After Testing, Thoughts for the 2018 Season
The first test was
notable for bad weather (which is not one of Spain’s usual traits).
Cooler temperatures reduced early running and then a whole day was
lost to the Beast from the East. Correspondingly, teams ran a lot
more on a wet and cool final day than they otherwise might have, but
this did at least give them a chance to play with full wets and
inters (slicks coming on later).
What did we learn from
the first test? Not much. But, engine reliability was generally good
and breakdowns relatively few. Vettel suggested Mercedes were still
fastest but that it would be very close between them.
The second test had
better weather and more running from everyone. Red flags did appear,
but this is to be expected. It might alarm McLaren fans that they had
relatively many breakdowns. Toro Rosso did likewise, but this is
testing so it’s not surprising. Did we learn much? No. Pace is very
very hard to judge by testing times (for example, Mercedes didn’t
take any hypersofts at all). If pace were to be judged, then Ferrari
and Red Bull looked quick, but we won’t find out until the first
race.
Right now my view is
that reliability is generally good. McLaren and Toro Rosso had the
most break downs but it wasn’t a horrendous number, and I don’t
expect either to be as bad as McLaren was last season.
Mood music consensus is
that Mercedes may well be fastest again but that Red Bull and Ferrari
may be very close behind. The battle for 4th could be very
tasty, with Force India, McLaren and Renault all in with a shot.
Haas is a weird one.
They’re getting lots of parts, the legal maximum, from Ferrari.
This isn’t especially new for them, but at times they looked really
quick (though testing times are notoriously of little value, so maybe
they just emptied the fuel tank). Their performance has always been a
bit hit and miss, and judging their prospects is tricky.
Williams may be a shade
embarrassed that Kubica looked, if anything, faster than Sirotkin and
Stroll. Key to their hopes is improved aerodynamic performance,
without which best of the midfield will be the height of their
realistic ambitions.
Sauber I’m expecting
to improve significantly. Intrigued to see how Leclerc performs. I
still think they’ll be towards the bottom end in performance terms
but with a diminished gap enabling them to nibble at points more
often, and benefit more in races with high attrition rates.
I brilliantly misread
the third test, which is in-season, at the same circuit as the
pre-season tests but in May, so there were only the two pre-season
tests, not the three I was expecting.
The surface of the
Barcelona track has been relaid, and is smoother and grippier this
year. There’s also less degradation, so teams might be caught out
on other tracks the first time particular compounds are used.
Incidentally, the
Williams and Sauber look very alike, especially head-on. The most
obvious difference is the darkness of the Williams rear wing and
lightness of the Sauber, otherwise I’m expecting commentator
confusion galore.
The first track is
Australia, a street circuit. This shouldn’t be the ideal (or the
worst) type of circuit for Mercedes. If they dominate the weekend,
that may by the Constructors’ title done and dusted. However, if
others are close/better, we could be in for a competitive season.
Also worth noting
drivers have their own preferences. Hulkenberg is good at
free-flowing circuits like Interlagos but I’d expect Sainz to best
him in Australia, for example.
Weather permitting, I’m
anticipating good reliability. There weren’t a huge number of red
flags over the two pre-season tests, although there’s always the
chance of a start line pile-up or driver error later on.
At this stage, I think
the Bottas bet might come off but I suspect McLaren are going to be
battling with the midfield rather than having a title tilt.
I did check the markets
(titles up, races not, spreads not) just to see what was there. As
expected, Bottas’ odds have tightened, Alonso’s lengthened.
Intrigued that Raikkonen is 34 for the title (Ladbrokes, 41 with
boost). I’m tempted each way (fifth the odds for top three). If the
Renault/Red Bull is a bit unreliable that’s plausible, although I
do think Mercedes will again have two cars in the top 3. Decided
against backing it, but it’s worth consideration.
My plan is to wait and
see if the spreads go up. If they do, I’ll put my thoughts on them
in a new article between now and the season’s start, possibly with
some other suggestions if race markets are up and running too.
Otherwise, I’ll adopt
my usual three articles per weekend approach, covering
pre-qualifying, pre-race, and post-race analysis. I have propitiated
the Greek gods Tyche and Nike, and Saint Cajetan, so hopefully the
title race will be both competitive and profitable.
Morris Dancer
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