Italy: pre-race 2019


Mixed feelings about a farcical qualifying. My judgement was sound and the bet came off but only on the each way aspect. It could’ve easily been fully green, or failed, so a bit ’twixt and ’tween. Still, not bad.

Q1 was more or less as one might expect, with the Williams the slowest. Perez lost another engine and failed to proceed (which is quite understandable).

In Q2, Hamilton was the fastest, which made me a bit hopeful for my bet (the Q1 times were rather more Ferrari-tastic). Renault looked tasty in both sessions and both drivers advanced into the final part of qualifying. In the elimination zone for Q2 were: Giovinazzi (two-thousandths behind his team mate), Magnussen, Kvyat, Norris, and Gasly.

And so to Q3. After the first runs, Leclerc was a few hundredths ahead of Hamilton, who was a few thousandths ahead of Bottas. Vettel, who had the misfortune to be first and not benefit from even the whisper of a slipstream, was next, a tenth and a half behind his team mate. Raikkonen smashed into a barrier outside the parabolica, and the red flag emerged.

Then we were treated to one of the most clownish spectacles I can recall in Formula 1. A comedy for the ages. A farce par excellence.

As usual, they all waited until the end and tripped over one another. To the extent that only Sainz and Leclerc reached the line in time. Everyone else couldn’t improve (and Leclerc had pole anyway). Albon and Stroll didn’t set times at all. Vettel was denied any opportunity to improve. Pretty bloody ridiculous.

Penalties: Verstappen, Norris, and Gasly start at the back due to changing many engine parts. Perez also goes to the back due to his engine failing, and Raikkonen has a 5 place grid penalty for a new gearbox.

Weather: at the time of writing that’s a roughly 50/50 chance of rain each hour of the race. It will likely have some impact, although if it comes, showers are expected rather than a full-blown downpour.

Early betting thoughts:
Hamilton to win
Safety car
Ricciardo top 6

Hamilton was further off, by far, Leclerc in qualifying at Spa but on race pace was clearly the faster. Starting higher up the grid and with a smaller performance deficit (possibly, it could be the Mercedes used its best mode this time), the Briton stands a good chance of spoiling the Prancing Horse’s party. However, he’s 2.2 to win, which is a bit short.

Gravel traps, close barriers, high speeds, and the potential for rain mean that a safety car is a very credible possibility. And only 1.5.

Renault have been rather impressive in qualifying and Ricciardo’s looking good. With Verstappen starting at the back and Albon behind him, it’s plausible he could retain a top 6 place. He’s only 2.37 to be top 6, which is perhaps a bit tight.

As always, I checked the markets to see if there was anything I liked. It was shortly before 7am so I was surprised there were no alternative match bets, groups, or #Getaprice markets, but otherwise everything seemed to be up. And so:
Vettel, win, each way 8
Bottas, win, each way 9
Renault, double points 1.72
Albon, win, each way 301

Vettel looked a bit off the pace but it’s worth remembering he was the only one of the top chaps not to have a slipstream so I think that’s exaggerated. Similarly, but even more so, Bottas was within half a tenth of Leclerc’s pace and came extremely close to beating Hamilton. The main problem with those two bets is that I can see either one coming off, so picking between them is tricky.

Renault were very strong in qualifying and start with the third row to themselves. If they both finish I think they have a strong chance of double scoring.

Albon starts 8th due to the qualifying shambles. On pace, he looks very similar, in qualifying, to Vettel/Bottas. Red Bull should benefit from being relatively faster in the race due to an inferior qualifying mode. Very much odds against, but I do wonder if the odds are nevertheless too long. At Spain 2016, Verstappen was 251 in a Toro Rosso, and fell to 51 in a Red Bull. Verstappen’s odds, starting from the back, are 41 in today’s race. This does require a slice of luck (and a very big one at that), but the odds do feel too long to me.

Hmm.

I’ve decided to back Bottas, each way at 9 (9.5 with boost), for the win. Third the odds top 2. Things are tighter than in Spa, when the Mercedes closed up significantly on the Ferrari from qualifying to race (and was, indeed, faster in the race).

If you’ve got a spare pound, might be worth putting it on Albon, just in case. 301 (376 with boost) for the win, each way, could be a shade excessive.

Morris Dancer

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