Singapore: pre-qualifying 2019

I was sorely tempted to back Bottas, early on, at 7.5 each way (fifth the odds top three) for both qualifying and practice but the chance of rain put me off. A few years ago when it rained the track’s drainage system was shown to be severely lacking, so if it’s wet this year expect it to stay that way for a long time and the DNFs to rack up.

In off-track news, the mutual loathing society of Magnussen and Grosjean was confirmed at Haas for next year. That makes Hulkenberg’s presence in the 2020 season doubtful. Another departure is Kubica from Williams. A great shame, but the Pole, who had title-contending prowess before his crash, simply wasn’t quick enough.

In first practice Verstappen was fastest, a tenth and a half ahead of Vettel. Hamilton was about half a second off, with Bottas a similar margin off his team mate. Albon, Hulkenberg, Sainz, Norris, Kvyat, and Gasly completed the top 10.

Second practice saw Hamilton top, a tenth and a half ahead of Verstappen. Vettel was over half a second further back (this gap and those in the earlier session so suggest sandbaggery galore), with Bottas a bit further back. Albon and Leclerc closely followed, as did Sainz, Hulkenberg, Norris, and Gasly. The battle to reach Q3 looks like it’ll be very tight indeed.

Right now the focus is on Verstappen and Hamilton for pole, but I do wonder if there’s going to be value (weather forecast permitting) with Bottas and/or Leclerc/Vettel.

At this stage the odds on Bottas lengthened to 9.5 (10 with boost) for qualifying, still top 3, so I backed it, and tipped it on PB. Also put tiny sums at 1301 on Sainz for the win/qualifying, Hulkenberg for qualifying (these three bets in case it rained), and Bottas for the win at 12 (not a ‘full’ bet just in case it ended up double red). It seems rain is unlikely, however.

In the latter half of third practice Perez collided with the wall, bringing out a VSC and then red flags to clear the debris. Got to say I was surprised Leclerc topped this session, two-tenths ahead of Hamilton and six-tenths up on Vettel. Bottas was within a tenth of the German, and about half a second ahead of Albon and Verstappen. Sainz, Norris, Hulkenberg, and Ricciardo rounded out the top 10.

Given Leclerc’s unexpectedly good performance and Hamilton, and probably Verstappen, still being in the fight I’m a bit wary to tip in this blog. But the odds might be tasty, so I went to see what was there.

On Betfair, Leclerc’s 5.4. Hamilton is under evens. Verstappen is 4. None of that tempts me, to be honest. Ladbrokes has Hamilton a shade over evens, Verstappen 3.25, and Leclerc 4.

Value might be had (at the time of writing each way is fifth the odds top three, but this might change to a third the odds top two, which is less appealing) with the team mates. Vettel’s 10, Bottas is 10, and Albon is 19. Of these, I think Bottas has the most appeal, but given Leclerc’s turn of speed it looks less tempting than earlier in the day.

No tip for qualifying, which could be rather exciting.

Quick note on timing. Qualifying starts at the usual UK time of 2pm but I believe the race is an hour earlier than usual, at 1.10pm.

Morris Dancer