Spain: pre-race
Glad I didn’t bet on
qualifying, as it went somewhat differently to my expectations.
In Q1 we had the
familiar sight of both Marussias exiting, and Force India will be
disappointed to lose both drivers at this stage. Marcus Ericsson
qualified 16th.
Q2 was rather more
competitive, as might be expected. Nasr was the slowest [bit of a bad
circuit for Sauber, it seems], with the two McLarens ahead of him,
and the two Lotuses ahead of Alonso (very two-by-two). However, there
was a pretty large margin between Grosjean and 10th place.
In the final part of
qualifying, Rosberg beat Hamilton to pole by a quarter of a second.
Impressive stuff from the German. Vettel was 3rd and
Bottas 4th, followed by Sainz and Verstappen, with
Raikkonen only 7th. Kvyat, Massa and Ricciardo round out
the grid.
Poor from Raikkonen and
Massa, it seems (both well down on their team mates). Good for
Rosberg, and if the Ferrari’s got the race pace this could see the
title get a bit more competitive. Or Hamilton might win again.
Pole-sitters have an 80% record in recent years of getting the win.
There’s a very long
(longest on the calendar) run from the grid to the first corner. This
may hamper the Red Bulls, with Ricciardo often starting badly. It’ll
also be interesting to see if the Lotuses or McLarens can get into
the points. Renault reliability is another factor to consider.
Early bets I thought of
included:
Alonso points
Vettel win each way
Toro Rosso double score
Lotus double score
Williams double score
Massa top 6
Bottas podium
Alonso’s a great
driver, and the McLaren’s improved again. There’s also the
potential for Renault-engined cars ahead to expire, or be rubbish off
the line and gift him a few places. He’s 2.3 for points. I’m
uncertain about that.
Vettel is 11 to win,
1/3 the odds each way (Ladbrokes). Ferrari have been pretty smart
strategically, and strategy will matter a lot in Spain.
Toro Rosso are 2.1 to
double score. I think the cars have the pace and the drivers are
good, but I have my doubts about the engines.
Lotus are 4 to double
score. I rather like that. They should’ve double scored in Bahrain
but Maldonado had a slow stop and then got hit by Button.
Williams are 1.4 to
double score. Too low [likely to happen, but still].
Massa is evens for a
top 6 finish. That looks reasonably good, but I think the top four on
the grid will get into the top 6, and Raikkonen probably likewise.
The Toro Rossos could stand in his way.
Bottas is 3.25 for a
podium. I’d probably want a little longer, given his car would
appear to be a margin behind the Ferraris and Mercedes.
Almost all the above
are marginal. Somewhat tempting, but definitely not clear cut.
On balance, I think
Lotus to have both cars in the points at 4 is the best bet. They
should’ve done it in Bahrain (it was misfortune they did not). Cars
ahead may well be slower, have bad starts or have their engines blow
up.
So, just the on tip:
Lotus to double score at 4, with Ladbrokes.
Morris Dancer
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