Brazil: pre-race 2024

I didn’t watch the sprint race but did catch up via the YouTube channel F1 Gamer, which has a nice neutral approach plus live driver tracker. If I can’t (or don’t want to) catch a session live this is how I usually follow along.

The sprint was interesting, with Hamilton falling back and Perez progressing through the field (including getting reacquainted with his new best friend Lawson). Based on the performance, I expect Verstappen and Piastri to be fastest in the race (perhaps not in that order), then Norris, followed by Leclerc with Sainz last of the top five. On pace, the McLarens and Verstappen are a clear margin ahead of Ferrari, who are clearly faster than Mercedes. Also worth noting both Aston Martins finished behind both Saubers.

Norris was gifted the win by Piastri swapping over, with Verstappen passing Leclerc for 3rd and 4th. Sainz was next, then Russell and Gasly (these later two separated by big gaps). Perez was only half a second behind Gasly come the end and snaffled the final point.

 

Qualifying proper was rained off yesterday, which was rather disappointing. It was rescheduled to 10.30am this morning, with the race also brought forward to 3.30pm, in a bit to avoid the worst of the rain (it’s still expected throughout the day, though).



From F1 Gamer (YouTube): for maximising downforce, McLaren have removed their upgraded rear wing for one with a ton of downforce.

Qualifying was more than a little eventful with no fewer than five red flags (Sainz, both Williams and both Aston Martins giving their engineers a bit of extra work to do).

Q1 saw Colapinto bury his Williams into a barrier, although damage could’ve been worse. It also saw Hamilton fail to progress due to his car being on a knife edge. Both Haas drivers got eliminated, which was really surprising. Zhou Guanyu was last, which was not.

In Q2 Dutchmen were annoyed by the 40s it took for a red flag to emerge for either Stroll or Sainz (we had five red flags, I forget all the details). This was enough for Norris and many others to complete laps but not for Verstappen. Accordingly, he was 12th, one place ahead of Perez, before the penalty is applied. Bottas was the fastest eliminated at this stage. Good stuff from the Finn. Sainz crashed out and should start 14th, while Gasly was slowest.

Q3 had multiple red flags, meaning both Aston Martins were ‘in’ the session but neither completed a lap (Stroll getting his red flag before the session, Alonso during it). Albon was in second when he had a huge crash which annihilated the rear of his car and destroyed the front left two. With Williams already working on Colapinto’s more lightly damaged vehicle those engineers are really going to earn their salaries.

Norris looked like the man to beat, and so he proved, stamping his authority on qualifying with pole position, a tenth and a half ahead of Russell. The second Briton was very fast but his car looked twitchy.

Next we have the unexpected trio of Tsunoda, Ocon, and Lawson, with big implications for the battle amid the midfield (especially with Williams’ double crash and Haas’ double Q1 elimination). Leclerc ended up 6th, which also means Ferrari’s title hopes suffered a setback. Albon is notionally 7th but we’ll see if he even starts (it seems he will not be starting), while Piastri languished in 8th due to messing up his final lap. Alonso and Stroll are the theoretical fifth row.


Note, Verstappen has a 5 place grid penalty for taking a new engine. Rain is expected. The question is whether it’s light or heavy.


Early Betting Thoughts

Verstappen, win
Piastri, podium
Low leader gap at the end of the race
Not many classified
Bottas, points
Hulkenberg, points


Verstappen was easily fast enough to make it through but got screwed over by a red flag. He qualified 12th but starts 17th due to his penalty. Verstappen is 14.5 to win with Betfair, and this is worth considering. He was very fast in the sprint race (dry) and also looking good in the wet during qualifying. Bad luck alone consigned him to 17th on the grid and he’s got every chance of advancing. He’s 11 with Ladbrokes, which can be backed each way and may be the better bet.

Piastri was very fast but outclassed in Q3 but Norris. Could’ve easily been second but borked his second lap (the second lap being the faster). He’s 2.1 for a podium, which is short but may yet be value.

We could well end under a safety car which would minimise the distance the leader wins by. Alas, the market did not materialise in time.

With five cars being worked on between qualifying and the race start, and incidents galore, it’s easy to see a clusterfudge into the first corner and many crashes throughout the race. Again, the market wasn't up when I had to post this.

I’d want tasty odds on Bottas scoring but he was very impressive in qualifying and may also benefit from attrition if the race is nice and wet. If it’s drier, he’ll be compromised by driving a wheelybin. Bottas is 3.5 for points. Too short, given his car.

Hulkenberg did a lot worse in qualifying than I anticipated, although this was mostly down to screwing up his final lap. Also, he was at his best on a wet but drying surface back when he got pole here, and the race is expected to be wet but drier than qualifying, so that may play into his hands. Hulkenberg is 4.5 for points (4.9 with Betfair), and starts 19th. Bit tempted.


Unfortunately, even at 2.37pm, not all the markets were up and I wanted to get this blog made.

So, my tip is Verstappen to win at 13 (the odds have fallen, alas), hedged at 3.

[For my own amusement I backed Hulkenberg with a tiny sum on Ladbrokes at 1,001 but this is only pence so it’s not counting towards the official tips].


Morris Dancer