Australia: pre-race 2019
Very mixed feelings.
Pleased the Bottas bet came off (albeit in a weak rather than strong
fashion) but annoyed with myself for not hedging at evens on an
exchange, something I seriously considered and decided against.
Nevertheless, a green start is nice.
The first part of
qualifying had a few notable moments. Sadly, Williams being
incredibly slow was one of them Russell was more than a second behind
the chap ahead of him, and, worse still, Kubica was a second and a
half off his newcomer team mate (that gap might’ve been narrowed
had the Pole not touched a wall and suffered a puncture on a later
lap). The track evolved rapidly which caught out two chaps who
should’ve been through. Gasly starts his first race for Red Bull in
17th, the cost of complacency from a top team. Sainz was
doubly unlucky, as track evolution meant his original time wasn’t
quick enough and he was behind Kubica on track for the later attempt
but the Pole’s misfortune compromised the Spaniard’s effort to
improve. Stroll was also eliminated from the first session.
At this stage it was
still unclear how the top teams really stacked up, but it soon became
apparent in Q2 that Mercedes were quite some way ahead of the
Prancing Horse. Further down the grid, it was a little surprising to
see both Renaults eliminated, Hulkenberg a full eight-thousandths
ahead of the very talented Ricciardo (great for the team to have such
a strong pairing this year). Both Toro Rossos also failed to
progress, as did Giovinazzi, but the margins were very tight, all
five covered by just over two-tenths, and Hulkenberg missing out on
progression by three-hundredths.
As well as the
Mercedes, Ferraris, and Verstappen, the final part of qualifying
included a promising youngster by the name of Kimi Raikkonen,
McLaren’s new chap Lando Norris, Perez (now of Racing Point), and
the two Haas fellows.
After the first flying
lap I was quite pleased and yet already regretting not hedging my
Bottas bet. He was nearly half a second ahead of Hamilton due to a
combination of Finnish skill and British error. The Ferraris were
nearly a second adrift. (Verstappen didn’t set an early time, just
going out the once, later in the session). For the second run, Bottas
got himself stuck behind a McLaren. Hamilton put in a fantastic lap
to go a tenth faster, and the Finn had no answer. Nor did the
Ferraris, and their bad day took an even worse turn when Verstappen
managed to split the, lining up 4th, after Vettel and
ahead of Leclerc.
The best of the rest
was Grosjean, a couple of tenths ahead of Magnussen. Lovely start for
Haas. Let’s hope the wheels don’t fall off in the race. Norris
was next, ahead of Raikkonen by a hundredth, with Perez a few tenths
further back.
Right now it looks like
Mercedes are in a great position, Ferrari have some work to do, and
the midfield could be, again, hyper-competitive this year. I’m a
bit surprised both Renaults were eliminated. Passing in Australia is
difficult, but they may benefit from picking their tyres rather than
being lumbered with their Q2 choice, as the top 10 are.
The Haas of Grosjean
was closer to Ferrari and Verstappen than the Ferraris and Verstappen
were to Mercedes. Which may be a bit worrying for them. Or great for
Haas.
My prediction for the
race is, not very heroically, a Hamilton victory. Intrigued to see
how Ferrari and Bottas do. I think Verstappen for the podium is well
worth considering, as the performance deficit from qualifying to race
pace should prove relatively helpful for Red Bull.
Early betting thoughts:
Verstappen podium
Renault double points
Haas double points
Verstappen is just 2.2
for a podium. Even allowing for a qualifying performance deficit (ie
relative advantage in the race) that feels a little short. There’s
an alternative bet, though, which I’ll cover below.
Renault and Haas are
2.37 and 1.5 respectively for a double points finish. Too short for
either to tempt me.
As is traditional, I
then perused the markets more broadly to see what leapt out at me.
There’s a Betting
Without Hamilton market, with a third the odds top 2 available each
way. Verstappen at 6.5 looks somewhat tempting. Assuming a Hamilton
win, this doubles as a podium bet with a nice outcome if he gets 2nd.
That said, it’s hard to pick between the two bets.
In the same market,
Bottas at 2.75 is also tempting, as a straight bet. Even with a
performance deficit to Red Bull, relative from qualifying to the
race, the Mercedes was so far ahead they should have the pace to win
at a canter.
There’s also No
Safety Car at 3. I remember with annoyance last year, when I made a
similar bet and it only emerged because Haas managed to send out a
second car with only three wheels attached.
No stand out value, to
be honest, just a few bets that are worth a look. If this were
qualifying I’d sit it out, but I do offer at least one tip every
race. Upon consideration, I decided to back Verstappen for the podium
at 2.2.
The questions are: will
he do it? Will Hamilton cruise to victory? Will I remember to wake up
in time? Only time will tell.
The race starts at the
irksome hour of 5.10am, UK time.
Morris Dancer
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