Spain: pre-qualifying
It’s been three weeks
since the last race, and teams will’ve been doing all they can to
upgrade their cars (with the possible exception of Force India, who
have a B-spec car coming sometime during the European leg of the
season, perhaps after Austria). McLaren will be desperate to keep
making up ground, although that’s largely an engine issue, and
Ferrari/Mercedes will both want to have the fastest car on the grid.
Tyre compounds are hard
and medium.
Worth mentioning
Spain’s circuit is tricky to overtake on, and generally not very
exciting. So, much passing will be in the pit stops due to strategy.
That said, a Mercedes behind almost any other car (barring Ferrari
and Williams) will probably have a shot of muscling its way through,
especially if Hamilton’s driving. Starting position and strategy
will be at a premium.
In P1 Rosberg was
seven-hundredths ahead of Hamilton, who was almost a second ahead of
Vettel (himself barely three-hundredths faster than Raikkonen).
Three-tenths further back was Sainz, then we had Verstappen, Kvyat,
Massa, Ricciardo and Nasr.
P2 was rather
different, with Hamilton four-tenths up on Vettel, who was the same
margin ahead of Rosberg. Raikkonen was a tenth down the road, and
followed by Kvyat, Verstappen, Button, Bottas, Sainz, and Massa.
At this stage, it looks
pretty good for Toro Rosso. Button being top 10 is a little
surprising.
In P3 commentary it
emerged that the Honda engine was able to use more power than
previously, which obviously helps. How much remains to be seen.
Pirelli tweeted a two
stop race is expected. The option tyre is about 1.6s faster than the
prime, apparently. Also worth recalling there’s the longest run to
turn 1 of any circuit, so the start has plenty of scope to lose or
gain places. Red Bull have suffered more engine reliability problems,
which may hamper them in the race as well.
P3’s results were a
bit unexpected. Rosberg was fastest, a tenth up on Vettel, who was a
tenth up on Hamilton. Bottas was a little further back. Then we had
Raikkonen [whose car had a wrong setting], Ricciardo, Massa,
Verstappen, Kvyat and Sainz.
Hamilton screwed up his
final sector, which is where the Mercedes has the advantage over the
Ferrari. I still expect him to get pole.
Bets that sprung to
mind were:
Alonso/Button for Q3
Verstappen Q3
Kvyat Q3
Hamilton pole
Vettel top 3
Alonso’s odds for Q3
were just 2.1, Button likewise. It’s possible but those odds are
too short.
Verstappen was 1.5, and
Kvyat 1.35. Given possible McLaren resurgence and Renault issues,
even less tempting than the above.
Hamilton’s just 1.54
for pole. I think him likeliest to get it, but he cocked up his
simulation and Rosberg’s been ahead of him in two out of three
practice sessions. Frankly, Rosberg at 3.35 may be the better bet.
None of the qualifying
odds tempt me, so no tip.
The pre-race piece may
go up after the BBC highlights, so it could appear in the evening
rather than afternoon (and that gives more time for the markets to
get going).
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment