The 2018 F1 Season Review

Racing

There were some very good races indeed, and some absolute dogs. Season-long patterns were also interesting, as the initial Mercedes-Ferrari fight became a three way battle when Red Bull improved in the latter half of the season. The best of the rest contest was also intriguing (NB Renault would’ve narrowly beaten Force India even had the Pink Panthers kept their pre-takeover points tally), and the midfield was tightly competitive (excepting Williams, who languished at the back for pretty much the whole season).

I’ll look at how the driver pairings stacked up in intra-team battles in more detail in a separate post, probably as a precursor to looking at next year’s pairings. This review will focus more on title contenders, the fight for third, and the battle to be best of the rest.

Title Duel

At the start of the year, Hamilton seemed to have the Australian Grand Prix sewn up, only to lose it to a cunning Ferrari strategy call, bringing Vettel in for a relatively faster pit stop when a virtual safety car emerged.

Immediately after this Vettel notched a second win in two races, impressively keeping Bottas behind him in Bahrain. China had Hamilton a bit lacklustre but Vettel was hit by Verstappen, enabling the Briton to close the gap.

Azerbaijan, Spain, and Monaco saw Hamilton in the lead, with Vettel snatching it back (by 1 point) in Canada, losing it in France, regaining it in Austria (again by 1 point) and extending it in the UK (roughly the halfway mark).

It was looking very nicely set up. But the second half of the season was an entirely different matter. Vettel made a number of mistakes, most notably beaching his car in the gravel during wet running in Germany (he had been in the lead). Hamilton ended up winning, reclaiming a lead he was never again to lose.

Between early collisions (Italy, the US), and some dubious strategy calls, plus a near flawless performance by Hamilton in the latter half of the year (switching roles with Bottas, who was strong early on and faded later), the gap ended up looking rather enormous.

Could Vettel have done things differently? Undoubtedly, but mistakes are easy to make. Could the team have provided better strategy? Yes. But it’s worth remembering Hamilton in the second half of the season was driving better than he did in the first half. Perhaps people knock Vettel too much, and credit Hamilton too little.

Next year, Ferrari has a big decision to make. Mercedes will be backing Hamilton. Will Ferrari back Vettel, or will the centre of gravity shift towards the very talented, but also inexperienced, Leclerc?

The same question might be asked of Red Bull with Verstappen and Gasly.

Battle for Third

From the outset, this appeared to be a straight Finnish duel, with Red Bull too far back, and perhaps too unreliable, to trouble the Nordic contest. Verstappen’s early driving was aggressive beyond the bounds of sense, costing himself (and occasionally his team mate) points. In the first quarter or so, Ricciardo, despite early reliability problems, was right up there in the fight, though.

Later, reliability became so horrendous for the Aussie he really had no hope of getting the third spot. His driving has generally been very good, but it’s hard to score points when your car breaks down more than a third of the time.

Just as Ricciardo’s woe deepened, Verstappen’s temperament cooled. He still drove fast but, generally, with better judgement than before. Bottas and Raikkonen remained very tight on points, and were joined by Verstappen, whose second half performance was impressive.

It finished with just 4 points covering them all. Raikkonen won third, 2 points back was Verstappen, and 2 points behind him was Bottas. Worth noting Bottas had just a pair of DNFs, against twice that for the other two.

Best of the Rest

Quite some way behind the big three teams, the battle to be king of the midfield was rather tight. The development race and in-season drama (Force India’s financial difficulty and rescue, namely) played significant roles. A few teams racked up healthy points tallies early on, such as McLaren and Toro Rosso, only to fade significantly later. Sauber did it roughly in reverse, whilst Renault, Force India, and Haas scored throughout the season.

Of the drivers, Hulkenberg was the most consistent, despite many DNFs (seven). He scored points throughout the year, and managed to finish atop the midfield pile. Perez was 7 points off the German, but had only a pair of DNFs. Weirdly, the Force India started terribly, with just 1 point scored in the first three races, before kicking into gear.

Magnussen had a pretty good year, a little up-and-down. He often scored highly but then went a few races pointless, and suffered only two DNFs. He ended up on 56 points.

Sainz, Hulkenberg’s team mate, got 53 in the end, but had just two DNFs to Hulkenberg’s seven. I rate Sainz, but it’s clear that his team mate had the better year.

Last, but not least, Alonso ended up with 50 points. McLaren actually had a pretty good start to the year, with regular double points finishes. But their development was horrendous. In the first half of the year, Alonso reached 40 points, at that stage just 2 behind Hulkenberg. The Spaniard added just 10 more in the second half, ending up 19 adrift of Hulkenberg and also behind Perez, Magnussen, and Sainz.

Alonso’s said adios but McLaren remain. If they ever want to return to the sharp end they need to shape up their development during the course of a season. Force India tend to do an exemplary job on that, with a (relatively) small budget. Stand still in F1 and you’ll be last before long.

How much was it down to the drivers, and how much to the teams? Well, McLaren were right there with Renault early on, after which the black-and-yellow team soared away. Haas got close but couldn’t reach Renault. Force India were fast throughout and would’ve finished just behind Renault (and ahead of Haas and McLaren instead of behind) had they kept their earlier points.

And Williams, sadly, had a line so flat it resembles a heart monitor attached to a corpse.

Betting

Very much a season of two halves for me. The start was utterly horrendous. At the time, I blamed this on really bad luck, something I’ll examine in more detail later. It wasn’t until the sixth race I finished ahead, and in the first half I had only two green races, and both of them were small.

In the latter half, I had a couple of good races and lots of so-so ones (usually small reds) and finished almost flat, with the smallest of green shoots.

My much mentioned Bottas to finish top three tip did not come off. Raikkonen, who got it in the end, at one point early in the season was 61 for the win, effectively 12 for top three. This was entirely down to Bottas’ poor performance. He did have some misfortune, but both the chaps who finished immediately ahead of him had four DNFs to his two. And, over the course of the season, he had the best car.

So, did I really have a bucketload of bad luck, or was I just judging things badly? [NB I’m not including annoyingly close examples, where I back a pole-winner and he’s 0.04s off].

Australia: I backed two red bets. Raikkonen to have the fastest lap, and No Safety Car. The safety car did emerge but only after the second Haas pit stop failure. I think that’s a clear case of bad luck. The Raikkonen bet also failed but harder to say if it would’ve come off (closing the field up decreased the potential). Taking the safety car bet as the only difference, that meant I ended up minus 2 stakes, instead of plus 1.9 [net].

Bahrain: I backed Ricciardo to be winner without Ferrari. He was the only driver to suffer a reliability retirement. Had it come off, that would’ve swung from minus one stake to plus 2.9. The retirement was very early on making it difficult to say whether he would’ve got it or not.

Azerbaijan: backed Perez to be top two (win each way) at 326. He was 3^rd. Can’t complain too much but I was pissed off at the time. Important to remember this for next year. A combination of street ability and a solid engine plus potentially high attrition rate makes this sort of bet on a midfield team, even if miles slower than the top group, potential value. Podium bets also worth considering.

France: backed Bottas to win each way at 6, he was hit by Vettel and had to pit after the lap one incident. Hard to say, given that, whether it would’ve come off, but the collision prevented any chance of it happening.

Austria: backed Sainz for points at 1.5. He had a terrible start, then heavy blistering, and his extra stop was very slow (he was running 8^th when it happened then slumped out of the points).

Considering just the Australia and Bahrain situations, that would’ve changed things from minus eight stakes, in the first half, to minus one. Obviously if Perez had come second or won in Azerbaijan it would’ve been greener than Kermit the frog.

I did have some early atrocious luck but I think the reason it jarred so much was that I had a lot of near misses and no corresponding good luck for a long time. I had a bet on Ricciardo making up three places, and he made up two, backed someone for pole and they were 0.04s off, etc.

Anyway, sometimes seasons are good and sometimes bad. There’s not much you can do against luck in F1, and it does swing both ways, as proven by the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix.

Stay tuned to enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk, as I’ve plans for posts about new 2019 driver lineups, how the titles might go, and several other things to help make the long inter-season gap seem a little smaller. My intention is to put new blogs up every Saturday throughout December.

Morris Dancer