Saudi Arabia: pre-race 2021
Qualifying looked like it might be very close, but it exceeded expectations in that regard. Less brilliant was my internet deciding now would be an optimal time to stop functioning. *sighs*
The odd ducks in Q1 were the Aston Martins, neither of whom were fast enough to escape. Slightly odd to see, as were the Alfa Romeos, both of whom (again, unusually) made it into Q2 fairly easily. The Haas drivers were eliminated too, Mazepin the slower, as was Latifi.
In Q2, Alfa Romeo continued their weirdly good run of form, and while Raikkonen was eliminated in 12th (just behind Ricciardo), Giovinazzi made it through to Q3. Alonso and Russell were also out. Slowest was Sainz, but that was because his car let go and while he almost escaped unscathed the rear wing was damaged and he couldn’t put in a real time.
Heading into Q3, Verstappen looked to have a pace advantage, but a marginal one. He duly set the first time on the first run but Hamilton was faster when he had his second fast lap (ahead of Verstappen). The Dutchman responded with a purple first sector, and a purple second sector, but he was leaving no margin of error and in the third sector struck the wall, bringing out a late yellow and leaving the front row entirely to Mercedes, with his title rival on pole. Worse yet, he may have damaged his gearbox and require a new one (entailing a 5 place grid penalty should this occur).
Hamilton thus starts on pole, a tenth ahead of Bottas and with Verstappen in 3rd. Leclerc is alongside the Dutchmen with Perez right behind. Then we have Gasly, Norris, and Tsunoda, with Ocon and Giovinazzi bringing up the rear. I believe every driver in the top 10 except Norris is on the medium (Norris is definitely on the soft… not sure about Giovinazzi).
Verstappen win
Perez podium
Low number of classified finishers
Ferraris not to be classified
Verstappen is 3.75 for the win. Given overtaking is possible
but hard and he may have a 5 place grid penalty (uncertain at the time of
writing) this is not something I’ll be backing.
Perez is 3.25 for a podium. If Verstappen’s behind him he’ll move over, so the question is, DNFs notwithstanding, whether he can beat Bottas. The Red Bull has looked pretty decent but the Finn was half a second up the road and track position matters. Again, probably not something I’ll go for.
There was no classified market at the time of first
checking.
Likewise, this ruled out the Ferrari bet.
In accordance with the principles laid out by Zhuge Liang, I then consulted the markets to see if anything especially appealed.
Giovinazzi to win group 4, at 2.6Tsunoda to win group 3, at 4.75
Gasly to win group 2, at 4.75
Fastest lap, Verstappen, 3.25
First lap leader, Verstappen, 8.2 (Betfair)
Group is the Aston Martins, Alfa Romeos, and Russell. Giovinazzi starts two places ahead of the next nearest group member and is a quarter of a second faster than Russell’s best time. My main concern is the potential for crashing. Otherwise (at somewhere like Hungary) 2.6 would be very tempting.
Tsunoda’s group includes Ricciardo and the Alpines. He’s only one place ahead of Ocon but was two-tenths quicker. My concern with AlphaTauri, who appear to have a fundamentally fast car, is that they sometimes make very poor strategy decisions… on pace, 4.75 is actually very tasty.
Group 2 includes the Ferraris and Norris. Sainz is way back but otherwise it’s very tight indeed. Bit similar to Tsunoda but (unusually for Gasly) worse value because he’s behind Leclerc and there’s the same strategy worry.
The Verstappen fastest lap idea is based on Hamilton being over the hills and far away while Verstappen is in a strong second with space for a pit stop and fastest lap attempt. 3.25 is probably an accurate reflection of the chances given how tight the title race is.
The run to the first corner isn’t too long, which makes a lap one leapfrog tricky, but if Hamilton gets the first corner wrong then Verstappen could nab him (Bottas could also come into play). 8.2 is about right for odds.
So, the only thing that grabbed me (apart from the absent Ferrari not to be classified markets) were AlphaTauri bets that make me feel a bit uncertain due to both the crashing potential of everyone and the strategic errors the team has made. (I may join Bet365 so that there are more options on such things… but it’s a bit late in the day this season).
Not too delighted that such an obvious market is missing but
there we are. From those that remain I’m not especially taken with any of them.
On that basis, I’ve backed Tsunoda to win group 3 (Alpines and Ricciardo also in it). Unlike some other bets, this can be helped as well as hindered by DNFs.
Race start is 5.30pm UK time. Uncertain if there’ll be a
post-race ramble.
Morris Dancer
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