Italy: pre-race 2019
Mixed
feelings about a farcical qualifying. My judgement was sound and the
bet came off but only on the each way aspect. It could’ve easily
been fully green, or failed, so a bit ’twixt and ’tween. Still,
not bad.
Q1
was more or less as one might expect, with the Williams the slowest.
Perez lost another engine and failed to proceed (which is quite
understandable).
In
Q2, Hamilton was the fastest, which made me a bit hopeful for my bet
(the Q1 times were rather more Ferrari-tastic). Renault looked tasty
in both sessions and both drivers advanced into the final part of
qualifying. In the elimination zone for Q2 were: Giovinazzi
(two-thousandths behind his team mate), Magnussen, Kvyat, Norris, and
Gasly.
And
so to Q3. After the first runs, Leclerc was a few hundredths ahead of
Hamilton, who was a few thousandths ahead of Bottas. Vettel, who had
the misfortune to be first and not benefit from even the whisper of a
slipstream, was next, a tenth and a half behind his team mate.
Raikkonen smashed into a barrier outside the parabolica, and the red
flag emerged.
Then
we were treated to one of the most clownish spectacles I can recall
in Formula 1. A comedy for the ages. A farce par excellence.
As
usual, they all waited until the end and tripped over one another. To
the extent that only Sainz and Leclerc reached the line in time.
Everyone else couldn’t improve (and Leclerc had pole anyway). Albon
and Stroll didn’t set times at all. Vettel was denied any
opportunity to improve. Pretty bloody ridiculous.
Penalties:
Verstappen, Norris, and Gasly start at the back due to changing many
engine parts. Perez also goes to the back due to his engine failing,
and Raikkonen has a 5 place grid penalty for a new gearbox.
Weather:
at the time of writing that’s a roughly 50/50 chance of rain each
hour of the race. It will likely have some impact, although if it
comes, showers are expected rather than a full-blown downpour.
Early
betting thoughts:
Hamilton
to win
Safety
car
Ricciardo
top 6
Hamilton
was further off, by far, Leclerc in qualifying at Spa but on race
pace was clearly the faster. Starting higher up the grid and with a
smaller performance deficit (possibly, it could be the Mercedes used
its best mode this time), the Briton stands a good chance of spoiling
the Prancing Horse’s party. However, he’s 2.2 to win, which is a
bit short.
Gravel
traps, close barriers, high speeds, and the potential for rain mean
that a safety car is a very credible possibility. And only 1.5.
Renault
have been rather impressive in qualifying and Ricciardo’s looking
good. With Verstappen starting at the back and Albon behind him, it’s
plausible he could retain a top 6 place. He’s only 2.37 to be top
6, which is perhaps a bit tight.
As
always, I checked the markets to see if there was anything I liked.
It was shortly before 7am so I was surprised there were no
alternative match bets, groups, or #Getaprice markets, but otherwise
everything seemed to be up. And so:
Vettel,
win, each way 8
Bottas,
win, each way 9
Renault,
double points 1.72
Albon,
win, each way 301
Vettel
looked a bit off the pace but it’s worth remembering he was the
only one of the top chaps not to have a slipstream so I think that’s
exaggerated. Similarly, but even more so, Bottas was within half a
tenth of Leclerc’s pace and came extremely close to beating
Hamilton. The main problem with those two bets is that I can see
either one coming off, so picking between them is tricky.
Renault
were very strong in qualifying and start with the third row to
themselves. If they both finish I think they have a strong chance of
double scoring.
Albon
starts 8th due to the qualifying shambles. On pace, he
looks very similar, in qualifying, to Vettel/Bottas. Red Bull should
benefit from being relatively faster in the race due to an inferior
qualifying mode. Very much odds against, but I do wonder if the odds
are nevertheless too long. At Spain 2016, Verstappen was 251 in a
Toro Rosso, and fell to 51 in a Red Bull. Verstappen’s odds,
starting from the back, are 41 in today’s race. This does require a
slice of luck (and a very big one at that), but the odds do feel too
long to me.
Hmm.
I’ve
decided to back Bottas, each way at 9 (9.5 with boost), for the win.
Third the odds top 2. Things are tighter than in Spa, when the
Mercedes closed up significantly on the Ferrari from qualifying to
race (and was, indeed, faster in the race).
If
you’ve got a spare pound, might be worth putting it on Albon, just
in case. 301 (376 with boost) for the win, each way, could be a shade
excessive.
Morris Dancer
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