Hungary: early discussion
Feels like bloody ages since the last race, but it’s only
been three weeks. Hungary’s
effectively all by itself (not unlike Kim Jong-Il in Team America:
World Police), because Spa follows it after a four week break.
Pirelli have changed the tyre compounds from medium-hard to
soft-medium (originally they were soft-medium, I think, but got moved in the
hard direction when tyre issues occurred and have been moved back due to the
new construction).
In addition, it’s likely to be hot, which should help Lotus
and Ferrari. Force India
have typically done well in such conditions too, but their pace in Germany
was unexpectedly poor and they (as well as Mercedes) appear to have been hit
hard by the ban on swapping rear tyres.
Obviously, the Pirellis are now a new construction, designed
not to explode. However, Vettel and Hulkenberg both reckon that, for the
driver, there’s little difference to the old ones. So, I’d guess the Germany
pecking order is more or less what we’ll get at Hungary.
Hungary’s
a circuit all about front end grip, and it’s a rather rubbish track. Because of
the layout, it’s very hard to overtake. Passes on track will be due to wildly
differing pace (Red Bulls Vs Caterhams, for example, or tyres falling off the
cliff), and the start, as well as pit stops, will be where we see most
overtaking.
So, there’ll be a premium on qualifying and I’d guess the
starting grid and final result will be fairly similar. That said, I do
anticipate the Silver Arrows going backwards.
As always, comments, thoughts, tips and cunning insights are
all welcome.
Morris Dancer
As usual, there appears to be very little value in the Hungarian GP betting markets, certainly among the big boys.
ReplyDeleteUltimately, out of frustration, I opted for having just a couple of quid on Ricciardo finishing top 6 having asked for and surprisingly obtaining 9.8 (8.4/1 net in real money) with Betfair. This is way ahead of the rest of the market and is rather a longshot I know, but then it's a long price. I'll be looking to lay this off during the race if possible.
I've also had a couple of "bottom fishing" bets with Betfair which if nothing else provide entertainment value:
37p @75 (72/1 net) against Massa winning. If these are truly realistic odds then he certainly shouldn't be driving for Ferrari.
82p @19 (17/1) against Grosjean winning. For under a quid, this provides me with a handy bit of insurance against my SELL spread bet on this Driver's season's points.
Whilst the Ricciardo bet looks decent, I wouldn't back the others.
ReplyDeleteObviously the Grosjean bet is some insurance for a spread bet, so that's a separate issue. I'd be surprised if Massa were in a position to challenge, but if you set up a hedge you could end up green either way.
I've only invested a total of £1.19 on these two fun bets, so I won't be losing a lot of sleep that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteIn seeking out some shorter-priced value, I'm intending to look at some LAYING opportunities, probably concentrating my efforts on the Podium and Top 6 finish markets.
If you can't beat the bookies then join 'em is what I say!