Italy: post-race analysis 2017
The weekend bet just
about came off, making it the first green weekend since Spain, which
was quite some time ago. My general prediction about this being great
for Mercedes (both team and engine) was correct. The early bets were
only one for three, down just under two stakes. But you can’t have
everything. I also had a small sum, not tipped but mentioned early
elsewhere, on both Force India to double top 6 (didn’t happen) and
all Mercedes-powered cars to score, which did. Only had a little on,
but it was 11 (and I’m a bit miffed I didn’t specifically tip it,
but there we are).
Off the line Ocon made
up a place on Stroll, but Hamilton retained the lead. The biggest
gainer was Verstappen who had leapt up to 8th or so by the
end of the first lap. However, the Dutchman then got a puncture and
had to pit very early. Later this required a second stop, ruling out
his participation at the sharp end.
Bottas picked off
Stroll and then Ocon, and from then on the Mercedes cruised around
Monza, lazily increasing their lead until the end.
Ocon and Stroll were
subsequently passed by the Ferraris and a rather racy Ricciardo,
settling in at the lower end of the points, just ahead of Massa and
Perez. The white and pink cars were very evenly matched, circulating
in a convoy that became very tasty (and tense, if you had money on
them) on the final lap. But all managed to finish without terminal
drama.
Verstappen, given he
had a very slow lap on a puncture to pit and an extra stop, did well
to carve his way through the field and claim the final point. He
might also be relieved to have actually finished a race.
No such relief for
Alonso, who was greatly aggrieved at Palmer going off-road and
staying ahead of him. The Briton got a 5s time penalty, which the
Spaniard described as ‘a joke’, but subsequently had to retire.
In less justified bitching, Magnussen whined persistently that
Verstappen had forced him off track. Nothing of the sort happened.
Magnussen was clearly behind and needlessly left the circuit, then
blamed Verstappen over the radio with all the melodrama of Rivaldo
clutching his face at the 2002 World Cup. Increasingly unimpressed
with Magnussen’s attitude.
Ericsson and Vandoorne,
who had Honda’s newest power unit, also retired. Apparently, an
announcement on whether McLaren will stick with Honda or switch
(probably to Renault) is likely on Monday or Tuesday.
A perfect day for
Hamilton, getting the win with his team mate 2nd. Vettel
grabbed the final podium spot but his pace was nowhere near Mercedes’
today, and he loses the title lead for the first time this year (he
trails by 3 points). Ricciardo was 4th, and Raikkonen 5th.
Ocon was 6th and Perez 9th for a good Force
India result, and after some weak races Williams must be happy Stroll
was 7th and Massa 8th. As mentioned above,
Verstappen was 10th, .
I did predict this
would be a great circuit for Mercedes. A little surprised how good
the Red Bull was, though. For Singapore, the next race a fortnight
away, Ricciardo and Verstappen might fancy the win.
Anyway, here are the
driver standings:
Hamilton 238
Vettel 235
Bottas 197
Realistically, Bottas
needs both great performances and both title rivals to drop a race to
have a credible shot. He’s pretty much out of it now. The three
points is a minuscule gap, and I expect Vettel to retake the lead in
Singapore. If Mercedes, in a dry race, can beat the Ferrari without
luck playing a role then Vettel’s got little chance of contesting
the title.
Teams:
Mercedes 435
Ferrari 373
Red Bull 212
Force India 113
Williams 55
Toro Rosso 40
Haas 35
Renault 34
McLaren 11
Sauber 5
Williams pulled away
from their many rivals for 5th, but Singapore could be a
good opportunity for Toro Rosso, Haas and Renault to score. McLaren
must be even more hopeful, as the slow speeds minimise the impact of
their power deficit whilst playing to the strengths of a good
chassis.
From a title
perspective, I expect Ferrari to beat Mercedes in Singapore. The big
question is how fast will Red Bull be. They were damned tasty today
and may fancy their chances of upsetting the Prancing Horse. If that
happens, it’ll aid Mercedes a lot, but if Red Bull are between a
winning Vettel and Hamilton, that’ll only widen the points
advantage for Ferrari. Of course, I could be wrong, but that’s how
I see things playing out at this stage.
Morris Dancer
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