Imola: pre-race 2022

So, the pointless exercise in cash-gouging mediocrity that is the sprint race has ended. I’ll be honest, it was pretty entertaining. The format remains ridiculous, however.

Three chaps (Haas drivers plus Latifi) started on the medium tyres, and the only one who made it work really was Schumacher. Everyone else was on the softs.

Off the line, Verstappen left the handbrake on and was easily passed by Leclerc (he came close to losing a spot to Norris as well, but managed to fend the Briton off). The Mercedes both went backwards, before a lap 1 safety car emerged after some Zhou-Gasly clumsiness put the Chinese out and the Frenchman into an emergency pit stop.

When the safety car came in Leclerc was able to retain his lead and seemed set fair to extend his seemingly effortless title advantage over his rival. Further back, both Perez and Sainz were improving on lacklustre qualifying performances, to the detriment of McLaren primarily, ending up 3^rd and 4^th respectively. While Norris did finish ahead of Ricciardo (5^th and 6^th) in the latter stages the Aussie was significantly faster.

At the sharp end, Leclerc developed graining and Verstappen was able to get within DRS range. Even though the single zone seemed overpowered, the Ferrari was able to stay ahead for multiple laps but, in the end, patience told (a rare thing to say about Verstappen) and he was able to pass, before pulling away with ease (had the race been two or three laps longer than 21 it’s possible Perez would’ve got Leclerc too).

Bottas also had a tasty race, climbing to 7^th, with Magnussen holding on for the final sprint race point behind him. Alonso spent most of his time defending and in the end had to settle for 9^th, with Mick Schumacher starting the race tomorrow in 10^th.

Grid slots 11-16 are Russell and Tsunoda, Vettel and Hamilton, and Stroll and Ocon. The back two rows are Gasly and Albon, and Latifi and Zhou. Speaking of Zhou Guanyu, his team’s rebuild of his car caught the attention of stewards, so he will now start from the pit lane (although he was last, anyway).

Apparently the race is likely dry, with possible showers.

Early betting thoughts:
Perez top 2 finish
Bottas top 6
McLaren double points

Perez is 11 to win, with a third the odds for top 2. He was not seen too much during the sprint due to battles elsewhere but had a good performance throughout and was rapidly catching Leclerc towards the end. Tyre management is a well-known strength of Perez, and also where Leclerc’s Ferrari let him down. Odds are neither awful nor fantastic, but worthy of consideration.

Bottas started 8^th and finished 7^th, but was within half a second of Ricciardo and only a couple more seconds off Norris. Top 6 is eminently possible and will likely be a tussle between him and the McLarens (intrigued to see how Magnussen will do when he isn’t on a different tyre to everyone else). His odds are evens, with Betfair.

McLaren looked solid, and it was unusual to see Ricciardo having the better pace. He did finish behind Norris but definitely looked faster. The team are only 1.57 for a double points finish, though.

And so, a sleepy perusal of the markets occurred. Here’s what caught my eye:
Ricciardo, winner without the big 6, 3.5
Ricciardo, top 6 finish, 2
Leclerc, lead lap 1, 3.4 (Betfair)
Bottas, winner without the big 6, 3

Ricciardo looked tasty in the sprint so it’s mildly surprising he’s at 3.5 (longer than Bottas’ 3) to be the winner without the big 6. He’s also evens (2.26 Betfair) to be top 6, which could happen due to woe at the sharp end (we’ve seen 4 DNFs from the top two teams so far this year). Both of these are quite tempting.

In the sprint, Verstappen’s start was tardy and he came close to losing out to Norris as well as Leclerc. If history repeats itself, the 3.4 Leclerc lead lap 1 bet will be a winner. It’s certainly worth thinking about.

Bottas also showed well in the sprint but the problem he faces is being a lone gunner against two McLarens who could split their strategy.

Bit tricky deciding between the Ricciardo/Bottas bets and the Leclerc lap 1 bet. Ricciardo did perform well, but Bottas clawed himself to within a couple of tenths of the Aussie at the flag (I think the two of them are best of the rest, or were in the sprint).

I think Bottas at 2.1 on Betfair to have a top 6 finish is worth backing. He’s got the pace to do it on merit and may also benefit if reliability woe strikes those ahead of him.

The race is at 2pm UK time.

 

Morris Dancer