Monaco: pre-race 2019

I wonder if Ferrari’s strategy team are secretly Mercedes’ fans. It would explain their inexplicably bad decision-making in qualifying. Leclerc looked pissed off, and rightly so (one might argue the driver could’ve demanded to go out again, but he’s still pretty new).

The first session of qualifying was notable for Giovinazzi impeding Hulkenberg (as I type this, they’re off to the stewards), the Williams and Racing Point cars all being eliminated, and the ineffable cock-up that saw Leclerc go out. No crash. No reliability failure. No AT-ATs assaulting the Ferrari garage. He was just a bit slow initially and the team didn’t bother to send him out. They sent out Vettel who, ironically, ended up being the one to push his team mate into the elimination zone. Utterly daft. Particularly on a circuit where cars pass with all the ease of a kidney stone.

In Q2, things were very tight. Both Alfa Romeos, having looked tasty in practice, were eliminated, as were Hulkenberg, Norris, and Grosjean. The Frenchman’s departure was ill-tempered, and understandably so, as he was blocked on a hot lap by Gasly. I’d be unsurprised if Gasly (and Giovinazzi, from Q1) end up with penalties. Not that that’s much consolation for Grosjean.

The tussle for pole was a three horse race, though none were prancing. Bottas looked to have a small edge over Hamilton, with Verstappen a further tenth back. On the final run, Hamilton managed to improve and the others did not, so the Briton starts on pole. Very hard even to pass off the line here, though most races this season have seen the chap who started on pole fail to lead lap 1, so Bottas will have his eye on Hamilton.

Vettel starts 4^th, just ahead of Gasly (assuming there’s no penalty for the Frenchman). Magnussen was best of the rest, and starts alongside Gasly.

The fourth row is Ricciardo and Kvyat, with Sainz and Albon comprising the fifth. Strong performance from Toro Rosso in qualifying.

I full expect the race, which is forecast to be dry, to be the usual tedious procession. Mr. Sandpit opined, and I agree, that the new race director is likely to be a safety first kind of chap so the odds on a safety car will be even shorter than usual. Finding value may be difficult indeed.

Giovinazzi received a 3 place grid penalty for impeding Hulkenberg, pushing the Frenchman down to 18^th. Gasly likewise gets a three place penalty, for impeding Grosjean, dropping him to 8^th.

My initial betting thoughts were:

Ricciardo top 6

Leclerc points

Riccardo is only 1.83 for top 6 [note: this fell from 2.2 pre-penalty for Gasly]. Given he starts 6^th but his car has a terrible reliability record, it’s very easy to crash, and an unlucky safety car or pit stop will ruin his race with no hope of recovery, this is not remotely tempting.

Leclerc is 1.44 for a points finish. Again, with the potential for crashing etc *and* the fact he starts about 15^th, that’s not tempting.

The markets were, again, slow to get going, so the perusal of extra stuff had to wait until Sunday morning. Here’s what caught my eye:

Bottas, win, each way 5 (third the odds top 2)

Leclerc, not to be classified, 6

On pace, the Mercedes seem the best but Verstappen’s close enough to be a fly in the ointment. Each way is green if Bottas is 1^st or 2^nd. But there’s a credible chance of a pesky Dutchman getting ahead of him (I don’t think it’d happen off the line but there’s a pit problem. Mercedes will have two cars next to each other on track whereas Red Bull, with Gasly being five places behind Verstappen, can pick and choose the best time to pit for both chaps without worrying about them being too close and holding one car up).

Leclerc’s got the second longest odds on not being classified, but he starts at the back end of the midfield and the Ferrari’s shown an unhealthy tendency towards brake-locking. Against that, they all might be just trundling around pointlessly.

Nothing whatsoever leaps out at me. If I hadn’t offered a tip at every race since mid-2009 (might’ve missed the odd one due to technical problems) I’d probably just grab a good book and watch, ahem, the race.

Casting my mind back to last year, when the drivers almost made me crack a rib laughing when they complained about the race being boring (they normally extol it), everything was ultra-slow to keep the tyres going in case a safety car forced a change. However, this also led to the field being far more bunched up than usual because the top chaps didn’t pull away from the midfield, which also meant they couldn’t pit normally because they’d come out in traffic and potentially ruin their races (because Monaco, like all good tracks, is somewhere that makes passing almost impossible…). Checked last year’s results against the grid, and there were small changes (some due to DNFs elsewhere), such as Vettel and Hamilton swapping places from lights to flag.

Mercedes are 1.4 for a double podium finish. And Hulkenberg is 1.83 for points (1.85 with boost). I think those are both reasonable. The former requires holding station, the latter Hulkenberg to gain one place (he starts 11^th which also means he’ll have fresher tyres than those immediately ahead of him). Last year he started 11^th and finished 8^th.

On reflection, I think that’s about as good as it’s going to get, so I’ve backed Hulkenberg to get points at 1.85.

Let’s hope the race is more exciting than last year.

Morris Dancer