Japan: post-race analysis
A quite entertaining
race, book-ended by tedium at the start and concern at the end.
Frustratingly, when it seemed the race might be a 2 lap trundle
behind the safety car (making my bet a winner), not only did it not
come off, the 1.5 hedge didn’t get matched. To be honest, given it
was red-flagged after barely a lap I was surprised it didn’t get
matched, and a bit disappointed.
It was wetter than
expected at the start. So much so that everyone started not only on
full wets but behind the safety car. After completing a single lap,
the safety car led the whole field into the pit lane. (Technically,
this meant they ‘completed’ lap 2, making half-points available
for award, when crossing the line in the pit lane).
Later, the rain eased,
but was still heavy, and all departed the pit lane, once again
following the safety car. Alonso suffered some sort of electrical
failure and his car ground to a halt, taking him out of the race
before it got really underway.
When the safety car
came in, the Mercedes drove away from the rest of the field at an
alarming rate of knots. For a time it was pretty much formation
flying. Button and Maldonado came in first for intermediate tyres,
and were shortly followed by pretty much everyone. Maldonado, for
whom track limits are a challenge rarely to be refused, left the
circuit twice, but Button kept his car on the track and ended up much
higher up the order due to his good call.
When the track was
still wet but drying it became quickly apparent that the Red Bulls
were a good margin faster than the Williams (directly ahead of them).
This was at least partly due to setup, which appeared to be very wet
for the former team, but they have typically been better in the wet
anyway. Once past Bottas, the two Red Bulls pulled ahead by roughly a
second a lap.
At the front, it was
weird. The gap was about 1.5-2s for quite a while, going up and then
down but staying roughly the same. When Hamilton passed Rosberg I
thought it was because the German’s tyres had degraded more.
Certainly, he then lost about 2s a lap to Hamilton, and pitted the
sooner. But afterwards, he was also substantially slower. Not sure if
he had a small technical fault or what, but the second bout of
slowness was peculiar.
For a time the Red
Bulls (and Button, who was driving very well, and as fast as any on
circuit at various times) seemed to pose a potential threat to
Rosberg, but they had to pit again and they didn’t get much glory
in the end.
Late on the rain
increased once more, Sutil and Bianchi appeared to have crashed (same
place but separately) and Bianchi is, at the time of writing, still
receiving medical attention, and may be seriously injured. Let’s
hope he’s ok.
A second and final red
flag appeared, and the race ended about six laps early.
Hamilton and Rosberg
got the one-two, extending the former’s lead to 10 points, the
largest it’s been all season. However, the race for the title is
far from over.
Vettel got his second
podium of the year, one spot above Ricciardo. Button’s excellent
wet weather driving and good tyre call enabled him to achieve an
impressive 5th. If he does leave the team after 2014 (and
probably the sport) they will miss him on days like today.
Bottas and Massa were
next. Neither drove badly, they simply lacked the grip cars with more
downforce enjoyed. They’ll be disappointed as, in the dry, they
were probably on for a much better result. On the other hand, they
strengthen their grip on the third spot in the Constructors’, which
is important.
Hulkenberg and Perez
got 8th and 10th respectively. I was surprised
to hear (after reading Twitter rumours yesterday Hulkenberg might
leave Force India for Porsche sports car racing) that the team are
apparently dissatisfied with Hulkenberg and more impressed with
Perez. Whilst Perez got the team a podium and Hulkenberg has not, the
German is on 76 points, a long way ahead of Perez’s 46.
Vergne got 9th,
which will hopefully help him get a seat next year. He does have the
pace for it.
Kvyat was 11th
and Raikkonen a lacklustre 12th.
So, when the switch to
intermediates occurred the Bottas bet looked unlikely. But given the
race was super-wet to start and got red flagged early on I was
disappointed and, frankly, surprised it didn’t get matched. The
forecast I checked (and which is generally highly accurate)
significantly underestimated the rainfall. However, with special
circumstances (such as a typhoon) that’s understandable and I
should’ve probably considered that.
Annoyingly, this means
my poor run in the latter half of the season continues.
After the race Hamilton
leads by 10 points, with four races left (including the double points
nonsense at season finale Abu Dhabi). I expect the title to be
decided in Abu Dhabi. The other circuits are the new track at Sochi
in Russia, the excellent Austin track in America, and perhaps my
favourite, Interlagos in Brazil. I do not expect Ricciardo to be in a
position to tilt at the title in Abu Dhabi (he’d need to be within
50 points).
The Constructors’
standings:
Mercedes 522
Red Bull 332
Williams 201
Ferrari 178
Force India 122
McLaren 121
The top two will finish
as they are. Williams has a hefty lead over Ferrari. It’s not
insurmountable but I do not think the Prancing Horse will manage to
get ahead. I believe Williams were 9th last year, so to
move to 3rd is a very impressive achievement indeed.
Button’s excellent drive today narrows the gap to Force India to a
single point. The McLaren looked better today, and that battle with
Force India will continue until the last race. I think McLaren will
end up winning it. Their car looks better right now.
The next race is
Russia, a new circuit, and is the very next weekend. Let’s hope
it’s a great and profitable race, and that we see Jules Bianchi
driving there.
Morris Dancer
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