Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2021

Well, I’d thought Hamilton near certain for pole, but in the end he was out by quite a margin. Unexpected, and sets up the race nicely.

Q1 was mostly to form, with the Haas drivers propping up the timesheet. Raikkonen was also eliminated as were both Williams, although, unusually, Latifi outqualified his team mate.

Q2 saw a very aggravated Alonso as the fastest chap eliminated (he believed a McLaren got in his way, uncertain if this was the case or not). Gasly and Stroll were also out, as were Giovinazzi and Vettel. Perhaps of greater interest is that both Red Bulls initially set times on the mediums but were forced to the softs (Perez for pace, Verstappen because he had flat-spotted his medium set). So the Mercedes (and the impressively quick Tsunoda) are set to start the race on medium tyres, and the Red Bulls are on the softs.

At this stage, Hamilton seemed to have the edge. But then Red Bull implemented their cunning plan. They put out Perez just ahead of Verstappen to give him a slipstream on the long straight, with the Dutchman doing likewise for the Mexican when Perez had his hot lap. It worked very well. After the initial run, Verstappen was half a second ahead of Hamilton and a full second ahead of Bottas. (That said, Verstappen's slipstream-free second run was even faster).

Although Hamilton improved on his second run he was still over a third of a second behind Verstappen. Half a second down the road was another British chap by the name of Lando Norris, one-hundredth ahead of Perez on row two. The third row is Sainz and Bottas, putting the Mercedes number two even further back than his Red Bull counterpart. Leclerc and Tsunoda follow, with Ocon and Ricciardo last of the top 10.


Early betting thoughts:
Norris best of the rest
Ferrari double points finish
Alonso to beat Ocon


Norris starts two places ahead of the next ‘rest’ driver (Sainz), though the pace was very similar between the two. He’s only 2.6 to be best of the rest, which may be on the tight side. Sainz and Leclerc are both 3, so this may be a market to miss. 

Annoyingly, but fairly, Ferrari are joint equal with Mercedes and Red Bull to double score, at 1.33. Too short to tempt.

Alonso is 1.67 to beat Ocon. He starts two places further back but is very good wheel to wheel and may advance over the first lap. The Spaniard also has a free choice of tyre whereas I think Ocon starts on the soft, which should be an advantage for the older man. 1.67 is not fantastic. Of the bets so far this might be the most appealing, though.


And so, for the final time this year, I perused the markets to see if any value leapt out at me.
Giovinazzi, win group 3 at 5.5
Alonso beat Tsunoda, 1.91
Alpine, double points finish, 2.5
Hamilton and Verstappen to make contact, 2
Hamilton and Verstappen DNF by end of lap 1, at 26
Driver from third (Norris) to lead lap 1, at 13

Group 3 includes both Alfa Romeos and both Aston Martins, who were quite slow in qualifying. On the grid, Giovinazzi starts 14th, one place ahead of Vettel, and one place behind Stroll, with Raikkonen 18th. I think 5.5 may be value, and the Italian driver has performed very well towards the end of this year (bit unfortunate to be out of the sport next year, he’s moving to Formula E). It’s not a slam dunk, but worth considering.

Alonso starts 11th, three places behind Tsunoda. The Japanese driver does start on the medium, though Alonso’s free tyre choice is still a mild advantage. 1.91 might be too short, although I rate the Spaniard highly. Maybe worth a shot.

Alpine start 9th and 11th with Ocon ahead and on the soft tyre. They’re pretty close to being double points finishers, though 2.5 for both of them getting there, given how competitive the midfield is, might be a bit short.

Hamilton and Verstappen definitely made contact last race (and also at Monza. And Silverstone…). The counter-argument is that Hamilton needs to finish ahead of Verstappen, while the Dutchman is champion with a double DNF and he can afford to get his elbows out. In addition, there’s a chance (starting on the medium) Hamilton could get passed by a few at the start and the time on track close to Verstappen (who starts on the soft) might be surprisingly limited as they’ll be on differing pit stop strategies. Fun idea for a bet, though.

I really don’t think Verstappen and Hamilton will double DNF by the end of lap 1, but 26 is pretty long given they start 1-2. Might be worth it for a free bet.

Norris to lead lap 1 at 13 is actually quite tempting. He starts on the soft tyre, and Verstappen sometimes can be iffy at the start. He’ll also be 100% focused on Hamilton, who will be 100% focused on Verstappen. A good start plus slipstream might see him end up leading the race. However, checking my post-race rambles of past years it seems the sharp end is almost always formation flying, and even when a year or two Verstappen got passed at the start by Leclerc the pole-sitter, Hamilton, cruised off into the distance.

 

So, lots of maybes and nothing that leaps out at me. Not really tempted by any of them. The Norris bet, on the face of it, seems the best, though past performances indicate passing off the line here is surprisingly rare.

Given all that, I’ve decided to back Norris at 2.6 to be best of the rest. He’s an excellent driver and his car seems to have decent pace here. The Ferraris will either have a better car or not. If they do, then either chap could beat him. If they don’t, he should be able to stay in a strong position. Not only that, there’s a pretty strong record of the top three more or less holding station from start to flag.

 

The race starts at 1pm UK time. Hopefully I’ll have time (and internet) for a post-race ramble afterwards.

Morris Dancer

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