UK: pre-race 2021

Finally, we have a grid. The sprint race had a few moments of interest but it remains like a hobbit’s daily meal arrangement: there’s too many. This is second breakfast. It’s unneeded and does not add to the entertainment because it feels hollow.

Anyway, almost everyone, as expected, started on the medium compound, notable exceptions being Bottas and the two Alpines (all on soft). Off the line Verstappen nailed it and passed Hamilton then did very well to hold onto the lead for the rest of lap 1 as the Briton was incredibly fast on the straight. Ultimately, that was job done. The Dutchman ended up with pole position and 3 points, with his title rival starting 2^nd and earning two points. Bottas retained his place and will start 3^rd, having earned himself an extra point.

Behind them Leclerc was miles ahead of the rest (and extending, gradually, the gap over the McLarens) while unable to close up to the Mercedes but he’s looking very well-placed.

Alonso got up to 5^th on lap one but the McLarens were eventually able to pass him (he was doing some naughty weaving). However, he did manage to keep a train behind him and ended up 7^th. As mentioned, the McLarens start 5^th and 6^th, Norris ahead.

Vettel was the first chap behind Alonso, followed closely by Russell, with Ocon rounding out the top 10.

Sainz starts 11^th but given he had contact with Russell that shoved him down the order (racing incident but the over-sensitive stewards are investigating it) that’s not bad, and he was undoubtedly aided by Alonso’s tactical shenanigans and defensive driving. Alongside the Spaniard is Gasly, with the seventh row formed by Raikkonen and Stroll. Next up we have Giovinazzi and Tsunoda, then Latifi and Schumacher, with Mazepin 19^th.

What of Perez? He was close behind Norris when the Briton sought to pass Alonso but loss of downforce saw the Mexican indulge in an off-track pirouette, via gravel trap, but do very well to keep his car out of the wall. However, it seems to have ruined his tyres, or other components, as he was unable to make any headway, and so the team (late on) retired the car tactically.

Stupidly, the stewards have given Russell a 3 place grid penalty for his racing incident (lap 1, I think) with Sainz. This recent trend of penalising drivers for having the temerity to race is pathetic. Russell is down to 12^th, Ocon, Sainz, and Gasly now ahead of him.

Early betting thoughts:
Sainz points
Perez points
Leclerc podium
Hamilton lead lap 1

My Sainz idea came before his promotion to start 10^th, but even so 1.33 is a bit too short given the potential for a racing incident. Perez at 1.33 perhaps likewise.

Leclerc at 3.75 (4.6 Betfair) for a podium is… tempting. He’s driven well at the circuit historically and looked the class of the midfield. Even when Norris got ahead of Alonso and he and Leclerc were circulating in effective No Man’s Land, Leclerc was slowly pulling away. With the potential tyre woe of those ahead of him, a podium is not impossible for someone outside the top two teams.

Hamilton is 3.9 (Betfair) to lead lap 1. There are two credible ways this can happen: off the line, and with a straight line speed pass that he came very close to completing in the sprint event. The Dutchman’s pretty handy at defending, but if the Briton gets close enough on a straight then it’ll be a done deal.

In accordance with the principles of Saint Irenaeus I think proceeded to check the markets for anything else that stood out as potential value.

Perez podium 6 (7.2, Betfair)

Perez starts from the pit lane but can have his car fiddled with, I believe, due to the tactical retirement. He’s also got one of the two class cars of the field, and is excellent at tyre management. There’s usually a pit stop sized gap from Hamilton and Verstappen to their team mates and a similarly enormous gap back to the midfield. With that, tyre blistering being a factor, and the heat potentially causing woe to Mercedes in particular it’s far from impossible (perhaps aided by a safety car) for the Mexican to end up on the podium.

So, a few potential bets that look ok but nothing stand out fantastic.

Overall, I think the Hamilton to lead lap 1 bet, at 4 (odds improved as I was writing this) is most appealing as it has two avenues of credibly coming off and we learnt from the sprint tosh that in a straight line he’s fast enough to be able to do it (he did fail to do so in the sprint event but got very close).

The race starts at 3pm. Due to the temperature and my study being a heat trap the post-race analysis may be up late, or not at all.

Morris Dancer