Australia: pre-race 2018

After qualifying, I must admit I’m rather relieved that my decision not to back Verstappen for pole didn’t end up looking rather daft. Things were far more competitive at the sharp end from all three teams (ok, Hamilton’s ultimate lap wiped them out, but still). On the other hand, I am looking somewhat silly for not tipping Raikkonen to be top 3 in practice, so the karmic balance is maintained.

As it turned out, third practice was wet and qualifying was dry. I thought that meant Red Bull would be a distant third. But that shows what I know.

In the first part of qualifying it was pretty much business as usual. Toro Rosso, now powered by Honda, were top and bottom of the leaving group, Hartley 16^th and Gasly 20^th. Between them were both Saubers (Ericsson outperforming highly rated débutante Leclerc) and Sirotkin just 19^th.

The midfield was looking intensely competitive, with Haas, Renault and McLaren appearing to be in close contention. As things panned out, both Renaults and both Haas drivers got through to Q3 and neither McLaren escaped. But Alonso sounded happy, pointing out every team (other than McLaren and Toro Rosso) were optimised for their engines already, expressing the gains to made in this way as free time. Lance Stroll qualified 14^th, but more surprising was that both Force Indias failed to progress. Perez was 13^th and Ocon 15^th. After years of being around the fourth or fifth best team, that’s looking pretty lacklustre. Given how close the sharp end now is, this could signify the end of a significant engine benefit as Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault are separated by a smaller margin than before.

As expected, Q3 featured all the drivers from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull (joined by Haas and Renault’s chaps, as mentioned above). Almost immediately, Bottas had a massive crash, destroying his prospects of a good grid slot and possibly buggering his gearbox into the bargain. This brought out the red flag, although sufficient time remained for everyone to have the usual two runs for pole.

This was significant, as things were ultra-close after the first run. Hamilton led, but within a tenth of him were Vettel and Verstappen. Even in the dry, in qualifying (where the engine modes available give Mercedes and Ferrari a competitive advantage) the Red Bull was looking quick.

The second run had a sting in the tail. Hamilton somehow (probably a swanky engine mode) pulled out an incredible lap, crushing the field by seven-tenths. Given how close things had been to that point, it was an astonishingly fast effort. Raikkonen was 2^nd, one-hundredth ahead of Vettel. Verstappen had to settle for 4^th, 41-thousandths behind Vettel. The three chaps immediately behind Hamilton are covered by a hair over half a tenth.

Ricciardo was three-tenths back, and has a three place grid penalty for insufficiently slowing during red flags in practice. Magnussen (a second behind the Red Bull) outqualified Grosjean, but Ricciardo’s penalty means they’ll start 5^th and 6^th (I hope I’m wrong, but Magnussen there makes me wonder if a safety car might appear after all...). Hulkenberg beat Sainz by less than half a tenth but will start two places ahead due to the Ricciardo penalty.

Close gaps up and down the grid, then. The race ahead is looking tasty, though overtaking’s tough, and the season itself seems intriguingly poised. Got to say I think Red Bull are in fantastic shape. Even with Renault emphasising engine reliability over performance, they were very close in qualifying, which recently has been their weakness. Red Bull has the best driver pairing of the top dogs, and historically develops well over a season.

Haas are really doing well, Renault will be happy with their drivers, and McLaren have a solid foundation to build on, as well as a significant improvement over the last few years of woe.

Force India, however, must be feeling pretty down in the mouth. Only the first qualifying, but half the grid’s ahead of them.

The current forecast for the race is a small chance of light rain showers towards the end. I wouldn’t bank on wet weather.

Bottas did indeed get a five place grid penalty for changing his gearbox, and will start 15^th. As someone remarked to me on Twitter, he may very well not be a Mercedes driver next year (also possible changes at Ferrari and Red Bull).

Based on all that, my initial betting thoughts [bearing in mind I’ve already offered three tips this weekend, two for the race] were:

Verstappen, podium

Renault, double points

Ricciardo, top 6

Lay Perez, points

Verstappen is just 1.66 for a podium. Whilst I think it likely, those odds are not great.

Renault are 1.83 for a double points finish. More or less right, I think.

Ricciardo is 1.4 to be top 6. Tempting, as the top three teams are in another league, but just too short.

No odds available to lay Perez for points. I do rate the Mexican driver but his car seems to lack performance, and I think the hangover of Force India’s recent strength might lead some to overestimate his chances.

As is traditional, I then perused the markets to see if anything leapt out at me. Some things that caught my eye were:

Ricciardo, win each way, 26 (third the odds top 2)

Verstappen, lead lap 1, 17

Vettel and Verstappen, dual forecast, 17

Ricciardo starts 8^th, and, like Verstappen, will start on the supersoft tyre (the middle compound this weekend). This may enable him to go further and gain a competitive advantage over his rivals. Bottas is further back, and the Ferraris are next to one another, suggesting one may have to lose out in pit stop strategy. The Red Bull is significantly faster than the Renault and two Haas ahead of Ricciardo. It’s a long shot, but not impossible, particularly as I have a suspicion the Red Bull may be the fastest car this weekend (I wish the top score market was still up on Ladbrokes but they seem to have removed it permanently).

The Verstappen to lead lap 1 bet is based on the Ferraris potentially tripping over one another, and the Dutchman being very talented but also occasionally reckless.

Verstappen starts ahead of Ricciardo and I think the Red Bull will have great race pace. The supersoft may also offer some pit stop gains. As for Vettel, Ferrari may well engineer a pit stop pass over Raikkonen, if it be needed. Of course, this requires Hamilton to fall behind, but that’s why the odds are long.

Although there’s some reason to all of the above bets, I’m disinclined to back them.

There is some Sainz weirdness in the markets two. In the head-to-head with Hulkenberg (who starts two places ahead of him), Hulkenberg is 2.5 to win. In the Haas and Renaults group (group B) on Ladbrokes, Sainz starts last but is the favourite. Am I missing something, or is that peculiar?

As an aside, Raikkonen’s odds on fastest lap (without boost) have weirdly lengthened from 13 to 15. That despite him coming 2^nd in qualifying.

No further tips to add to those of yesterday (namely, Raikkonen for the fastest lap at 13 [15 with boost] and no safety car at 3.75 [3.9 with boost]).

I’m also content with the Red Bull title bet at 6.2. I think they’re in a pretty strong position in that regard. Currently available at 4, and probably still value there.

Qualifying was delightfully close (until the final lap) and I’m hoping the race will be similarly competitive. All I need to do is remember to wake up in time. Don’t forget the clocks change and the race starts at 6.10am.

Morris Dancer