Russia: pre-race – 2016
My record of predicting
things that very nearly but don’t quite happen remains intact, as
Button was 12th by a tenth of a second. Glad the odds
weren’t there now.
In Q1 it was no
surprise to lose the Saubers and Manors, although Ericsson being last
must be slightly alarming for the Swiss team. The Renaults, who
remain woeful this year [but may bounce back fairly well next] also
exited the stage here.
In Q2 Haas were the
slowest to depart, the team continuing their terrible Chinese form
after a great first two races to the season. Bit perplexing, to be
honest. Both McLarens failed to reach Q3, though Button came close,
and Hulkenberg and Sainz also failed to progress.
Hamilton suffered yet
more bad luck. One can only imagine he killed a witch’s black cat
with a mirror then made his escape under a ladder repair shop. His
engine failed to work, meaning he starts 10th (unless
there’s a penalty).
As you might expect,
this made Q3 as climatic as an ascetic’s meditation chamber.
Rosberg strolled to pole, Vettel seven-tenths behind him (the Ferrari
starts in 7th, of course, due to a five place grid penalty
for changing a gearbox). Bottas was next, surprisingly a tenth up on
Raikkonen. Massa and Ricciardo complete row three, then come Perez,
Kvyat and Verstappen.
I said in my
pre-qualifying piece that the Sochi circuit is one where it’s hard
to pass, so I expect changes from grid to flag to be relatively
small. The major potential exception, of course, is Hamilton.
In addition, there’s
very low wear on the tyres, so expect little tyre management and just
one pit stop per driver.
Without checking any
odds, bets that sprung to mind were:
Hamilton podium
Bottas podium
Lay Rosberg lead lap 1
Williams top score
Hamilton is a 1.57 for
a podium. Now, his car is substantially faster than the others.
However, it’s tricky to overtake in Sochi, he won’t make strategy
gains (because everyone will one stop), and at times the barriers are
very close, so getting caught up in an accident is possible (as is
more bad luck).
Bottas is 3 for a
podium, which is a bit shorter than I expected.
Oddly, there’s no
Betfair market for the lap 1 leader. The Ladbrokes market has (from
Rosberg to Bottas to Raikkonen) 1.36, 5, 8. Raikkonen might be worth
a look, likewise Bottas (Rosberg, if he doesn’t get away well, will
play it safely. He has no need for heroics).
Williams are 11 to top
score. Now, this is a deserved long odds shot. There are three teams
likely to be in with plausible victories here. Rosberg I expected to
cruise to victory. If Bottas is second then Massa needs 7 points more
than Hamilton for this to come off. There’s also Ferrari to
consider (but Vettel also has potential reliability issues). Ferrari
are 4.5. Hmm.
Perusing the markets
reminded me that Raikkonen and Vettel are 6 and 6.5 not to be
classified. Tempting. But then, when I gave in to temptation last
time they had their first double finish of the year, the swine.
Perez is 3 to finish
top 6. He starts 6th (Vettel’s right behind him). He
also got a podium here last year, I think, when Bottas and Raikkonen
collided.
After the (undeserved)
confidence last time, I’ve returned to normal and have no idea what
to bet on. Things that I’m still considering are:
Bottas, podium, 3
Raikkonen/Bottas, lead
lap 1, 5/8
Williams, top score, 11
Perez, top 6, 3
The first one I’ll
reconsider is the top score for Williams bet. They start 2nd
and 4th. That’s 30 points, if they hold station (I think
they’d be able to keep ahead of a Ferrari but not pass one).
Rosberg starts 1st and is highly likely to win, although
he may start badly. If he wins, that’s 25 points. So, if the top 4
hold station then Hamilton must finish 8th or lower (or
not finish) for the bet to come off. And that’s assuming Raikkonen
and Vettel don’t make monster starts. Must admit, I lack confidence
in Williams to get things right.
I think Rosberg’s
been passed twice at starts (could be wrong). That makes the first
lap leader bet quite tempting.
Bottas for a podium is
credible. But the odds are a bit short, and Williams seems to have
had a history of going backwards more than forwards.
Perez for top 6 is a
bit tricky. He’s got Vettel immediately behind him and Hamilton a
few places further back. I rate Perez and he’s driven well around
the Sochi circuit in the past, but I’m not sure his car’s up to
the job.
So, by a process of
being less confident in everything else, here’s my one tip (split
equally between two options):
Bottas, lead lap 1, 5
Raikkonen, lead lap 1,
8
Wish I had something a
bit better, but there we are.
Whilst not a fan of the
circuit, it must be said every race so far this year has been pretty
entertaining, so let’s hope the trend continues.
Morris Dancer
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