Austria: pre-race 2021

I don’t offer qualifying bets often but did so on this occasion because I thought it was a better than 50/50 odds for a 50/50 chance, assuming Verstappen was all but guaranteed pole and the Mercedes would follow. Shame it didn’t come off, but the greatly surprising lineup was fantastic to see and may bode well for the race tomorrow.

Latifi, Schumacher, and Mazepin leaving in Q1 was not unexpected. Ocon also failed to progress and was far off Alonso, who ended up with the third fastest time. Raikkonen also left at this stage and was less than half a tenth off Ricciardo, who made it through.

Q2 had an unfortunate incident. Alonso was improving and had horrendous, lap-ruining traffic from Vettel, and didn’t get through. Vettel did, and though he apologised I think it nigh on certain the German will be encountering a penalty. Giovinazzi was the slowest man in this session, and Ricciardo remains significantly off the pace of Norris, who cruised through with ease (unlike his Aussie team mate). Slightly surprisingly, after runs on the medium initially, Ferrari stuck with that tyre and ended up out with Sainz 11^th and Leclerc 12^th. Disappointing for the Prancing Horse. Unlike Russell, who was rightly elated to get his Williams into Q3 entirely on merit.

We went into Q3 with Verstappen looking dominant. But in the end his pole was achieved by the narrowest of margins. Just half a tenth. Over the McLaren of Norris, who continues his staggeringly good run of form with a shock 2^nd on the grid. Better yet for Red Bull, Perez was 3^rd, and sits on the second row alongside Hamilton, the Mercs looking surprisingly slow compared to their rival team. And Norris.

Bottas and Gasly comprise row three, the Frenchman just half a tenth off the Finn’s team (like Norris, Gasly has been doing very well indeed this year). Tsunoda and Vettel are a provisional fourth row but with the probable penalty for the German this may well change. Russell capped off his great Saturday by beating Stroll to lead the fifth row.

At the moment, things look like they’ll be dry but rain isn’t impossible. On the penalties side of things, Vettel gets a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Alonso during qualifying (it seems he was passed on the out-lap and then multiple drivers slowed in a place they specifically weren’t meant to, so it seems rough on him and Alonso that they’re the ones to suffer setbacks).

Early thoughts:
Norris podium
Norris lead lap 1
Russell points
Sainz points

Norris is 2.75 for a podium. I have really mixed feelings about whether he can beat the Mercedes on pace. Or whether he’d even try (last time out he just let them past, I think).

He’s 4.9 to lead lap 1 (Betfair), which is pretty short. On the other hand, Verstappen now has to have his title head on, and the McLaren is pretty swift on the straights.

Russell for points has been almost the definition of a value loser when I’ve repeatedly backed it. Currently 1.73. If I do a bevy of small bets then this is on the table but for a single tip I’m not convinced after getting burned repeatedly.

Sainz is only 1.28 for points. Even bearing in mind he starts 10^th due to Vettel’s demotion that’s pretty rubbish as first lap shenanigans can easily take someone out (as Gasly found last time).

So, nothing too exciting. But do the other markets hold appealing delights?

Winning margin, over 11s, 2.2

Winning car without big 2, AlphaTauri, 4.75

Verstappen had a comically enormous victory margin last time out. If he wins again (and his odds are 1.4) I think this is value. The potential downside is if he pits for a fastest lap point but the risk/reward ratio makes it likelier that a 2^nd-placed chap rather than the leader would try that.

Gasly had great qualifying pace and Tsunoda was right behind him. Obviously Norris is favourite for this, starting on the front row, but if woe befalls the Briton then the AlphaTauri team might be the ones to benefit. Unfortunately, Leclerc ended Gasly’s race early last time so we don’t have much basis of pace info (I know the tyres are softer this weekend but it’d still be useful info).

So, nothing really grabbed me. Of the bets, the winning margin to exceed 11s at 2.2 seems the best to me. Could be undone by Verstappen going single while others go double to close up late on, but I’m expecting him to go over the hills and far away.

Race starts at 2pm UK, time.

Morris Dancer