Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Germany: early discussion



Despite financial difficulties at one of the two German host circuits (I forget if it’s this one or Hockenheim, with which the Nurburgring alternates) we’re back to the Nurburgring this year. It seems mad to me that events like the Belgian or German Grand Prix can be in jeopardy due to financial reasons but tedious Monaco doesn’t even pay a race fee.

Anyway, there are a few big issues to discuss ahead of P1. Before we get to the problems men face when rubber bursts just as they’re getting into things, let’s talk Vettel.

Specifically, two weird stats. He’s never won the German Grand Prix. He’s never won a race in July. Even in his ultra-dominant 2011 season he only managed fourth at the Nurburgring. That’s something well worth keeping in mind when it comes to race betting. I also think that Mercedes could be set pretty fair. They’re the best qualifying team on the grid and showed very good race pace in Britain. I suspect Hamilton would’ve won the race, had he and Vettel not suffered car problems.

Speaking of Hamilton, he’s broken up with his long term girlfriend, Nicole Scherzinger. The last time the couple had some issues (late 2011) Hamilton’s on-track form disintegrated. Hopefully that won’t happen this time.

And, as McLaren have decided trying to make their dog of a car any better this year is nigh on impossible, they’ve already shifted focus to the 2014 car (though they’ll continue to develop the 2013 one in ways that can be transferred to next year’s car).

So, tyres. Pirelli will now actually get to do some testing, and have race drivers do it (at the Young Driver Test). There may also be other tests before that, but there’s just not enough time to do any before Germany. At this stage it’s unclear precisely what they’ll do for the Nurburgring. Changes to the tyre are likely to make it harder (if any changes of soft/hardness occur), which would help Red Bull and Mercedes.

We could see a return to 2012 tyres or the updated 2013 tyres which some teams vetoed (those teams have since said that they would not oppose the tyre change on safety grounds).

Early forecasts are for the race weekend to be dry.

As always, your comments, insights, tips, witticisms and haikus are welcome.

Morris Dancer

4 comments:

  1. Just one bet for me so far.
    No surprise that I'm sticking with one of my favourite markets, i.e. Top Ten Finish.

    The surprise, even to my myself, is that I've gone for Jenson Button .... yes really!

    Well there have been tiny signs that McLaren are at last improving ever so gradually and it's high time they were back in the points.

    The best odds are from Bet365 at 10/11.

    I may back Grosjean to finish top 6 if I can get 3/1 or better, principally as a means of insurance against my SELL spread bet on his season's points.

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  2. Hmm. Whilst I think there's a reasonable chance of that I'd not be inclined to back it. The McLaren's a dog of a car. Points are possible, but not probable, I suspect.

    I was about to berate your Grosjean bet, but as insurance from your spread bet it could make sense. Not sure it's needed, though. The Mercedes, Red Bulls, Raikkonen, Ferraris and Force Indias *should* all be ahead of him.

    I'll wait and see how P3 goes. No real bets in mind, though the Mercedes and Red Bulls will probably fight for pole again.

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  3. Your right in essence about Grosjean - it's difficult for example to envisage him finishing in a podium position.
    It's arguably worthwhile my putting down a bit of insurance against him finishing in the top 6, considering that 6th place itself would earn him 8 points and would therefore cost me £40 (8 x £5) on my spread bet.

    I suppose the most sensible way to view this would be to ignore his placings in individual Grand Prix and rest content that overall he's going to finish well below the 103 points for the season, this being the level at which I struck my bet.

    After all the problems at Silverstone, you'd have to think that Race Director Charlie Whiting will be even more defensive than usual in terms of deploying the safety car and that for example virtually any puncture for any reason will result in this happening.
    Accordingly, I've had a small punt with Betfair at odds of 7/5.

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  4. I just checked the years which I think the race was held at the Nurburgring (2011, 2009, 2007 and 2005), and (possibly excepting 2005, which is unclear) there was a safety car at each one. So, that might be a cunning bet.

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