Japan: pre-race

Bit frustrating in qualifying. Sainz was 8^th at the end of the first run in Q2, but ended up 12^th, after suffering a bad set of tyres (not just an excuse, the vibration was so extreme it was visible externally). Would he have made Q3, given he didn’t improve and all those around him did? Hard to say. He would have had a shot, and the tyres prevented that. The upside is that my ‘brave’ bet, whilst wrong, did appear to have some basis in reality.

Q1 ended early with a yellow flag for Verstappen when his car ran out of electricity. Both Manors left at this stage, as did both Saubers and Button. Verstappen did make it to Q2 but was not able to run and therefore qualified 15^th (pending potential penalties).

In Q2, Sainz was initially sitting pretty in 8^th, with the Force Indias and Lotuses off the pace (Alonso also being slow, as one would expect). However, all save Sainz improved at the end, which meant he was only 12^th, immediately behind Hulkenberg, who takes a 3 place grid penalty for the Massa collision in Singapore (the German, upon seeing a replay, has conceded it was his fault). Maldonado is right behind Sainz.

Q3 saw the return to normality, with the Mercedes a mile and a half ahead of the other cars. Rosberg got pole by less than a tenth (oddly, Hamilton’s never gotten pole in Japan). A little surprisingly, Bottas was best of the rest, ahead of Vettel. Massa and Raikkonen share the third row, with Ricciardo and Grosjean next. Kvyat made a mistake and had a massive crash which rolled his car over and destroyed half of it, but he was ok. However, that did mean he was last. Perez didn’t set a lap time (due to the ensuing red flag), but qualified 9^th.

The race may be wet or dry, and tyres are medium and hard, same as Spain (where Rosberg got pole and victory). Two stops is expected to be the norm, though Ricciardo’s hoping he might be able to get away with one (it’s thermal issues rather than wear which is the problem).

There’s a pit lane start for Kvyat, as he needs a new gearbox, engine and chassis.

Race start is 2-4pm local time. BBC was muttering about rain but the forecast I’ve seen suggests it’ll be dry.

Initial betting thoughts:

Safety Car

Maldonado not to be classified

Verstappen points [decided against after he got 3 grid penalty for parking his car on-track]

Perez points (good on tyre wear and solid top speed)

Force India double score

Bottas podium

Ricciardo top 6

I think there’s a decent chance of a safety car, but 1.4 is far too short. Race should be dry, although the lack of run-off increases the chances of a safety car.

Maldonado is evens not to be classified. That might be value, given his record, but he was classified last time.

Although I’ve ruled it out following his penalty, Verstappen was barely evens for points. Given he’ll start 18^th or so, that’s not tempting (especially as the Renault-powered cars will find it easy to get stuck behind the others, which are better on the straights).

Perez was just 1.66 for points. He has a decent chance, but that doesn’t appeal to me.

A double points finish for Force India is 3.5. I believe Hulkenberg starts 13^th (3 place grid penalty, but Kvyat ahead of him has a pit lane start). Perez starts 9^th. That may be worth considering.

Bottas is 2.37 for a podium. Sometimes Mercedes have dodgy starts, which would help the Williams. The car is probably best of the rest, but there is only one podium spot up for grabs and Vettel will be after it.

Ricciardo is 1.6 for a top 6 finish. Too short to appeal.

So, of those Force India to double score at 3.5 and Bottas for a podium at 2.37 seem most interesting, though neither grabs me hugely (worth noting the 4.5 I decided against tipping on Rosberg to win each way [top 2] is now just 2.2. So, mistake on my part not to back that).

I therefore quickly perused Betfair and Ladbrokes to see if anything leapt out at me.

Bottas to be winner without the big three was evens on Betfair. That’s quite tempting. And it’s out to 2.78. That’s the one, I think.

Tip:

Bottas to be winner without the Big 3 at 2.78 (Betfair)

I think the race starts at 6am, rather than the expected 5am. Should be fairly dull at the sharp end, but could be a good fight behind the Mercedes.

Morris Dancer