Germany: pre-race 2020

Ha, I felt like a banana for not backing Verstappen at 9 then he ended up slightly disappointing to start only 3^rd on the grid, having been in provisional pole position. Still sitting very pretty for the race, however.

Hulkenberg got thrown in at the deep end of qualifying and was, perhaps unsurprisingly, slowest of all. Hard to criticise him for this given the acute lack (ie none) of practice beforehand. Off chance of points in the race due to a combination of his experience and the car being pretty good, but odds against. Both Williams and Raikkonen failed to progress, as did Grosjean.

In Q2 Magnussen was the slowest of the eliminated drivers, with Giovinazzi faster than the Dane (and his Finnish team mate). Rumours of Mick Schumacher may be looming large in the Italian’s mind, but it’s driving him to go faster, if so. Both Gasly and Kvyat were likewise unable to advance and Vettel was fastest of those departing at this stage. The Ferrari is, however, looking a shade faster than it has been.

Q3 first runs were weird. Verstappen was fastest, narrowly ahead of Bottas and Hamilton. It was at this moment I felt a bit silly for opting not to back the 9 on him for pole. Second runs ensued which made me feel better, as Bottas nabbed pole and Hamilton got 2^nd. However, Verstappen’s right behind and I suspect the Dutchman might do well in the race. 

 Leclerc did well to drag his car into 4^th, and Albon may feel disappointed to be 5^th. Ricciardo and Ocon follow, a good showing for Renault ahead of their rivals McLaren. Speaking of which, Norris qualified 8^th and Sainz 10^th, with Perez the meat in a McLaren sandwich.

Apparently there’s a 30% chance of rain today, with no grid penalties at the time of checking.

Race bets that first spring to mind:
Verstappen, win
Hulkenberg, points
Norris, top 6

Verstappen was very impressive in qualifying and I think a slightly better second run could’ve seen him on the front row if not first. That, coupled with the low importance (relatively) of starting pole makes the 4.5 on him for the win quite tempting. On Betfair that’s out to 5.8, raising the question of whether an each way or back-and-hedge approach would be better, but either way this is appealing.

Hulkenberg is just 2.75 for points which is way too shirt. Yes, it’s entirely credible, but he starts last and has had just a handful of laps in the car at this circuit. The odds make this something that doesn’t tempt me at all.

Norris is 2.37 to be top 6. He starts 8^th with cars ahead that may fall back including Leclerc and the Renaults. However, I do expect the Renaults to be competitive and think these odds are too short for me.

As always, I perused the market to see if anything leapt out as value.

Unusually, nothing at all did.

Which brings me back to Verstappen and whether to back him each way at 4.5 (third the odds top 2, with boost lengthening the odds a little) or back-and-hedge at 5.8 on Betfair.

In the end I decided to back him each way. And that’s the only tip.

Incidentally, the F1 Twitter feed, which I was only checking for penalties and the like, throws up the start time as 1.10pm, an hour earlier than usual, so bear that in mind. 

Morris Dancer