Portugal: pre-race 2020

And that’s why I don’t really bet on qualifying. Bottas ahead throughout practice and qualifying until the last moment when the talented but tediously predictable Hamilton got pole. Impressive, but not exciting.

Q3 was mostly as you’d expect with Latifi slowest and both Haas and Alfa Romeos departing. However, Russell did well to escape.

Q2 had a few interesting notes. Late on Ricciardo, having reached the top 10, went off the track and had a minor collision with a barrier. However, this necessitated a rear wing change and he was unable to participate in Q3. The Ferraris and Mercedes set their best times with the medium tyre which bodes well for them, except Vettel who ended up slowest and eliminated. Russell was also unable to progress but may feel pleased to qualify 14th, with Kvyat, Stroll, and Ocon ahead of him.

In Q1 it was Bottas fastest, then Verstappen, then Hamilton, until the Briton impressed and bored in equal measure by taking yet another pole. Leclerc qualified 4th, and that coupled with his medium tyre makes him look intriguing for the race. Perez drove tastily for 5th, with Albon only 6th. Sainz was five-thousandths ahead of Norris on the McLaren row four, with Gasly and Ricciardo finishing the top 10.


My early betting thoughts are:
Safety car
Low number of classified finishers
Leclerc podium/top 6

A safety car is 1.36. I dislike odds so short but it’s still somewhat tempting, not least given the track problems earlier (qualifying was delayed 30 minutes whilst the track chaps checked no more drainage components would go flying).

The only odds that look somewhat tempting on low finishers is under 15.5 at 2.25 but that’s still a bit shorter than I’d expected.

Leclerc is 5.5 for a podium (longer than Perez, unexpectedly), which is 5.75 with boost and looks like value to me. He’s very close to Verstappen’s qualifying time and starts on the medium tyre. Unusually, I’ve decided to use Betfair for this so I can hedge. The odds are marginally longer at the time of writing (5.9), some swallowed by commission, of course.  Set up the hedge at 2.5.

Weirdly, even at 7.16am (using the right time unlike when I got up at just after 5am…) the top 6 market remained greyed out so I couldn’t back the potential 1.91 on Leclerc there, which seems outstanding value if the price stays unchanged.

So there we are, a rare bet-and-hedge:
Backed Leclerc for a podium at 5.9, hedged at 2.5.

I think the race start is 1.10pm UK time.

Morris Dancer

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

Image
Bit of a whopper of an article, but it didn’t make sense to write two for the Bahrain tests, as they were so close together. Many of the rule changes are helpfully outlined here: http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/22058/9077826/gearing-up-for-2014-the-rule-changes-uncovered-and-explained-part-one This is one more reason why reliability is to critical. Losing a whole power unit (exceeding the 5 per season limit) means starting the next race from the pit lane. Losing a component, such as the turbo, means a 10 place grid penalty. On day one of the first test in Bahrain it appeared the Renault/Red Bull woe might continue. However, both Red Bull and Toro Rosso got in good running on the second day. Any remaining issues seem more to do with the car rather than the power unit. It’s been suggested the Renault requires significantly more cooling than rival engines, but apparently there are upsides. If the horsepower rumours were true (Mercedes being mighty and Ferrari better
Read more

Japan: early discussion

Image
As we enter the latter stages of the season we have multiple pairs of back-to-back races, hence this discussion starting a day after the Korean Grand Prix (which may be the last, incidentally. The circuit’s too isolated, surrounding developments haven’t been built and the organisers are annoyed by the high cost of staging the race which is the only use of the circuit all year). The Suzuka circuit is a proper one, with lots of elevation changes, a very fast flowing section (similar to Silverstone) and some very high speed corners. Sadly, I expect this will mean it’ll suit Red Bull. However, given their resurgence, it’s worth mentioning that last year Sauber had a strong result at Suzuka, when Kobayashi got third. Perhaps Hulkenberg will be able to get good points again (thanks to him Sauber are now tied on points but ahead of Toro Rosso in the Constructors’) and Gutierrez could nab his first point or two. Lotus benefited from some fortune with the safety car timing in Kore
Read more

America: pre-race

Image
Q1 saw the pointless teams ditched as usual, but there was a stark divergence between the Williams’ drivers. Bottas was 1st (in Q1 only), and Maldonado 18th. Turns out money can only buy seats, not speed. Surprising to see such a difference between the two drivers, though. Sutil went out in 17th, and may have suffered some sort of technical problem as he peeled off after his final lap. During Q2 it was confirmed Sutil had a problem, namely a slow puncture. Q2 saw the surprise departure of Rosberg. The Mercedes seemed to be the best of the rest, so that’s quite a shock. Not only that, he’s 14th, behind Ricciardo, Di Resta and Button (although Button suffers a 3 place grid penalty for ignoring red flags during practice). Massa is behind Rosberg, followed by Vergne. Impressively, Sauber got both of their cars into the top 10. Q3 was surprisingly close, but Vettel narrowly got pole ahead of Webber. Grosjean continues his strong form with 3rd, followed by Hulkenberg, who is
Read more