a great start. If he’d done
worse off the line I imagine he would’ve been behind the two Red
Bulls, who followed him. A poor performance for Red Bull, who today
also lost the Constructors’ title to Mercedes.
Raikkonen was 9th,
and Perez deserves great credit for 10th, which he
achieved despite fuel seeming to be critical and Massa right behind
him on fresher tyres (the Brazilian did two stops, unlike Rosberg).
Pretty poor from Massa, given his car.
Kvyat ended up 14th.
Stupid bet for him to be top 6, in hindsight, but I’m very
surprised just how badly wrong Toro Rosso got their race set-up.
Constructors:
Mercedes 565
Red Bull 342
Williams 216
Ferrari 188
McLaren 143
Force India 123
I think it’ll end in
that order. Williams could lose third to Ferrari if they cock up in
Abu Dhabi or are very unlucky but I don’t think that’ll happen.
McLaren’s strong finish in Russia appears to be the end of Force
India’s realistic hope for fifth. They’ve been out-developed and
I can’t see them regaining the place.
The win means Hamilton
has a 17 point advantage over Rosberg. That’s good but not
insurmountable. There are three races remaining, the last of which,
Abu Dhabi, has double points on offer (so, 50 for a win). If there
are no reliability failures I would feel confident predicting a
Hamilton title. But, if he suffers a reliability failure in Abu Dhabi
that could hand the title to Rosberg.
Pre-season I tipped
Rosberg (16 or so with Ladbrokes and about 23 with Betfair), and a
few races ago advocated backing Hamilton at around evens. Although
I’ll be disappointed if the German fails to win, I am green either
way and am pretty pleased with the bet.
It is theoretically
possible for Ricciardo to win the title. In the same way it’s
theoretically possible Scotland will become independent and make its
patron saint Margaret Thatcher.
The next race (the
excellent circuit in Austin) is three weeks away.
Morris Dancer
4 days 23h 25 min to P1 in Austin
ReplyDelete[drums fingers on table in annoying way]
It is irksome, but we do have three races in November, so it's swings and roundabouts.
ReplyDeleteNeither Marussia nor Caterham will be in the US, and likely won't be at Brazil either.