Turkey: pre-race 2021
Qualifying started off damp, but just about ok for slicks, and the ‘100%’ chance of rain didn’t see any beyond spots arrive. However, the session was still very interesting and the grid’s a little more shaken up than expected (given Hamilton’s 10 place and Sainz’s back-of-the-grid penalties).
Track limits being imposed harmed the Alfa Romeos, both of whom were dumped out in Q1. Mazepin likewise failed to progress, but Mick Schumacher did a great job to get his Haas into Q2. Latifi also exited at this stage but the shock departure was Ricciardo, put out by Sainz (doing a very good job for Ferrari given their tight battle with McLaren).
Sainz didn’t bother with Q2, which is fair enough, and he was joined on the departure list by Vettel, Ocon, Russell, and Schumacher. Russell had the pace to make Q3 but buggered up the last corner.
All session long the Mercedes had looked somewhat more comfortable than the Red Bull, and Perez seemed more competitive with his team mate than is often the case. This was mostly borne out by the ultimate results, with Hamilton fastest, a tenth ahead of Bottas. I do wonder if Hamilton might yet win this.
Verstappen was third, (so will join Bottas on the front row due to Hamilton’s 10 place penalty), less than a tenth ahead of Leclerc. The Ferrari’s been looking pretty tasty too. Gasly was just behind the Monegasque, and was closely followed by Alonso, with Perez another couple of tenths further back. Norris could only manage to qualify 8th (starting 7th) ahead of Stroll and Tsunoda.
Interesting grid. Sainz, Ricciardo, Hamilton all clearly out of position. Mercedes and Ferrari looking strong in their title and best-of-the-rest fights., Red Bull and McLaren a bit on the back foot. Alpine and AlphaTauri looking pretty good too.
The weather forecast is for it to be dry but overcast throughout. On the other hand, 100% chance of rain turned into a few spots in qualifying…
Early betting thoughts:
Hamilton, win/podium
Ferrari, double score
Sainz, points
The Mercedes looked better than the Red Bull and I do wonder
if Hamilton will slice his way through the field. The team are concerned about
traffic but a few things are in his favour, including way better pace than most
and the potential for tyres to be crumbly which mean more pace differences
based on that and which should make overtaking easier. Hamilton is 4 for the
win on Ladbrokes (NB the main race markets are erroneously marked for the 14th
at the time of writing so you’ll find them in the future section rather than under
the today category) and 4.8 on Betfair. An each way bet might be the optimal
strategy. For a podium, he's 1.57. I quite like the each way bet.
Ferrari are 1.85 to double score. And Sainz are 1.5 to
score. The car does look tasty but given the chance of being taken out or
suchlike short odds do not appeal to me.
Although I like the Hamilton win each way bet, it’s always worth browsing for value. Here’s what caught my eye:
Bottas, evens, beat Verstappen
Verstappen, lead lap 1, 3.65
These two bets are rather contrary, but both have some appeal. I think the Mercedes is fundamentally faster at this circuit than the Red Bull, so over the course of the race, with pit stop overtakes and the like, think Bottas has a decent chance of finishing ahead of Verstappen. However, the Dutchman might just be more aggressive at the start.
The Verstappen lead lap 1 bet is tempting, but I prefer Hamilton, each way, to win, so that’s what I’m tipping.
The race start is 1pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
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