China: pre-qualifying 2016
The poison dwarves have
retreated. Todt and Ecclestone have buckled, the team principals have
won, and the qualifying format returns to the sanity of the 2015
approach. Huzzah!
Alonso has fractured
ribs, but that won’t stop him racing. He has been told, however,
that if his situation worsens he has to stop immediately.
Hamilton has another
sort of pain, taking a five place grid penalty due to a gearbox
change. If he makes another bad start from there, it may not be as
terrible because the super long straight should play into the
Mercedes’ hands.
Rain is a possibility
for both the third practice session and qualifying. Could be light,
could be heavy. The race is likely to be dry.
Because of early start
times, the pre-qualifying piece is up today.
Both Friday practice
sessions were entirely dry.
In P1, Rosberg was top,
a tenth up on his team mate, with Vettel half a second down the road
and Ricciardo half a second off the German. Raikkonen, Kvyat and
Sainz were next, with Button, Hulkenberg and Verstappen rounding out
the top 10.
The second practice
session had Raikkonen fastest, a tenth ahead of Vettel. Rosberg was a
tenth back, with Hamilton two-tenths off his team mate. Ricciardo,
Verstappen, Hulkenberg, Sainz, Perez and Bottas completed the top 10.
So, when betting on
qualifying we need to consider how cars will perform in the wet and
the dry. Cars with better aerodynamics will have superior (relative)
grip in the wet.
So, I anticipate the
Red Bulls getting a relative performance boost, and Williams (and
maybe Force India, as well as Manor) going backwards in the wet.
McLaren may benefit from wet conditions.
Alonso and Button were
11th and 12th in P2, and 8th and
12th in P1, so a McLaren making P3 is not impossible,
although I’d want tasty odds.
As for pole, I think
the Mercedes probably still has the edge. Rosberg has been
consistently faster than Hamilton (although the same was true last
weekend and Hamilton snatched pole by a tiny margin).
Sainz or Verstappen for
Q3 is another bet worth contemplating, if the odds are right.
Rosberg’s odds for
pole are just 2.6. Given the potential for rain and the fact he
couldn’t get it in Bahrain, a strong track for the German, I am not
tempted.
Button and Alonso had
Q3 odds of just 2.34, which is bloody tight. I’d want 4 or so, at
least.
Sainz and Verstappen at
1.33 is likewise too damned short.
So, no bet on
qualifying.
Of course, if you
simply want to relax with a book that’s funnier than a mongoose
wearing a fez, then buy my excellent new comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric.
Or, if you prefer the
fear factor, enjoy The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel horror anthology,
in which I have a short story.
[NB both are under my
pen name Thaddeus White].
Morris Dancer
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