Spain: pre-qualifying 2019
Ricciardo gets a three
place grid penalty for his reversing into Kvyat last time out.
There are also lots of
new bits and pieces, with new engines for the Ferraris and Ricciardo.
The Renault update, however, seems to be more about reliability than
speed.
My early thoughts are
to keep an eye on the odds on Verstappen, Perez, and Sainz/McLaren.
The circuit is one where overtaking is difficult, so cunning
strategy/safety car luck can be worth a lot.
In first practice
Bottas was fastest, a tenth ahead of Vettel, himself just a tenth in
front of Leclerc. Hamilton was six-tenths off his team mate, with
Grosjean a third of a second further back. Sainz, Magnussen, Gasly,
Kvyat, and Hulkenberg rounded out the top 10. Verstappen was down in
twelfth, with fewer laps and none on the fastest tyres. Stroll had a
bit of a crash.
Verstappen had an oil
leak in first practice, so Red Bull have brought forward an engine
change for him.
Second practice had
Bottas fastest, just under half a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Tasty.
Leclerc was a few tenths further back, also less than a tenth ahead
of his title-winning team mate. Verstappen was a few more tents off,
ahead of Grosjean, Gasly, Magnussen, Sainz, and Kvyat.
At this stage I was
quite interested to see Bottas’ odds for pole. However, when they
finally went up (before third practice) the odds were a measly 2.5.
Alas.
Hamilton topped third
practice, half a second ahead of the tightly clustered trio of
Leclerc, Bottas, and Vettel. Interesting to note that Haas (who I
don’t think have new engines but do have other upgrades) had Grosjean just two-hundredths off
Vettel. Scarlet sandbagging? Magnussen and Verstappen came next, then
Albon, Raikkonen and Sainz.
Russell had a crash at
the end of third practice, so we’ll see if he makes it out for
qualifying.
Mr. Sandpit suggested
backing the Ferraris for pole at about 6 each. My initial response
was that Hamilton’s huge gap made him overwhelming favourite, but
the Haas/Ferrari closeness smells of sandbags, so there may be value
after all.
I
wasn’t especially minded to bet given how things stand, but checked
the odds anyway just in case something seemed wonky.
Hamilton
was 1.53 for fastest qualifier, Bottas 2.9. The Ferrari odds were 8.5
on Vettel and 9 on Leclerc. I didn’t back any of those.
The
34 (36 with boost) on Verstappen to win each way looked the tastiest,
to be honest, although it’s only a third the odds top 2, which does
make it a little less attractive.
So,
no tip for qualifying.
Not
sure if the pre-race ramble will be up this afternoon/evening or tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
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