America: pre-race 2024

The bet was close, but no cigar alas, Sainz ending up third fastest in qualifying.

In the sprint race, pace was slightly hard to assess as the McLarens seemed under-fuelled, improving their starts but requiring lifting and coasting during the event itself. This enabled Norris t get up to 2nd, behind Verstappen but he ended up being passed by Sainz, who had a lovely race, passing his team mate, Russell (who soon drifted back from the Ferraris) and then Norris on the final lap. The lower reaches of the points were Hamilton, Magnussen, and Hulkenberg.

At this stage I was quietly hopeful of Sainz for pole.

Qualifying had some twists. In the first session both Williams and both Saubers going out was not huge news, but Hamilton failing to escape was. He was 19th but will rise to 18th (assuming he does not go for a pit lane start) due to Lawson’s huge pit lane penalty.

Tsunoda and Lawson (the latter lacking a real attempt) were fastest and slowest in Q2. Hulkenberg had a shocker of a second lap but still qualified 12th, and he, and Ocon and Stroll, were eliminated while their team mates progressed.

It was looking very like a Verstappen pole with it being close between Norris and the Ferraris for the second slot, but during the first run Norris put in a cracking lap for provisional pole. This turned into actual pole when Russell put in a trademark crash and brought out late double yellows. Lucky for Norris as he was going slower and Verstappen faster (Sainz was also going well, so there’s an off-chance it did affect the bet but I suspect not).


So, the title rivals share the front row, Norris leading the way. Sainz and Leclerc are the second row, with Piastri leading Russell on row three. Gasly and Alonso qualified 7th and 8th, with Magnussen and Perez finish off the top 10.


Early Betting Thoughts
Hulkenberg, points
Sainz, podium

Hulkenberg had the pace to be in the top 10 but had an uncharacteristically poor second attempt in Q2. He qualified 12th. At 2.1 for points this is an ok but not amazing bet.

Sainz is 1.67 for a podium finish. Things could get very tasty indeed between Norris, Verstappen, Sainz, and Leclerc. Hard to judge but the odds are too short to tempt me.


Despite waiting until midday before checking the markets they weren’t entirely online (my favourite category of group bets weren’t up) but most were. So, here’s what caught my eye:

Magnussen to beat Hulkenberg, 1.73
Colapinto to beat Albon, 3.5
Sainz, lead lap 1, 9.4
Sainz, win, 7

Magnussen has been pretty good this weekend, qualifying close behind his team mate in the sprint only to finish one place ahead. In qualifying for the grand prix he’s three places up the road.

Colapinto is one place and one-hundredth of a second behind Albon. As such, 3.5 for him to finish ahead is too long.

There’s a big gap (10 to 19) and small funds available on Betfair but I did want to flag up the possibility of Sainz leading lap 1. The first corner can be a good opportunity for overtaking and we know that, previously, Norris had notoriously bad starts, although that seems to have become a thing of the past.

Because of the McLaren tactic of fuel saving in the sprint assessing pace is difficult. Sainz should not be ruled out of winning this race on merit. Or Leclerc, for that matter, but I think the Spaniard’s looking particularly good. Was Verstappen pacing himself in the sprint and, if so, how much? Sainz to win at 7 is something worth considering. This actually changed as I was writing, not in terms of odds but adding an each way option.

I found it hard to decide between the Sainz each way at 7.5 (boosted) and Colapinto at 3.6 to beat Albon, so decided to back both. We’ll see if that proves foolish or not. If you want to set up a hedge on Sainz, I’d set it at 3.



Morris Dancer