Mexico: pre-race 2024

The first session of qualifying was one to forget for both Piastri and Perez. The Aussie locked up on a lap that would have secured him a straightforward progression. After that, he was unable to hook up a lap and went out embarrassingly early. (Last year, Norris went from 17th to 5th so we’ll see how Norris can do). Perez also failed to proceed, and is 18th, one place behind Piastri. Given where their team mates ended up, this is pretty awful. Ahead of them but also out at this stage was Colapinto, while Ocon and Zhou Guanyu were last of all.

Q2 was rather more orderly, with both RBs (Tsunoda ahead by four-hundredths), both Aston Martins (Alonso ahead by a tenth) and Bottas going out. Worth noting the Japanese driver also crashed and brought out a very late red flag.

And so to Q3 which looked pretty open between the Ferraris, Norris, and Verstappen, with the latter perhaps seeming to be the favourite. In the end it was the Smooth Operator who ended up with an impressive pole, Sainz leading the first row ahead of Verstappen. Norris is right behind and alongside Leclerc, and the very long run to the first corner means buggering your start will be terrible. But a flyer could see someone make up a bundle of places.

Row three is Mercedes land, Russell three-tenths faster than his team mate. Magnussen qualified 7th for Haas with Hulkenberg only 10th, so particularly good for the Dane and a strong result for the team overall. Gasly’s 8th, 11 places higher than his team mate, is really rather good.Albon ended up 9th, seven places up the road from Colapinto.


There is a small chance of rain during the race.


Early Betting Thoughts

Sainz/Leclerc, win
Piastri, top 6
Norris, win

Ferrari have looked good all weekend and are off the back of an impeccable 1-2. While Leclerc is a little further down the grid in 4th, this is the sort of circuit where a strong start can yield great dividends. Bizarrely, Sainz was not present on Ladbrokes but had Betfair odds of 2.74. Leclerc has each way boosted odds of 6.5, or 7.8 on Betfair. I think the each way odds are worth backing. Sainz could be vulnerable off the line and Leclerc is well-placed to take advantage of Verstappen and Norris squabbling.

Piastri could break into the top 6 if he reproduces what Norris did last year. And the McLaren is a very good car. He’s 1.84 to make it into the top 10. I think there’s a good shot of this although passing can be difficult. The Aussie does have the pace and the car to do it, but the odds might be a tiny bit tight.

Norris starts off in 3rd, which does mean he may be able to benefit significantly from a slipstream (which also applies to Leclerc).He’s 3 to win, 3.6 with Betfair, but has stiff competition all around him and a bad habit of starting poorly. I’m not inclined to back him at those odds.


My plan had been to wait for the markets to get going then peruse them. Small chance I might still do that but probably won’t. Any extra tips will be up on politicalbetting.com. 

For now, just the 6.5 each way on Leclerc to win.

Race start is 8pm UK time.


Morris Dancer