Spain: pre-qualifying 2019


Ricciardo gets a three place grid penalty for his reversing into Kvyat last time out.

There are also lots of new bits and pieces, with new engines for the Ferraris and Ricciardo. The Renault update, however, seems to be more about reliability than speed.

My early thoughts are to keep an eye on the odds on Verstappen, Perez, and Sainz/McLaren. The circuit is one where overtaking is difficult, so cunning strategy/safety car luck can be worth a lot.

In first practice Bottas was fastest, a tenth ahead of Vettel, himself just a tenth in front of Leclerc. Hamilton was six-tenths off his team mate, with Grosjean a third of a second further back. Sainz, Magnussen, Gasly, Kvyat, and Hulkenberg rounded out the top 10. Verstappen was down in twelfth, with fewer laps and none on the fastest tyres. Stroll had a bit of a crash.

Verstappen had an oil leak in first practice, so Red Bull have brought forward an engine change for him.

Second practice had Bottas fastest, just under half a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Tasty. Leclerc was a few tenths further back, also less than a tenth ahead of his title-winning team mate. Verstappen was a few more tents off, ahead of Grosjean, Gasly, Magnussen, Sainz, and Kvyat.

At this stage I was quite interested to see Bottas’ odds for pole. However, when they finally went up (before third practice) the odds were a measly 2.5. Alas.

Hamilton topped third practice, half a second ahead of the tightly clustered trio of Leclerc, Bottas, and Vettel. Interesting to note that Haas (who I don’t think have new engines but do have other upgrades) had Grosjean just two-hundredths off Vettel. Scarlet sandbagging? Magnussen and Verstappen came next, then Albon, Raikkonen and Sainz.

Russell had a crash at the end of third practice, so we’ll see if he makes it out for qualifying.

Mr. Sandpit suggested backing the Ferraris for pole at about 6 each. My initial response was that Hamilton’s huge gap made him overwhelming favourite, but the Haas/Ferrari closeness smells of sandbags, so there may be value after all.

I wasn’t especially minded to bet given how things stand, but checked the odds anyway just in case something seemed wonky.

Hamilton was 1.53 for fastest qualifier, Bottas 2.9. The Ferrari odds were 8.5 on Vettel and 9 on Leclerc. I didn’t back any of those.

The 34 (36 with boost) on Verstappen to win each way looked the tastiest, to be honest, although it’s only a third the odds top 2, which does make it a little less attractive.

So, no tip for qualifying.

Not sure if the pre-race ramble will be up this afternoon/evening or tomorrow.

Morris Dancer

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