Azerbaijan: pre-race 2023

 

And so, the most stupid format since the last attempt to fiddle with qualifying plays out this weekend.

In qualifying for the actual race, there was something of a upset, and two red flags (which were not surprising at all).

First part of qualifying saw a red flag when De Vries smacked into a corner, and another when, on the restart, Gasly tagged the wall. Some others did gently hit walls and got away with it, but not great for either chap. When Magnussen had to pit due to a technical problem this filled three-fifths of the Q1 departures list. Zhou Guanyu and Hulkenberg (who had looked pretty swift earlier) ended up completing the list.

In Q2 Russell was eliminated by two-hundredths, just behind Hamilton (who made it through). Ironically, his team mate had given Piastri, who knocked Russell into the drop zone, a tow on the straight. Ocon also left, as did Albon, who bemoaned Sainz getting in his way. The Williams had looked a potential Q3 contender, though Sargeant may be glad just to have made Q2. Bottas also left at this stage.

Heading into Q3 it looked like the pole was between the Red Bulls and Leclerc, and so it proved. Surprisingly, it was the Monegasque who got pole (third in a row on this circuit), with Verstappen 2^nd and Perez 3^rd. Sainz got 4^th, which he may be pleased with given how far he was off his team mate throughout.

Hamilton surpassed prior form to claim 5^th, ahead of Alonso (who had seemed more competitive earlier in the session). Row four is Norris and Tsunoda, while the fifth row consists of Stroll and Piastri.

I didn’t actually watch the sprint qualifying. F1’s sprint bullshit has always been pointless and gimmicky, overstuffing a weekend like a fat sod who thinks eating one more burger is fine but just ends up bloated. The qualifying lasting longer than the race is just more rubbish.

The shitbag sprint shootout tedium had the following result, setting up the grid for the sprint race:

Leclerc (pole, again)

Perez

Verstappen

Russell

Sainz

Hamilton

Albon

Alonso

Stroll

Norris

==Q3 cutoff==

Piastri

Hulkenberg

Ocon

Magnussen

Sargeant

==Q2 cutoff==

Zhou Guanyu

Bottas

Tsunoda

Gasly

De Vries

One thing to note is that Gasly’s exhaust failed during sprint qualifying, after it had to be replaced yesterday.

The sprint race I did watch to see pace in something like race conditions. My feeling beforehand was that Azerbaijan was a bloody stupid circuit to hold it given the potential for red flags.

No red flag but there was a virtual then actual safety car. Lecler ended up 2^nd to Perez’s assured win following a pass on the straight. Verstappen could only manage 3^rd. Perez may be in with a shot for victory tomorrow, even starting on the second row.

Albon was also pretty good and may be able to climb a bit during the race. Tyre degradation was high and there’s sod all chance of seeing the soft tyre unless something weird happens. Two stops seem eminently possible.

Leclerc was more or less there with the Red Bulls but the straight line deficit cost him to Perez (though not, interestingly, Verstappen). Late addition: turns out Verstappen’s car had a big hole in the side following collision with Russell. And he was still able to keep in touch with Leclerc and be untroubled by the Briton once he passed him. Ominous for non-Red Bull chaps.

Be aware that Ocon starts from the pit lane due to changing parts. The race should be dry throughout.

Early betting thoughts:

Perez win, each way

Albon points

Perez does start only on the second row but he was rather good in the sprint and the Red Bull looks dominant. However, his odds each way are only 4 which may be too short to tempt given the potential for carnage at this circuit. This can even apply to frontrunners as the high chance of a safety car will lead to bunching up and the possibility of restart woe. Perhaps a good idea for a free bet.

Albon started 7^th and finished 9^th in the sprint, losing out to Hamilton and Stroll. However, the Williams is pretty slippery in a straight line which matters a lot here. For the race, he starts 13^th and had the pace to be higher. 2.2 for points is a bit mean, though, given the carnage premium that might be attached to this race.

And so destiny proclaimed I ought to once more peruse the markets and see if anything leapt out.

Leclerc, podium, 1.91

Albon, win group 3, 2.5

AlphaTauri/Alpine, 1-2 cars not classified, 2.25/2.3 respectively

Leclerc looked vulnerable to the Red Bulls on the straight but he did have very solid pace overall, so should be aspiring for a podium finish. 1.91 is not bad given the pace comparison, my only doubt is, again, the circuit can have a high toll.

Group consists of Albon, Gasly, Ocon, and Bottas. Albon starts 1 place ahead of Bottas, and six ahead of Gasly, while Ocon starts from the pit lane. I suspect the Thai driver has a great shot of finishing top of this little lot, if he makes it to the end. Again, though, 2.5 could be longer.

And now a negative bet. AlphaTauri have had problems this weekend due to some misfortune and some incompetence. One or two of them not being classified at 2.25 is probably the most tempting bet I’ve seen so far. Alpine are in a similar state with Gasly and Ocon both suffering the needs for parts changes and/or parts failures.

Not the most exciting bet in the world but I’ve decided to back AlphaTauri to have one or two not classified drivers. De Vries is having a shocker, and the 3.5 on him specifically not being classified is also worth considering. But my bet is the 2.25 on either or both of them failing to be classified.

There may or may not be a post-race ramble. Race start is midday, UK time.

Morris Dancer