Australia: pre-race 2022

Qualifying had two red flags, one needless, one lucky, and one of the top chaps out of kilter due to the latter.

The Aston Martin chaps rushed to get both cars ready for the first session but it seemed they would only be able to get out Stroll. Yet when he and Latifi unnecessarily collided on slow laps it produced a red flag and sufficient delay for Vettel’s car to be fixed, just in time. He was only able to qualifying 18th but will be promoted to 17th due to Albon’s 3 place penalty for last race’s crash. Magnussen also failed to proceed, with Latifi and Stroll obviously also exiting at this stage.

The second session had some surprising departures, with both Alfa Romeos going out, as did both AlphaTauris. Mick Schumacher was the slowest man in the session.

Third practice saw a second red flag, Alonso crashing due to car failure (hydraulics/gears). The red flag robbed Sainz of a good time but Leclerc managed to squeeze over the line. Alonso himself might well have been on the front two rows, so a bad red flag for Spanish drivers all round.

Leclerc’s second run was good enough to secure himself another pole, ahead of Verstappen and Perez, but his team mate (with limited time) was unable to set a good lap and starts only 9th. Norris did well to get his McLaren up to 4th, while row three consists of Hamilton and Russell. Ricciardo and Ocon follow, with Alonso 10th, assuming no penalties.

Speaking of which, Albon has a 3 place grid penalty from last time (and has since been disqualified for a fuel irregularity) and it’s possible the Stroll/Latifi crash could incur a penalty for one of them. Also, Perez is under investigation for speeding under yellow flags.

Stroll also got a 3 place grid penalty, which doesn’t mean much as he started last anyway.

Early betting thoughts:

Sainz, podium
Alonso, top 6
McLaren, double points

Sainz is 3.5 for the podium with Ladbrokes. Too short, given the chance for carnage and contact early on, I think. Not awful, but not great.

At the time of writing, I’m not sure where Alonso will start. If it’s 10th, he’s got a good chance of getting ahead of rivals and near or into the top 6. He has odds of 2.8 (Betfair, 2.5 on Ladbrokes). Not too tempting.

McLaren are 1.73 for a double points finish. On pace, that looks near certain. There’s always the chance of collision or reliability woe, however. This is quite appealing, despite the short odds.

Perez will not be penalised for going too fast under yellow flags.

Anyway, perusing the full markets, here’s what I saw:

Under 16.5 classified finishers, 1.83
Perez, winner each way, 9

With Albon out already it takes only three retirements for 16.5 or under classified finishers to pay off. The first two races has six and three non-classified finishers. As per Saudi Arabia, the track is tight with many barriers and gravel traps to take someone out. It does appear easier to follow this year, which also increases the chances of cars being close together. I’m pretty tempted by the classified finishers bet.

Perez is one of three chaps near the sharp end, and while he starts 3rd he has looked, unusually, far more comfortable than Verstappen. 9 to win (each way, third the odd stop 2), or 10 and hedged on Betfair may simply be too long.

The under 16.5 classified finishers bet at 1.83 is the most appealing to me. First street circuit of the year so not much form on this type of track, but we have seen plenty of woe already this weekend and nine DNFs in the first two races already. Anyway, that's what I've backed.

Race start is 6am UK time. Hoping to be up in time to see it.

 

Morris Dancer

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

Image
Bit of a whopper of an article, but it didn’t make sense to write two for the Bahrain tests, as they were so close together. Many of the rule changes are helpfully outlined here: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/22058/9077826/gearing-up-for-2014-the-rule-changes-uncovered-and-explained-part-one This is one more reason why reliability is to critical. Losing a whole power unit (exceeding the 5 per season limit) means starting the next race from the pit lane. Losing a component, such as the turbo, means a 10 place grid penalty. On day one of the first test in Bahrain it appeared the Renault/Red Bull woe might continue. However, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso got in good running on the second day. Any remaining issues seem more to do with the car rather than the power unit. It’s been suggested the Renault requires significantly more cooling than rival engines, but apparently there are upsides. If the horsepower rumours were true (Mercedes being mighty and Ferrari better
Read more

Japan: early discussion

Image
As we enter the latter stages of the season we have multiple pairs of back-to-back races, hence this discussion starting a day after the Korean Grand Prix (which may be the last, incidentally. The circuit’s too isolated, surrounding developments haven’t been built and the organisers are annoyed by the high cost of staging the race which is the only use of the circuit all year). The Suzuka circuit is a proper one, with lots of elevation changes, a very fast flowing section (similar to Silverstone) and some very high speed corners. Sadly, I expect this will mean it’ll suit Red Bull. However, given their resurgence, it’s worth mentioning that last year Sauber had a strong result at Suzuka, when Kobayashi got third. Perhaps Hulkenberg will be able to get good points again (thanks to him Sauber are now tied on points but ahead of Toro Rosso in the Constructors’) and Gutierrez could nab his first point or two. Lotus benefited from some fortune with the safety car timing in Kore
Read more

America: pre-race

Image
Q1 saw the pointless teams ditched as usual, but there was a stark divergence between the Williams’ drivers. Bottas was 1st (in Q1 only), and Maldonado 18th. Turns out money can only buy seats, not speed. Surprising to see such a difference between the two drivers, though. Sutil went out in 17th, and may have suffered some sort of technical problem as he peeled off after his final lap. During Q2 it was confirmed Sutil had a problem, namely a slow puncture. Q2 saw the surprise departure of Rosberg. The Mercedes seemed to be the best of the rest, so that’s quite a shock. Not only that, he’s 14th, behind Ricciardo, Di Resta and Button (although Button suffers a 3 place grid penalty for ignoring red flags during practice). Massa is behind Rosberg, followed by Vergne. Impressively, Sauber got both of their cars into the top 10. Q3 was surprisingly close, but Vettel narrowly got pole ahead of Webber. Grosjean continues his strong form with 3rd, followed by Hulkenberg, who is
Read more