USA: pre-race 2021

Qualifying did not go quite as anticipated, and it’s, in retrospect, a shame I didn’t go with temptation (this time).

In Q1 it wasn’t too surprising to see both Haas drivers, Latifi, and Raikkonen fail to progress, although Stroll not escaping is a bit disappointing (especially given Vettel as a back-of-the-grid penalty for an engine change and is team mate does not).

Despite some good work giving his team mate a tow, Alonso was unable to help Ocon get past Q2, the Alpine drivers 14 and 11th fastest respectively but Alonso also incurring a penalty sending him to the rear of the grid. Vettel, Giovinazzi, and Russell also exited at this stage, meaning five teams had both drivers in Q3.

The McLarens and Ferraris had looked competitive at the sharp end earlier, but would they be in Q3? No. But there was a surprising pole-sitter after the first hot laps in the form of Perez (15 in the betting), putting his illustrious team mate into 2nd, provisionally. However, after the second runs Hamilton was quickest before Verstappen was able to wrest the pole position away from his title rival, and Perez had to settle for 3rd, but he’s still been impressive throughout the weekend and may yet do well in the race.

Bottas would’ve been 4th but his penalty means he’ll start 9th, and his spot on the second row will be inherited by Leclerc. Sainz is right behind his Ferrari team mate, making it a rather tasty result for the Prancing Horse, with bother men ahead of their McLaren rivals. Ricciardo beat Norris by less than a tenth and the pair start right behind Sainz. Gasly and Tsunoda were the slowest chaps in Q3, but Gasly gets promoted one spot due to Bottas’ demotion.

In addition to Bottas’ 5 place penalty, there are back-of-the-grid penalties for Vettel, Alonso, and Russell. The weather is anticipated to be perhaps cloudier than qualifying with, at the time of writing, a very small chance of rain. However, we’ve seen forecasts been as much use as Mystic Meg after half a bottle of vodka before this season…

Note that most drivers are on medium tyres, (although Sainz is on softs), which is thought to be a substantial advantage.

Weather forecast is for it to be almost certainly dry and a similar temperature, albeit overcast, as qualifying.

Initial betting thoughts:

Hamilton lead lap 1
Perez win (each way)

Apparently, in 60% of the last 5 races the chap starting 2nd has led lap 1. Hamilton’s only 3 on Betfair to lead lap 1 as I write this (market hasn’t got going, presumably due to the stupidly late qualifying session), but 5’s there as a lay value.

Perez is 13 to win, with each way a third the odds for top 2. Given the chance for one of Hamilton/Verstappen to end up failing to survive a lap 1 tussle, and the Red Bull’s seemingly superior pace, and Perez being consistently quick this weekend, and Mercedes having concerns over engine reliability, this is surprisingly appealing.

Not many other markets up but I quite like the Perez bet so I’ve backed him, each way, to win at 14 (with boost). If you’re so inclined a hedge at 3 on Betfair for the win might be an idea, although worth noting that would require some manner of woe for Verstappen.

 

Reminder the race starts 8pm UK time. Not a fan of late starts, but they didn’t ask me… Unsure whether there’ll be a post-race analysis as, traditionally, I get some work done on Mondays.

Morris Dancer

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