Russia: pre-race

Qualifying was quite unexpected. The bet came off, thankfully, but (top three aside) the grid is ordered pretty different to how I expected.

Because Marussia only ran one car, five rather than six drivers left the stage in Q1. As well as the Caterhams and Chilton, as expected, Maldonado (who seems to have had an ERS issue) and Massa (who had some sort of pressure problem with his engine) failed to escape to Q2. This was particularly rough on Massa, whose car has been looking rather tasty.

Q2 was mostly as expected. The two Force Indias, who have been losing the development war with McLaren quite badly of late, left, as did both Saubers. Grosjean likewise. Most unexpectedly, however, was Vettel in 11^th. He was a tenth off being in Q3, but failed to make the cut. The Red Bull’s looked a bit ropey, certainly compared to how it should be, all weekend, but the fact is his team mate got through and he did not.

Q1 was a mix of the routine and the remarkable. Hamilton pole, Rosberg 2^nd. Nothing too shocking. Except that Bottas was on for pole until his tyres gave up on the very last two corners (he still claimed a strong 3^rd). There’s a chance Mercedes may face a Finnish challenge in the race. Button got 4^th, the McLaren performing better than I’d expected after a somewhat dodgy P3. Kvyat delighted the home crowd with a best ever qualifying of 5^th, lining up alongside Magnussen, who did very well to claim 6^th with his only proper lap of Q3.

Ricciardo was next, and 7^th for the better Red Bull just isn’t good enough. Alonso and Raikkonen came next, which is not impressive, and Vergne was 10^th, eight-tenths off of his team mate.

So, a bit of a weird grid, except at the sharp end.

The circuit looks like overtaking will be tricky and a safety car may well appear. Forecast is for no rain.

Initial bets that spring to mind:

Bottas to win (either each way or hedged)

Massa to score

Kvyat top 6

Bottas to win is 13 with Ladbrokes (1/3 the odds each way) or 14 with Betfair. The problem he faces is that Mercedes can split their strategy, if necessary, and beating both Hamilton and Rosberg will be tricky. The odds are reasonable, so I’ll consider this further.

Massa is just 1.44 to score. Whilst likely, the odds are too short to tempt me.

Kvyat’s 2.5 to be top 6 (Ladbrokes). Not sure. Hmm. The Russian tends to finish roughly where he starts, I think, and the circuit may be hard to overtake on. Throughout qualifying he was about four-tenths up on Ricciardo but was perhaps fortuitous Magnussen didn’t get a decent run in Q3. Given the possibility of a safety car and many concrete walls to run into (or just having a bad start) the odds are too short to tempt.

Which leaves Bottas to win. The circuit Russia has been compared to most is Australia. Worth recalling both McLaren and Bottas went very well there (Bottas would’ve finished even better if he hadn’t had a small crash there). But could he realistically challenge the Mercedes?

Having contemplated it, I don’t think so. Yes, he was on for pole, but at every other session Mercedes was ahead, and the race will be many laps, not just one. I expect Bottas to have a strong race, but not a first win.

So, after mulling it over and waiting for Ladbrokes to get their markets up, here are some other potential bets:

Highest scoring team – McLaren – 17

Number of classified finishers – under 17.5 – 1.83

Bottas – podium – 1.66

Both teams to have a points finish – Force India – 3.25

The McLaren bet sounds crackers. Worth mentioning they did top score in Australia, and if a Mercedes fails then they’re in prime position to claim most points. Hmm. Although, now I think of it, Magnussen gets a grid penalty, so it’s not so great.

The classified finishers bet is based on a few things. First off, there are only 21 cars this weekend, so if only 4 fail to finish, it wins. Secondly, there’s a lot of concrete barriers around the track. On the other hand, there’s quite a bit of run-off as well and the tyres last a long time (although they can fall off a cliff, as Bottas showed in qualifying). Whilst tempting, I don’t think I’ll back this.

Bottas, all else being equal, is very likely to get a podium. But 1.66 is bloody short.

The Force India bet was also based on me forgetting Hulkenberg has a five place grid penalty which puts him down to 17^th. Which is a shame, as I was giving that serious thought.

Bearing in mind Magnussen’s penalty, I’ve decided to back Kvyat to be top 6 at 2.7 with Betfair. No hedge, because the odds are so low. I ruled that out before, but I think he’s got the pace and perhaps a slightly more comfortable chance of succeeding without the Dane and the rather good McLaren right next to him.

So, just the one bet:

Kvyat, top 6, 2.7 (no hedge)

I suspect at the sharp end the race may be a bit of a procession, but there could well be a good scrap around the lower half of the points positions.

Morris Dancer