Qatar: pre-race 2024

With the exception of Russell being pretty quick, qualifying went in a way I did not expect.

In Q1, both Williams got knocked out, as did Lawson. Ocon was slowest but as his Alpine is running old parts that is explicable. More surprising was Hulkenberg’s departure, given he finished 7th in the sprint, and Perez easily making it through (a rarity these days). Turns out the German had an electrical power problem, preventing him attempting multiple fast laps.

Another weird thing was that Q2 had both Saubers in it. Zhou Guanyu qualified 12th, one place ahead of Bottas. I’m rather perplexed. Gasly was the fastest eliminated man, with Tsunoda and Stroll the slowest.

And so to Q3. Verstappen had turned up to qualifying with unexpected pace and the battle for pole was a tussle between him and Russell. In the end, the Dutchman won. Row two is McLaren land, Norris ahead of Piastri, while row three has future team mates Leclerc and Hamilton. Sainz and Alonso make the fourth row Spanish territory, while Perez and Magnussen complete the top 10.

The sprint is normally a good guide to pace. I did not expect Verstappen to do nearly so well. If the Ferrari is better on its tyres, as some say, they could yet spring a surprise in the race.

 

Penalty for Verstappen: he’s got an unusual 1 place grid penalty for being slow ahead of Russell but not impeding a hot lap. Odd. Very odd. But it swaps around the two drivers at the front.


Early Betting Thoughts

Leclerc, podium
Hulkenberg, points
Russell, win
Verstappen, win

Leclerc had solid pace in the sprint and even set some very good lap times despite lacking DRS and having some turbulent air from the chaps ahead of him. In a longer race with perhaps two pit stops, perhaps one, this might play to the Ferrari’s advantage. Currently he’s 3.5 for a podium.

Hulkenberg was impressive in the sprint qualifying and race only to get the timing wrong (it seems) for the real qualifying and getting knocked out in Q1. Could he climb from 18th to 10th? Perhaps, he does have speed, but it’s a tall order. He’s 2.75 to achieve this.

I did have ideas of backing Russell or Verstappen before they switched places on the grid. The Briton’s 2.5 and Verstappen’s 3.5. The Dutchman may well offer better value… but it’s hard to say. In the sprint his pace was lacking and after tumbling down to 9th he only made up a single place in 19 laps. However, Verstappen’s qualifying time was way better and he looks very much in the hunt, though I’m wary of him still finding passing hard and getting stuck in traffic come the pit stops. Russell’s looked quick all weekend and got very close to Piastri numerous times, the Aussie surviving largely due to DRS. But a bad start could prove difficult to recover from.


And so, I browsed the markets, hoping value would leap out at me. Here’s what I saw:

Leclerc beat Hamilton, 1.61

Very straightforward, he starts one place higher and the car seems better. Short odds and potential for Hamilton’s race pace to be better than his qualifying (as in Las Vegas) do make this rather less appealing.


Williams, 1-2 cars not classified, 3.5
Colapinto beat Albon, 4

Williams have had atrocious form, with DNFs at each of the last three races and four of the last five. Things are looking better this weekend, to be fair, and grip is way better than at Brazil or Las Vegas. There’s also 4 on Colapinto to beat Albon, which can happen by default if Albon has a DNF or other woe. However, I think the 3.5 on one or both DNFing is the better value.


While the grid is intriguingly poised for the race it does make trying to work out just what the hell will happen extremely difficult.

In the end I’ve gone for a Leclerc podium at 3.5 (boosted 3.6). He’s an impressive driver, and his car’s got not just competitive pace but, potentially, is better on its tyres.

Race start is 4pm.

Morris Dancer