Tuesday, 23 July 2013

Hungary: early discussion



Feels like bloody ages since the last race, but it’s only been three weeks. Hungary’s effectively all by itself (not unlike Kim Jong-Il in Team America: World Police), because Spa follows it after a four week break.

Pirelli have changed the tyre compounds from medium-hard to soft-medium (originally they were soft-medium, I think, but got moved in the hard direction when tyre issues occurred and have been moved back due to the new construction).

In addition, it’s likely to be hot, which should help Lotus and Ferrari. Force India have typically done well in such conditions too, but their pace in Germany was unexpectedly poor and they (as well as Mercedes) appear to have been hit hard by the ban on swapping rear tyres.

Obviously, the Pirellis are now a new construction, designed not to explode. However, Vettel and Hulkenberg both reckon that, for the driver, there’s little difference to the old ones. So, I’d guess the Germany pecking order is more or less what we’ll get at Hungary.

Hungary’s a circuit all about front end grip, and it’s a rather rubbish track. Because of the layout, it’s very hard to overtake. Passes on track will be due to wildly differing pace (Red Bulls Vs Caterhams, for example, or tyres falling off the cliff), and the start, as well as pit stops, will be where we see most overtaking.

So, there’ll be a premium on qualifying and I’d guess the starting grid and final result will be fairly similar. That said, I do anticipate the Silver Arrows going backwards.

As always, comments, thoughts, tips and cunning insights are all welcome.

Morris Dancer

3 comments:

  1. As usual, there appears to be very little value in the Hungarian GP betting markets, certainly among the big boys.
    Ultimately, out of frustration, I opted for having just a couple of quid on Ricciardo finishing top 6 having asked for and surprisingly obtaining 9.8 (8.4/1 net in real money) with Betfair. This is way ahead of the rest of the market and is rather a longshot I know, but then it's a long price. I'll be looking to lay this off during the race if possible.

    I've also had a couple of "bottom fishing" bets with Betfair which if nothing else provide entertainment value:

    37p @75 (72/1 net) against Massa winning. If these are truly realistic odds then he certainly shouldn't be driving for Ferrari.

    82p @19 (17/1) against Grosjean winning. For under a quid, this provides me with a handy bit of insurance against my SELL spread bet on this Driver's season's points.

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  2. Whilst the Ricciardo bet looks decent, I wouldn't back the others.

    Obviously the Grosjean bet is some insurance for a spread bet, so that's a separate issue. I'd be surprised if Massa were in a position to challenge, but if you set up a hedge you could end up green either way.

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  3. I've only invested a total of £1.19 on these two fun bets, so I won't be losing a lot of sleep that's for sure.

    In seeking out some shorter-priced value, I'm intending to look at some LAYING opportunities, probably concentrating my efforts on the Podium and Top 6 finish markets.

    If you can't beat the bookies then join 'em is what I say!

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